TJFriedGal
1.8K posts

TJFriedGal
@TjFried
law history humor; repost does not always mean endorsement;

JUST IN: Iran moved its uranium into a mountain. The biggest conventional bomb on Earth cannot reach it. Fox News reported on 11th March, citing US intelligence, that Iran has relocated its remaining enriched uranium stockpile to the facility known as Pickaxe Mountain, Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā, a tunnel complex buried 80 to 100 metres deep in granite bedrock one mile south of Natanz. CSIS satellite imagery from February confirms accelerated construction: multiple tunnel portals, concrete sarcophagus shields over entrances, security walls, heavy machinery, and spoil piles indicating rapid interior expansion since the 2025 strikes destroyed Iran’s above-ground enrichment infrastructure. The GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, the weapon that hit Parchin, weighs 30,000 pounds. It penetrates up to 200 feet of earth or 60 feet of reinforced concrete. Granite is neither earth nor concrete. It is igneous rock with a compressive strength that exceeds both. One hundred metres of granite is 328 feet. The GBU-57’s maximum earth penetration is 200 feet. The uranium sits 128 feet beyond the reach of the most powerful conventional weapon the United States possesses. Fourteen GBU-57s were dropped on Iranian nuclear sites during Operation Midnight Hammer in 2025. The strikes destroyed centrifuge halls. They did not destroy the programme. They taught Iran where the ceiling was, and Iran built beneath it. Every bomb that hit Fordow and Natanz was a lesson in depth. Pickaxe Mountain is the final exam: a facility designed specifically to survive the weapon designed specifically to destroy it. The IAEA estimated 440.9 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium before the war. After the strikes, Grossi assessed approximately 200 kilograms may remain. That material, seven to eleven nuclear weapons’ worth at one week’s further enrichment, is now inside a granite mountain that no bomb can penetrate and no inspector can enter because Iran has denied IAEA access to every site struck since 28 February. The war’s existential minimum was defined by Defence Secretary Hegseth: no nukes. The nuclear infrastructure must be destroyed with or without regime change. The GBU-57 was the instrument. Pickaxe Mountain is the limit. The instrument has met a material it cannot defeat. The existential minimum has hit a ceiling of stone. What remains is a decision the United States has never made in the nuclear age. The material cannot be destroyed from the air. It can only be reached through the door. Special forces insertion into a tunnel complex defended by IRGC units operating under the Mosaic Doctrine, with sealed orders, inside a country whose 31 autonomous commands have been firing continuously for fourteen days. The Pentagon is weighing this option. Fox’s Jesse Watters reported it as a “near-impenetrable site requiring potential special forces insertion.” The language is careful. The implication is not. A ground operation to seize enriched uranium from a granite bunker inside hostile territory would be the most consequential special forces mission since Abbottabad. Except Abbottabad was one compound, one target, one night. Pickaxe Mountain is a tunnel system buried under 100 metres of rock, defended by a military that cannot surrender because its commander is a wounded man issuing orders from a hospital bed through a television anchor, and its doctrine was designed to fight without him. The bomb cannot reach it. The inspectors cannot enter it. The Supreme Leader will not open it. The material inside is seven days from becoming a weapon. And the mountain does not negotiate. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…


I want to correct something I said last night. The bombs thrown in New York City over the weekend by ISIS inspired attackers was thrown into a crowd of anti-Muslim protestors and not specifically targeted at Mayor Mamdani. That wording was inaccurate and I didn’t catch it ahead of time. I apologize for the error.

