tobi lutke

Yea that was a fun one. Thank you for celebrating the glory of entrepreneurship, David.

only possible because Epic won their law suite against Apple.

verse:// the video game browser just dropped

@scottastevenson Some people can do that. Those will not work for CPP. What would they.

One of the only things I've disagreed with you on :) Passive Investing was brilliant when it was a small part of the market, but now the majority of the market is passives. This mathematically can't work. There is no way "Everyone buys asset X, without regard for the price of X", can work longterm. It doesn't matter if X is the S&P500. There have been many bubbles and busts where X was a "diversified basket of assets", and people thought that because it was a diverse basket their risk would be limited. Subprime mortgage crisis was the same thing: people buying a diversified basket of goods without regard for price/risk of the underlying assets Michael Burry does a great breakdown here on why Passive Investing will break: seekingalpha.com/article/457163… One of his compelling points, is that 1 dollar invested in the S&P500 is getting amplified to 5 dollars due to a perverse feedback loop--and this is more extreme for larger cap stocks. Fundamentally, Passive Investing is not passive -- it is the greatest force pushing up stock prices today. The majority of millennials hit "buy" twice a month without regard for whether the price of the asset makes sense. Historically this worked, because you could rely on active investors to "price the market". But now there is no incentive for actives to do that. Actives don't actually care about pricing the market, they care about making money. The easiest way for actives to make money now is by front-running the passives, pushing up prices even further. If you know half of millennials are going to buy the S&P500 on Thursday, what do you do as an active? You buy before them with leverage and then sell them back the stock at an ever-escalating price, knowing that they will keep buying no matter how absurd the price gets. Michael Green (former Thiel money manager) also has a good lecture on this: youtube.com/watch?v=qRu0t6… One of the points he makes is that Passive Funds have become so massive that they couldn't make buys without moving the market and creating tracking error -- this caused regulations to loosen and to enables funds to buy futures rather than raw stock. Furthermore, the Shiller PE ratio is about to cross 2000's levels. The S&P500 will soon be overpriced to a level it has never been before. One of my biggest contrary bets is that Passive will meltdown the market in a way we have not seen before, in our lifetime. This does not mean that buying index funds is a bad move. It's like buying Bitcoin mid-cycle. There is a massive, leveraged flow of money continually buying index funds without regard to price. Why not ride the wave? I just aim to be one of the first people out when Passive does inevitably fail, and I hope CPP can hedge against that risk too.

@MirageWL8 absolutely everyone knew this would underperform passive when they changed it

This is embarrassing for Canada. But really we shouldn’t expect anything less, of course they’re going to underperform, just look at what the government invests in and how they handle their money. It’s a joke. Canadas pension program definitely flawed.

Imagine being this early

@MartinMLynch if its a job that doesn't create a product or service that other people want or need it's that

@tobi It's another data point that makes you wonder the degree to which many jobs are essentially a UBI scheme in disguise, poor performance being no barrier to continued employment. It seems to concentrate disproportionately (though certainly not exclusively) in government.

The idiot tax

@billmceachern its a tax on canada. redistribution of pension contributions to the laptop class at CPP

@tobi Idiot administration maybe. It is not taxing idiots. An idiot tax is lottery tickets, where users have choice.

BIG news out of Kitchener-Waterloo: the Ontario Superior Court has ruled that homelessness is an analogous ground for discrimination under s.15 of the Charter. This is a BIG step toward recognizing homeless people as an equity-seeking group under the law. Governments take note!

@grok @rosskay @grok get the specific data for canada real estate, compare against balanced portfolio of 50% S&P 30% TSX 20% bond and tbill

**No.** Stock market indexing (S&P 500 total return) has generally matched or outperformed unlevered real estate appreciation over the last 10, 20, and 30 years. - Last ~10–32 years: S&P 500 ~10–15% annualized (total return incl. dividends). - US housing prices: ~5–5.5% appreciation. - REITs: competitive at ~10–12% in some 20-year windows, but recent 10-year periods often lag stocks. - Leveraged rentals: can deliver 8–12% on equity with strong management/cash flow, but after maintenance, vacancies, taxes, and effort—not passive. Canada data shows similar trends: TSX/equities edged out real estate in 25–34 year periods. Indexing wins for low-cost, diversified, hands-off exposure. Location, leverage, and timing matter hugely for individual RE.

