Matthew Mondello

Imagine being bearish when liquidity is increasing so much that we are outpacing IPO metrics from 2021 None of this will end well but first we melt up higher

Shocking stat of the day: Nvidia, $NVDA, Micron, $MU, Broadcom, $AVGO, and Applied Materials, $AMAT, are now expected to generate a record $430 billion in combined free cash flow (FCF) over the next 12 months. That would be more than TRIPLE the FCF they generated just 2 years ago. At the same time, the combined FCF of Amazon, $AMZN, Alphabet, $GOOGL, Meta, $META, Microsoft, $MSFT, and Oracle, $ORCL, is projected to turn negative for the first time on record. That would mark a massive reversal from the +$260 billion peak reported by these companies in 2024. This comes as AI-related CapEx by these 5 companies is estimated to surge to ~$1.8 trillion in 2026 and 2027 combined. Chipmakers are becoming cash machines, while AI giants are burning record amounts of capital.

BREAKING: The top 10 US stocks now account for 43% of the S&P 500’s market cap, near the highest on record. This percentage has been at or above 40% for the last 12 months. Over the last 10 years, the top 10's weighting in the S&P 500 has more than DOUBLED. At the same time, the proportion of the 250 smallest companies has halved, to ~7%, the lowest since at least 2014. To put this differently, the top 10 now account for more than 6 times the market cap of the smallest 250 firms in the S&P 500 index. A handful of stocks continue to effectively drive the entire market.

This has never happened before! Half of the Nasdaq stocks are already in the bear market territory while QQQ is 3.1% away from its AHT. Before this year, QQQ within 3% of its all-time high never coexisted with even 40% of members in bear markets. The historical norm near highs was 15–25%. Today: 48.5% at −3.1% from ATH — off the charts of the sample. Something big is about to happen.

“You don’t get rich by diversifying into 50 mediocre assets. You get rich by finding 2 or 3 asymmetric home runs.” ⚾️🏟️ — Stanley Druckenmiller

When I was 13 years old, I told my dad I wanted to become a Major League Baseball player. He looked at me and said, "You can... but we need a plan." So we sat down and made one. First, we created the big vision. Play in the Major Leagues. Then we worked backwards. We made a one-year plan. At the time, I wanted to make a better travel team and play in bigger tournaments. Then we made a season plan. Then a monthly plan. Then a weekly plan. Then a daily plan. Some days it was: - 50 swings to left-center. - 50 swings up the middle. - 50 swings to right-center. Other days it was: - Dry swings. - Push-ups. - Sit-ups. - Sprints. - Up-downs. Every week, we'd sit back down together. We'd look at the plan. Keep what was working. Change what wasn't. We repeated that process for years. Eventually... I played in the Major Leagues. Because here's one thing I learned from my dad: Dreams don't become reality because you have a vision. They become reality because you have a plan. Most players have goals. Very few have a system for reaching them. Thank you for reading, Jermaine Curtis P.S. - If you enjoyed this and thought it was helpful, please share it. (This tells me you want more content like this.)