@TheFoxView There’s enough fuel for a push higher - I think the CME gap tops us out this week. Wednesday is usually a good performing day for BTC so 🙏
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Tony Kelly
849 posts
@TonyKellyDublin exactly, need to wait for a clean breakout and acceptance above the key level for confirmation. what's your take though - do you think we push higher or reject here?
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BUYERS AREN’T GIVING UP
looks like $BTC may have found support around $76k
okay bulls - prove it
give us a clean break above $77,400 and let’s go fill the gap
until then, I’m not buying these green candles
price is sitting right at the key level to watch
feels like a breakout from this range is getting close
and we’ve got catalysts ahead:
EIA data today - confirmation or denial of the oil deficit narrative.
plus FOMC minutes - tone matters
either one can flip sentiment fast
looks like we won’t be bored
what’s your play?
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@Stefan_B_Trades When you find a job you love, you’ll never work a day in your life 🤝
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$BTC still holding the lows here.
As mentioned in my Bitcoin analysis yesterday, as long as the 76K PDL holds my intraday bias is bullish.
This means I'm still in the long as explained, and as long as this 76.1K PDL holds, I'm holding onto it. Already trading in nice profit.
Also, the 77.4K PDH is taken, which means there's a high probability we hold the 76.1K PDL today.
I'm still intraday bullish and comfortably long. I'm willing to add a long if we get a sweep of the 76.5K IRL + my entry trigger (no trigger no trade).
If the daily lows keep being protected, I'm hoping to see bullish orderflow towards the buy-side liquidity above us.
My "best case" bullish target for this week is 79K, I'll be 80% TP'd on the potential way up.
If we pump from here, I may scalp into continuations by monitoring local ordeflow. But not too eager since I'm positioned already.
Let's see what this Wednesday brings.
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@TheFoxView Some good perspective 🫡 everyone is max long here expecting a bounce and to short the 78.5k / 79k zone, when everyone is positioned the same way the market tends to do the opposite. Additionally, DAT stock prices are bleeding every day 🤷♂️
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CORRECTION OVER?
$BTC has rallied since February into the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement - one of the most important technical levels
that’s a deep pullback, but it doesn’t automatically mean the broader downtrend is broken
when price retraces to 0.618 and holds, it can signal continuation to the upside
but this time, it’s failing to hold
the 0.618 often acts as a self‑fulfilling level - millions of traders watch it, cluster orders there, and price reacts
and it did
at the same time, ETF outflows continue. capital keeps leaving the market right at this zone
if everyone is selling here, who’s stepping in to buy?
so what’s your take - was this entire move up just a correction within a broader downtrend?
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@TheFoxView Difficult to predict with the ETF outflows, NY will show the way! Once we sweep the lows I’d try a long at the monthly open to see if we can reach the London high from yesterday
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SELLERS DEFENDING THE KEY LEVEL
$BTC bounced from 76k on positive Middle East headlines
yes, there was a reaction, but still no reclaim of the key level
as long as we’re below it, sellers stay in control
the descending trendline was tested - and held
Bitcoin ETF outflows continue as well. yesterday alone - $648.6M
that’s voting with money. when fear rises, capital leaves
technically, the risk of a move toward 75k remains
the market needs a string of genuinely bullish catalysts to regain momentum
until then, upside is questionable
what’s your take?
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@KhonshuArc $76k Support is an illusion - liquidity needs to be engineered before the next directional move. The apex predator decided it was low enough to allow longs to re-enter.
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$BTC 🩸 (Follow-up)
Looking at this chart, I genuinely don’t understand why people are so surprised by the dip… or why some suddenly want to short here.
I’ve said this many times already:
75K–76.8K is not the level you chase shorts. That’s the type of zone where you start watching for longs and reaction plays. And look closely at price behavior.
We got the flush into 76K but after that? Price didn’t continue collapsing lower.
Instead, candles started compressing near the lows, downside follow-through weakened, and price began reacting rather than expanding aggressively lower.
That matters.
Because when a market truly wants immediate continuation down, you normally see stronger acceptance below support not hesitation and reactive buying around these levels.
Current picture:
→ 76K region actively reacting
→ Sellers losing some immediate follow-through after the flush
→ Market trying to stabilize after sharp downside expansion
→ 75.6K remains important if price pushes lower
→ 74K–74.2K remains the deeper support cluster below
The mistake many make is shorting after the emotional move already happened.
Risk/reward changes down here.
My bias remains clear:
I am long from this region.
Not because I think the entire market has magically reversed overnight but because, from a trading perspective, this zone still offers a reasonable reaction setup.
My target remains a move back toward 78K–80K, with 79.5K being the main level I’m watching.
That’s the area I expect price to test if this stabilization continues.
If buyers can reclaim and build above that region, then we can reassess higher. Until then, I still view this as a reaction zone for upside relief not a place to aggressively chase fresh shorts.