לכבוד המאורע החגיגי והלא מפתיע שבו הפרקליט הצבאי הורה לבטל את כתב האישום בפרשת ההתעללות של כוח 100 בעציר אחד בשדה תימן, הכנו לכם שרשור עדויות חיילים על התעללות בשדה תימן. או כפי שאמר לנו אחד העדים, "אני יודע שזה קרה, אני יודע שיש לנו מתקן עינויים". מתחילים haaretz.co.il/news/politics/…

לכבוד המאורע החגיגי והלא מפתיע שבו הפרקליט הצבאי הורה לבטל את כתב האישום בפרשת ההתעללות של כוח 100 בעציר אחד בשדה תימן, הכנו לכם שרשור עדויות חיילים על התעללות בשדה תימן. או כפי שאמר לנו אחד העדים, "אני יודע שזה קרה, אני יודע שיש לנו מתקן עינויים". מתחילים haaretz.co.il/news/politics/…


Walid Khalidi, a towering Palestinian historian, has died. He built the Institute for Palestine Studies @PalStudies, a key engine in the Palestinian intellectual world. Here is his monumental (and profoundly moving) survey of villages destroyed in 1948. palestine-studies.org/en/node/1649445






The most important number in this war is not the oil price or the casualty count. It is $2,500. That is what a Ukrainian interceptor drone costs. It flies into an incoming Shahed and destroys it midair. The Shahed costs Iran roughly $30,000. A Patriot PAC-3 missile costs $3 to $13 million depending on the variant. Standard doctrine fires two Patriots per incoming drone to maximize kill probability. Ukraine has been fighting this exact cost war for four years. Russia launched 54,538 Shahed type drones at Ukraine in 2025 alone. Ukrainian forces shot down over ninety percent of them. By February 2026, interceptor drones accounted for thirty percent of all Russian aerial targets destroyed, with a 68 percent success rate per engagement and a single night record of 64 Shaheds downed by interceptors alone. Now look at the Gulf. Iran has launched over 2,000 Shaheds across the Middle East since February 28. The UAE alone detected 1,072 drones in the first week. Seventy one penetrated, a 93 percent interception rate that sounds impressive until you calculate what it cost. Gulf states and American forces are using Patriot interceptors, THAAD rounds, and ship based missiles to kill $30,000 drones. At two interceptors per target and conservative missile pricing, the defense is spending between 100 and 500 times what the attacker spends per engagement. Iran can sustain this. The defenders cannot. That is why Zelenskyy’s March 5 announcement matters more than any military briefing this week. Ukraine is sending specialists and the AI enabled Merops interceptor system to the Gulf. The Financial Times confirmed the Pentagon and at least one Gulf government are in talks to buy Ukrainian interceptors. Trump told Reuters he would accept help from any country. The penetrations that occurred tell their own story. An Iranian drone destroyed a $1.1 billion early warning radar in Qatar. The Ras Tanura refinery in Saudi Arabia halted 550,000 barrels per day of production after a debris fire. The US embassy in Riyadh was hit. The Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain took a strike. Ninety three percent interception. Seven percent penetration. And that seven percent destroyed a billion dollar radar, shut down half a million barrels of daily refining, and hit an embassy. The math is brutal. If Iran launches 300 drones daily and seven percent penetrate, that is 21 hits across the Gulf every day. The cost to Iran is $9 million. The cost to defenders in interceptor munitions alone exceeds $500 million. Thirty days of that arithmetic and either the interceptor inventory is empty or the budget is. Ukraine cracked this equation by replacing million dollar missiles with thousand dollar drones. The specialists arriving carry four years of combat data against the exact weapon. They know its radar signature, its flight profile, its GPS vulnerability, and every modification Russia made since 2022. Nobody knows the Shahed better than the people it has been trying to kill every night for four years. They are on their way to the Gulf. The arithmetic changes the day they arrive. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

President Trump ousts Kristi Noem as Homeland Security chief and names Oklahoma Sen. Markwayne Mullin as her replacement. cnn.it/4b76kPY



🚨🇮🇷🇶🇦 Patriot missiles lighting up the sky over Doha, Qatar. This has been the view from Qatar all week.

It’s a shame that @DarioAmodei is a liar and has a God-complex. He wants nothing more than to try to personally control the US Military and is ok putting our nation’s safety at risk. The @DeptofWar will ALWAYS adhere to the law but not bend to whims of any one for-profit tech company.

