Rick Castro

Stop chasing breakouts. Most of them fail. Instead, learn to trade the "Failed Breakdown." It’s the most consistent way to catch high-RR reversals on $ES and $NQ. The 4-step playbook: 🧵

$ES 5/4/2026 - Flip was above ES, VOL expansion all we needed was some headline risk and a failed break out trigger. Took short on the FBO of IBH today Check out the YT Live stream, tried the short early got stopped then 2nd entry paid 2:1

NQ 0DTE Flip: 27293.44 Call Walls: 28078.80 / 27949.66 Put Walls: 27492.45 / 27604.77 Delta: LONG_DELTA ATM GEX: -0.00B VIX: 17.68 Vol Regime: MED_VOL #0DTE #GEX #OrderFlow

ES 0DTE Flip: 7362.74 Call Walls: 7289.18 / 7321.35 Put Walls: 7202.55 / 7165.09 Delta: LONG_DELTA ATM GEX: 0.00B VIX: 17.68 Vol Regime: MED_VOL #0DTE #GEX #OrderFlow

📊 NQ Weekly GEX Profile Spot: 27835.75 Flip: 25075 Regime: LONG_DELTA #ES_F #Futures #Trading

📊 ES Weekly GEX Profile Spot: 7258.00 Flip: 6538 Regime: LONG_DELTA #ES_F #Futures #Trading

ES clamped to last week's VAH at 7170 all session, failed the push above, rotated back to pWk POC at 7130. Classic balance. Tomorrow: hold 7170+ or revisit 7120 VAL. That's the hinge. Full breakdown 👇 tradewrick.substack.com

4/24/2062 - Prob stat says ONH failed break out could be in play, I personally do not like this setup so will be skipping it given this is a potential multi day break out scenario on ES.

Why it worked: ONH break into call wall = liquidity sweep GEX resistance at 7175 rejected price twice 63% VWAP hit rate backed by 27 instances Magenta GEX support at 7160.25 held briefly on the way down Failed breakout + gamma confluence = edge Full details in substack in bio

Targets were mechanical: VWAP 7156 (63% hit rate per playcard) IBL 7151 (53.8% hit rate) 1STD 7143 Scaled at 7160 (above VWAP), 7151, final lot 7143. Given the statistical edge, I scaled rather than holding for hero targets. Probability > hope.

4/23/2026 Setup 02: ONH Failed Breakout Entry: 7166.50 (3 MES) Add: 7169.25 (2 MES) Exits: 7160 / 7151 / 7143 0.98:1 R:R, $320 realized Left 30% on table missing 7115 put wall Here's how it played out 🧵

@wisedan33 yes the context of the open per my probability scanner said mild bearish open. So the idea was to allow price ot show weakness in order to then target the IBL The way I allowed price to show me weakness was it reverting back to below vwap after having attempted to trend above.

@TradeWRick Hi. Thanks for sharing would love the set up criteria. The second trade was because the IBL was expected to be taken? Thanks in advance

Setup 01 triggered this morning at ONL 7149.50. Didn't take it. Traded the Zone B- fade instead and caught +$347.50 on 3 MES. Both setups worked. Both built on probabilities, not predictions. Here's the breakdown 🧵

Full breakdown on my Substack (link in bio). Documenting these stat-driven setups for the next 30 days. Setup 02, 05, and 06 coming as they trigger. If you want the backtest data or setup criteria, drop a comment.

Two edges played out. Setup 01 hit its targets. I traded the Zone B- fade. Both worked because both were built on probabilities from years of backtest data. This is what trading probabilities looks like. You execute when structure aligns with historical odds.