MarketMaverick

@herbertong That’s before reporting, what a disappointment on everything. Delay after delay as always

Wdbush's Dan Ives on $TSLA earnings 👇 • Story shifting → “Physical AI” (robotaxi, Optimus, AI chips, energy) • Still need fundamentals: demand + margins (watch 17%) • CapEx in focus, incl. Terafab spend • PT: $600, sees TSLA as AI leader w/ Nvidia Key catalyst: clear timelines + city-by-city robotaxi rollout. @DivesTech

@farzyness What’s new? Always too optimistic then reset expectation year after year, not the first time. Your bulls can keep pumping with Elon but you can’t ignore the fact it’s STILL not happening. And god knows when after v15, there is always v16 too.

My thoughts on Tesla’s Q1 2026 earnings: It’s become clear that 2026 will not be the breakthrough year that Tesla investors would’ve hoped - at least from an earnings perspective. There’s been a softening of language on the biggest levers that Tesla will pull to materially increase its valuation. Robotaxi scale was softened to “depends on what you mean by scale”. Optimus in any meaningful volume is not happening until 2027 due to the time it takes to revamp the Fremont line (understandable). The showcase of the Bot is being reserved until summer of this year - which could get pushed out again. On the positive end, demand for Tesla vehicles appears to be increasing, and adoption of FSD is accelerating. This can be seen in the auto margins, which allowed Tesla to have one of their best in a while in a seasonally depressed quarter. What we should see is as Tesla’s production re-accelerates, the cost per unit of production will come down, while the net price per vehicle will go up as more and more people purchase FSD subscriptions. This means that margins on the auto business should continue to rise. This should give Tesla the best large-scale auto margins in the world into 2027. This should materially increase again when Tesla releases Unsupervised FSD for the HW4 fleet, which my guess is will come at a premium. I find it hard to see Tesla charging $99 a month for a personal chauffeur where you no longer have to pay attention. The premium on that is far greater. Imagine being able to do whatever you want in your car while it takes you to point A to point B. Big deal! Another positive (depending how you look at it) is that there’s maximum clarity on HW3 vehicles not achieving Unsupervised, and Tesla will a) offer a discounted trade-in rate on HW3 vehicles that purchased FSD outright and b) will work to upgrade the vehicles to HW4 so that they can be Unsupervised. This is because a car that is a Robotaxi is worth FAR MORE than one that isn’t, and even if the cost to retrofit a HW3 car was $10k+ or more, Tesla would make the money back (and then some) in fares. Basically a no brainer, if the path for an upgrade actually exists, which now we’ve gotten confirmation that there is. In the next 12 months, I think Tesla’s biggest catalyst (by far) is the adoption of FSD on a growing fleet of vehicles that will eventually go unsupervised, which will give Tesla recurring revenue at 80%+ margin on a fleet of vehicles that will continue to grow over time, and as regulations allow it. If you fast forward to the end of 2027, Tesla should be able to have over 5 million cars generating at least $99 per month in recurring monthly revenue, almost all of which drops down to the bottom line, because the cost of the hardware and compute is already baked into the business. That’s roughly $6 billion in net income per year added to the bottom line, and growing. That’s ~166 P/E at a $1T valuation on growing software revenue AND margins. To me, that seems pretty fair. Honestly, might even be undervalued. Just look at Palantir. This is while the company needs to invest heavily on CAPEX for Optimus, Cybercab, and Terafab, all of which are extremely important for the company’s long-term trajectory. The question now becomes how fast can Tesla materially increase FSD revenue at 80%+ while it waits to ramp Robotaxi & Optimus. Overall, IMO, very good quarter for the long term prospects. The acceleration in FSD adoption is a big signal that says Tesla is capable of capitalizing on recurring revenue, and as the software gets to unsupervised, it should increase materially in the coming quarters. But as far as the next 12 months go, it continues to be a waiting game on the biggest levers for Tesla. NFA. $TSLA

@EliteOptions2 Are you by any chance staying W hotel SH? I am here for the week too. Lol

Shanghai for the week. 📈 🇨🇳

@WesleyJMattox Yes load up

I'm growing more convinced that $CRCL is the best fundamental growth story over the next 12 months with the intersection of AI agents and payments. Do your own research.

@CuriousPejjy Total 2 cars… yes all

So wait... ALL of $TSLA's Robotaxis that rolled out in Houston & Dallas are UNSUPERVISED?! LIKE ALL?!

@Jason Because they can always produce more and they came out 2 at time… just like cockroaches, can you eliminate them?

Someone educate me as to why the US Navy can't eliminate Iran's “mosquito fleet.” I get these are small, fast speedboats, but can't they be quickly eliminated by helicopters and jets, as well as ship-mounted guns? How many of these do they even have?!

@dannycheng2022 Since when we were in bear market? Since when we have dropping 20% or more. If you don’t know when to sell or when to buy, it’s all useless content if you are just a long term perpetual bull. Everyone knows how to do that.