CPP underperforms passive indexing. It should have 5 employees, ideally all on vacation most of the time.

@rosskay @grok has rental and real estate outperformed stock market indexing in the last 10, 20, or 30 years?

@tobi Mortgages and Purpose built Rental housing guarantees they outperform the stock market and of course with zero risk. Why they refuse to do it I cannot say since taxpayers are already guaranteeing those returns for others.

It’s not possible to attract the kind of people who can outperform an index to work at a pension fund for any real amount of time. OMERS outperformed index for a little while while it had a good venture arm but this never lasts. This isn’t a problem. They can just optimize for low fees and index. But if they don’t do that they are stealing money from future pensioners.

@tobi It should own the retirement and affordable housing stock. It should have 1000s of employees to ensure the 8% guaranteed taxpayer backed return is maintained. Imagine instead of housing a nation at a 8% return gambling on stocks?

The RCMP told Juno News in an exclusive statement that it has engaged its legal team after a CBC sting lured veterans of the force under false pretenses and humiliated them on stage. junonews.com/p/exclusive-rc…

Canada's week recap: * US pauses the US-Canada Permanent Joint Board on Defense as Mark Carney hasn't delivered a plan to hit NATO new targets as agreed to in The Hague Leaders Summit. * Canada will spend $64M Euros on military infrastructure development in Latvia. * Federal government will invest $258.1 million to protect whales. * Danielle Smith announces a referendum question if to have a question on referendum. * CRTC to require online streamers to pay 15% of annual revenues to support Canadian content. * Canada recorded 11,195 new international students arrived on Q1, 2026. New workers 36,245, 8,240 TFW, 28,295 IMP. * Canadian Truck Dealer Association raises the alarm that dealers can't import new models of heavy trucks from the US because Canada hasn't changed the emissions certification from EPA to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, who does it now. * PBO estimates governments support to host the FIFA Men's World Cup will cost $1.066B. $82M per game. * Matawinie Mine in Quebec breaks ground. Will be one of the largest graphite mines in G7. * Canadian residents return trips from the US decreased 6.4% y/y in March. US residents trips to Canada decreased 4.4%. * CMHC data shows that completed and unsold new homes are at record high. * Total value of building permits increased 10.3% in March. * Residential construction intentions decreased by 3.3%. * CPI increased to 2.8% in April y/y, up from March's 2.4%. * Retail trade increased 0.9% to $72.7B in March. * Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI), rose 2.0% m/m in April and increased 11.4% y/y * Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI), gained 2.6% m/m and rose 31.6% y/y. * Number of Canadians receiving EI increased by 2,300 to 548,000. *  EI beneficiaries were up by 44,000 over the last 12 months. * British Columbia had the largest increase in EI recipients with 2,300. * Canadian household debt grows to $3.24T.

Bill C-22, the "Lawful Access Act", is raising alarm bells across the country. It may cost 🇨🇦 billions in industry. In 2018, 🇦🇺 implemented a similar legislation titled TOLA (the Telecommunications and Other Legislation Amendment). A study commissioned following implementation demonstrates the results were devastating to 🇦🇺's tech sector. The problem is, 🇨🇦 is much more exposed than Australia ever could be.

@etnshow @NicoRosberg fun chat! Overdue.

F1 World Champion Nico Rosberg (@NicoRosberg) shares he's been cold emailing Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke (@tobi) for three years and that his competitive edge to success is having no fear of failing: "I'm cold emailing all the time and I get rejected 90% of the time...Rosberg Ventures is one of those chances because actually it was like 90% sure it's going to fail." "I've been trying to reach Tobi Lütke, the CEO founder of Shopify. He's a race car driver so that of course is my best angle and I've been trying for 3 years." "Guessing emails, his EA, common friends, everything...could not get him to even acknowledge or write me once." "And I was on the phone with him yesterday".

And of course it’s so much worse. And of course @mgeist has the definitive piece on it. michaelgeist.ca/2026/05/the-on…

Our regulators have lost the plot. Literally, figuratively, and metaphorically.

My kids went through a phase of calling me a monger monger. They thought it was hilariously clever