Matthew Tostevin

@RnaudBertrand @HelenClarkNZ The thing with escalation is that it’s not about someone blinking. Escalation does not raise questions over whether a war makes sense, it reinforces the justification for it.

Iran seems to be following a strategy of unveiling more and more impressive military capabilities as the war goes on. They just fired long-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia, one of the most strategically significant U.S. military bases in the world (hosting B-52 bombers, nuclear subs, etc.), nearly 5,000km away from them in the middle of the Indian ocean 👇. Diego Garcia has never been hit before in any war in its 5 decades of existence, and no-one knew Iran had these types of capabilities (Iran themselves said their ballistic missile range was limited to 2,000 kilometers). Two days ago, they also took down an "unkillable" F-35 fifth-generation fighter jet, something which has never happened before (militarywatchmagazine.com/article/footag…). They've also managed to take control of the world's most strategic oil chokepoint, and have proven they can hit any strategic target in the wider Middle-East, even the most protected ones (such as Israel's Haifa oil refinery: aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/19…). All in all, it sounds almost unbelievable but Iran appears to have a genuine form of escalation dominance over the United States military, with its trillion dollar budget. In a very real way, it's even more impressive than Vietnam or Afghanistan: those countries resisted a superpower, Iran appears to be competing with one. It also makes you think: what comes next? And that's exactly what escalation dominance is all about: keep raising the stakes until the other side blinks. It's about making Trump think "wait, I thought I was picking a fight with the skinny kid and turns out he's Bruce Lee."

@zriboua Indeed. And relying on fantasies is not only misguided but also dangerous.

It never existed, it was a fantasy.

Myanmar junta air strike on gold miners. At least three bodies have been found but an unknown number of others are dead. Same junta as is trying to build credibility after elections widely dismissed as a sham. #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

Not even halfway into March and the toll announced by Myanmar's underground National Unity Government is a bloody one as the junta seeks to regain control of the country #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

@viviannereim @lpolgreen “Undoubtedly, one reason that almost all of the civilians killed have been foreign nationals is that they make up a majority of the region’s population.”

We wrote about how migrant workers are facing the heaviest toll as war comes to the Gulf countries, which have faced a daily barrage of Iranian missile and drone attacks. At least 12 civilians have been killed. All but one of them were foreign nationals. nytimes.com/2026/03/10/wor…

@HoansSolo Does this assume current “peace time” production levels or factor in a possible increase?

A short- to mid-term military risk isn't the US running out of interceptors or PGMs in this conflict per se. It is the opportunity costs. This US-Israeli raiding approach to warfare, if it continues at the current operational tempo for weeks, could draw down INDOPACOM & EUCOM stocks that will take many years to replenish, further weakening US military readiness. Destroy Iran's military capabilities in 2026, and you may not be able to execute your preferred warfighting concept in a great power conflict in Europe or Asia for a couple of years. From a pure military capabilities perspective, this is bad news for conventional deterrence.

@jagowriter I suspect this may not be among their top concerns

Did the US and Israel anticipate the Shia backlash after Khammeni’s killing? Protests have erupted across South Asia in Pakistan and India.

@thantmyintu @glennboyes Do you think such thoughtful analysis is applied within the United States?

It’s hard not to come to the conclusion that underlying everything is an ingrained inability (in Washington, at least since Vietnam) to imagine non-Western (non-white) counties as complex societies, with their own set of stories, inhabited by people capable of the full spectrum of human emotion and rational thought (seemingly these days more rational thought).

@AquaShotsMedia @andreas_krieg Iran also interesting from Myanmar perspective. That’s where the junta has been getting a lot of its jet fuel.

@andreas_krieg @TostevinM As much as I hate that it's becoming acceptable to implement foreign regime change through military intervention... if it works, and the region doesn't totally destabilize, then we'll be grudgingly applauding the US and Mr. Trump. However, Iran may turn into Afghanistan or Iraq

“These attacks have created the strongest near-term unifying impulse the #Gulf has seen in years, because they cut across the region’s basic shared vulnerability: airspace, ports, energy infrastructure, and reliance on uninterrupted trade flows. I would describe the emerging unity as operational rather than political,” said @andreas_krieg, a Lecturer at King’s College London. newsweek.com/trump-iran-ara…

@AquaShotsMedia @andreas_krieg I think the difference from Afghanistan or Iraq is that there will be no U.S. forces on the ground trying to “nation build” - there might still be the chaos and internal bloodshed but I don’t think Trump would worry so much about that in the short term.

U.S. allies in Europe did not criticise U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and even Tehran's friends are so far just urging a return to diplomacy newsweek.com/world-reaction…

Sudan remains one of the world’s gravest crises. Ceasefires matter, but lasting peace needs locally led solutions. @UNDP empowers communities to lead their own recovery & rebuild trust. That’s how crisis response becomes durable. newsweek.com/most-violent-p… @Newsweek @TostevinM

Among the new parliamentarians after Myanmar's military-controlled election: former police brig-gen Tin Ko Ko, who entrapped our Reuters colleagues in 2017 by planting secret documents on them in a bid to stop reporting on atrocities against the Rohingya. burma.irrawaddy.com/news/2026/02/1…

A lot of work on this investigation but it doesn’t seem to find significant fault with @FrontierMM’s published articles. Guess it also serves junta interest when Myanmar’s media turn on each other

So Thailand's more progressive forces appear to have been outplayed on multiple fronts. Could that ever change or does the system make it impossible?

The swift congrats for Japanese PM @takaichi_sanae in Japanese from India's @narendramodi underlines the importance of the India-Japan relationship for the regional balance of power — and the shared outlook.

@InspiroQuest Japan faces potential societal collapse because birth rates are so low. Should it be prioritising a different sort of drive?

Here's how the Japanese restore inner drive in 72 hours: // Thread //

Five bitter years in Myanmar: tens of thousands of people killed, countless villages burned and livelihoods wrecked since the junta seized power. From daily protests to jungle warfare, the resistance goes on even if the world looks elsewhere. #WhatsHappeningInMyanmar