We are still in a bull market. Any dip can be quickly brought up.

@RoyLMattox @WesleyJMattox Buy the dip, don’t wait for too long.

This is how Wes and I see it. We are overbought in our indicators and extended in price in the leaders. We are looking to buy weakness. Ideally, the market consolidates and digests normally and the leading stocks "handle". If that picture perfect textbook happens, you can expect us to press the gas to "move the needle". If not perfect, we just sit. Most people have missed this move and there will be tremendous pressure to play catch up. We believe we have many of these leaders and they won't stay down for long regardless of what happens in the Strait of Hormuz.

@JOBhakdi It’s like asking Elon when Robotaxi will arrive in 2016…

Elon was right.

@elonmusk @niccruzpatane @SERobinsonJr Even they don’t it still doesn’t mean you have to do it. Just like Jensen said you don’t have to be good with everything. Sometimes you need to stay in focus. Do something that you are really good at it, you don’t need to own the world.

@SERobinsonJr TSMC just can’t make the staggeringly large number of chips needed! If they could, we would not need to do this.

TERAFAB: On the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) Q1 2026 earnings call, Chairman & CEO C.C. Wei said the following in regards to the Tesla/SpaceX Terafab Project. "Well, actually, both Intel and Tesla, they are TSMC’s customer. Again, they are our competitors, and we view Intel as our formidable competitors and do not underestimate them. Having said that, there are no shortcuts. The fundamental rule of the foundry game never change. They need the technology leadership, manufacturing excellence, and customer trust, and most of all, the service, which has been mentioned by Jensen. Again, let me say that it takes 2-3 years to build a new fab. No shortcuts. It takes another 1-2 years to ramp it up. Again, that’s a fundamental of foundry industry."

@McClellanOsc Both absolutely correct. Buy the pull back with full force.

The McClellan A-D Oscillator for just the stocks which make up the Nasdaq 100 Index is up to a nice high level. This has 2 meanings simultaneously. (1) Market is short term overbought, meriting at least a pause. (2) Uptrends do not typically end with this condition.

@Jake__Wujastyk So far I have never seen anyone correctly predicted bitcoin. Including some of the very best technician on Wall Street. None so far.

#Bitcoin $84,000 is programmed in this weekend.

@elonmusk @Tesla_AI Great job!

Congrats to the @Tesla_AI chip design team on taping out AI5! AI6, Dojo3 & other exciting chips in work.

@dannycheng2022 I am sure you always buy the big one at the bottom. Most people are just full of it on X. What’s the point to lecture others after the fact? Or just holding PLTR from 200 to 130, then claim yourself as a long term investor. What’s the point?

Buying the bottom is meaningless without proper position sizing. A tiny allocation at the perfect low still yields little. What matters most is having the conviction to size up significantly when your thesis is strong!

@WesleyJMattox Need to clear 76k resistance first

Bitcoin speculators even more crowded long (blue bars). There is some debate about who is the smart money in the futures data. Stay tuned!

@bluechipdaily The catch up trade finally.

Strong moves in the Mag 7 today. Getting this group back on track is key for new index highs. $META +4% $AMZN $GOOG $TSLA +3% $NVDA $MSFT +2.6%+

@alex_avoigt You believe? Market bottom on 3/30. You like half month late… oh because Tesla just moved.

I believe we’ve reached the bottom of $TSLA at around $338, and the stock will now test the upper resistance of the downtrend channel (still bearish). It probably won’t break through immediately and may test lower levels first, but a higher low is forming, and the stock will build a base to reach a higher high in 2026 that represents an all-time high.

@zerohedge Wait a second here, need to clear 76k AGAIN first

Bitcoin breaks out above the post-October high resistance. Retest of $90K next

@MarkNewtonCMT @IBDinvestors @marketsurge Mark is absolutely correct, stay with the strong momentum, Mag 7 are breaking out. Watch out the TD 9 sell setup in the meantime.

For those trying to pick a bottom in Software, i would point you to $DELL which looks far more attractive near-term breaking out of a multi-month base & pushing back to new highs @IBDinvestors @marketsurge Software should eventually gain its footing, but w/ Semis back at new highs and many Tech Hardware doing just fine, it's important not to always expect the immediate mean reversion. #IBDPartner

@pdicarlotrader I also said don’t be too conservative once above 200 days. After today’s run we are gonna take little consolidation. TD 9 sell setup for most indexes today. This will be your last time to load the truck.

$SPY is ripping right through that smart money zone. In the article I said I didn’t trust this move and was cautious, but I also said we weren’t buying puts. The fund stayed fully long. We stuck to the system. Monthly BX is increasing again. That is constructive, but we need to wait until the end of April to confirm the next 6–12 month bull cycle. This is why we follow the plan and keep trading long, even while staying objective about potential sell offs. We didn’t short. We didn’t overreact. Now we are being rewarded for that discipline. I’m hoping this was the bottom, but hope is not a plan. We will see how the month closes.