@KhonshuArc@KhonshuArc
$BTC 🩸 (Follow-up) The downside continuation we discussed is still in play, but now $BTC is approaching the first major reaction area we mapped previously. Price has now tapped directly into the 76.8K region while still trading below the 200 EMA (81.8K -82k), which continues acting as heavy HTF resistance. So far, nothing has structurally changed yet. The market is still printing weak relief attempts, lower highs, and reactive bounces instead of strong reclaim candles. What’s important now is understanding the shift in behavior: Previously, BTC was compressing under resistance. Now it’s searching for equilibrium after the breakdown. That’s a completely different environment. I did take a long around 78K expecting a relief move upward from the reaction zone, but structure failed and I got stopped out. No issue with that invalidation is part of trading. Now I’m looking to re-enter again, but only if price starts showing proper stabilization instead of emotional bouncing. Current structure: → BTC still below the 200 EMA → 76.8K reacting as short-term support → 75.6K remains the next major liquidity zone → 74K–74.2K still the key HTF support cluster below For bulls, reclaiming back above the broken 78K–80K region is still the first real sign of strength. Until then, this remains a market trying to stabilize after expansion, not a confirmed recovery structure. The main thing I’m watching now is whether BTC builds acceptance around these lower zones… or continues cascading toward the deeper liquidity areas we discussed previously. My Bias: 75k - 76.8k should hold and push back above 79.5k .
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@Stefan_B_Trades Brilliant article - it shows you put the time and effort into them. Honestly 👏
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@TheFoxView I think we pump today to clear some imbalances and late shorts, 79k area max this week before downtrend resumes
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MONDAY BREAKDOWN
Monday kicked off with a clean break below support - and a close under it. not a good look for bulls
odds now favor a move toward $75k
but let’s be honest - that level isn’t technically that strong. we’ve seen reactions there, sure, but not enough to call it major support. maybe psychologically, since people love round numbers
the more meaningful level sits at $73,700. with last week’s bearish close, that zone becomes the priority target
at the same time, there’s still a large CME gap above - one of the last before CME moves to 24/7 trading on May 29
best move right now is to wait for the NY session before making further decisions
so what do you think - trend reversal or just a correction?
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@LennaertSnyder It’s a funny because I can sit through drawdown on a short and it wouldn’t bother me, any drawdown on a long and I’m almost sweating! PTSD from 10/10 I think 🫣 all the best 🫡
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@TonyKellyDublin I understand and that entry is also valid. I like the range extremes the most, but it’s best to follow the system that works for you!
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Longed $BTC here.
As described in my Bitcoin analysis this morning, we're trading in a strong long-POI so I waited on my trigger.
I shared my Breakout terminal below so you can see my exact entry and stop-loss.
After sweeping all internal range liquidity, the sweep-candle closed strong and I entered on the 15M engulfing.
Price pumped beautifully so I took profits and kept a % open as a potential runner.
Imo winning on Monday is winning the week because you collect risk-money for the rest of the week.
Still loving the trading experience and execution on @breakoutprop.
Lennaert Snyder@LennaertSnyder
$BTC fresh start of a new trading week. To begin with, Bitcoin took out the previous daily and weekly low. Because of the above, the probability of gaining the 82.3K previous weekly high this week is low. Same goes for gaining the 78.6K previous daily high today. Looking at the trend, my intra-day bias is bearish since we're forming an obvious bearish trend after rejecting 82.8K. But, we're testing very interesting HTF levels that are long-POI's for me. We filled a daily imbalance in the range extremes + around the monthly open price. Looking for scalp-longs locally according to your system is totally valid imo. I'm approaching these longs as intra-day bounces within the local downtrend. I'm not shorting support of course, so for potential continuation shorts I'm watching the reaction after we test the 77.8K imbalance. If we do gain the 78.6K PDH today, it would mean we get a daily clearout candle, which is a bullish sign. So longing the continuation when this happens. I'm still comfortably short and willing to add after testing quality POI's. Good luck this week everyone.
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@LennaertSnyder I entered at $76850 before the sweep and decided to trim my position in case NY wanted to teleport down to 75k. Always wait for the sweep!! Hopefully a good week of trading 🤝
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@TonyKellyDublin Thats how we like it! From liquidity point to liquidity point. 🤝
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@LennaertSnyder Had a feeling it would act as bait to engineer liquidity for the dump. Lower still to come I reckon.
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@TonyKellyDublin There’s a good probability we fill the CME of course. But for me it acts as an extra confluence to the plan I already have.
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$BTC forecast for next week looks interesting.
It’s currently trading in a daily imbalance that lays between 76.7K - 78K.
For me this is a POI for longs, so if I get my trigger next week I’ll give it a shot.
Losing the 75K low could trigger a bigger flush due to the daily “stairway” up imo.
I’m currently only positioned short on Bitcoin as I shared this week.
Let’s see if we get some good setups next week.
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