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The #uranium bull case keeps strengthening, and the market structure is doing most of the work. Here is what is going on 👇 Utilities are materially undercontracted. For years, replacement rates have sat well below 100%, meaning utilities have not been contracting enough uranium to replace what their reactors consume annually. The shortfall has been bridged by inventories, secondary supply, and spot purchases — all of which are finite or declining. This strategy cannot persist. Inventories don’t replenish themselves, secondary supplies are shrinking, and new mine supply is slow, capital-intensive, and politically constrained. At the same time, global nuclear demand is rising, driven by life extensions, uprates, restarts, and new builds — now increasingly framed around energy security, not just decarbonization. Despite this, term contracting until a few months ago had not improved at all. Utilities remained cautious, but each year of under-contracting has added to the future deficit. November 2025 suddenly saw high volumes — 27 Mlbs, well above replacement rates. Whether this marks a true trend shift remains to be confirmed, but either way, utilities will have to move to correct the future deficit. When they do, the volumes required won’t be small — and the available supply, especially Tier-1 production, will already be spoken for years in advance. Producers appear to understand this dynamic. They remain disciplined, prioritizing contract quality and balance sheets over chasing volume. This removes the safety valve where higher prices would immediately bring new supply online. Meanwhile, financial demand has returned, with #SPUT likely buying its full allowed 9 Mlbs this year. As prices take off, speculators such as hedge funds and others will almost certainly be attracted to uranium. Looking ahead, I expect spot availability to be thin, with even marginal buying capable of moving prices. Every pound absorbed today is one less pound available when utilities are forced to act. This is why the uranium market will not move linearly. It builds pressure quietly — then releases it suddenly. Price isn’t the problem. Supply is. And the longer utilities wait, the higher the eventual clearing price is likely to be. Slow at first… then all at once. ⚛️🔥 Just my Saturday thoughts, please do your own DD.