Highly recommend listening to Stan Druckenmiller's latest interview with Morgan Stanley.
Some of my favourite thoughts:
- Contrarianism is overrated. The crowd is right 80% of the time - just don't get caught in the other 20%
- Your edge isn't being right, it's sizing when you're right and cutting when you're wrong. Soros playbook.
- You don't need to understand everything. He couldn't spell Nvidia. He trusted people smarter than him on the details, then made the call
- Volatility isn't the enemy. It's your entry point if you have conviction
- TA and price/news signals worked until everyone learned them. Edge dies when it becomes consensus
- Courage (Balls) matters more than wisdom. He's smarter now than in his 30s and was a better PM then. He had more nerve
- Scars don't go away - and they shouldn't. But mistakes are a moment in time. Get over it and move on
- Growth investors didn't want Teva, value investors didn't want it either. That's exactly where the opportunity was - stocks stuck in no man's land between investor bases
- Where the smartest young people are going is a leading indicator. He tracked Stanford kids shifting from crypto to AI before the trade was obvious
- Knowing when something is big doesn't mean you'll hold it perfectly. He sold Nvidia at 800, it went to 1400. Even with the right thesis you'll still screw up the execution
- Pattern recognition compounds over decades. There's no silver bullet, just 40 years of seeing things before
One of the best lessons I've learned (from the 10/10 fiasco) is to stop trying to catch bottoms.
Instead, buy the ranges when sentiment is terrible and nobody wants to hold. Gives me room to be wrong. Room to average in. And space to exit if invalidated.
Your edge is found in positioning before the move cuz the margin of error is much smaller when you chase.
If you’re still obsessed with your ATH balance, it’ll be very difficult to hit another one.
It becomes a mental block. Under risk when conditions are good. Don’t want to take part in new metas.
The opportunities in this market are endless. You just have to be open minded and present to take advantage of them.
I've been in this market for a long time.
It's really easy to get sucked into the doom and gloom of low prices mixed with terrible price action.
But people always forget how quickly conditions improve.
You'll blink and it'll be a week of green, then two, then it sets in that the bottom may be in and we're back to targeting fresh all time highs.
Do what you can to stay positive.
Treat all the money you're losing in these conditions today as 10X what it is right now.
Cuz good times will return but if you have no chips at the table
It won't meant shit to you.
Capital preservation > everything.
I am going to announce something big.
Those who have been supporting me,
You haven’t gone unnoticed.
This is going to be an opportunity,
For those who really want to prosper.
Drop a comment if you’re interested.
Notis on,
More info soon.
The cool thing about losing a lot of money is that it makes you do some self reflection and focus on other areas of your life you’ve been neglecting to chase that number.
2 paths.
One is a dark path where you obsess over that number and let it eat you alive forever. Always thinking about what if.
Or
You work on yourself, do things you enjoy, get back in the game when you’re ready and go at it again with all the new lessons you’ve acquired.
Growth happens when you struggle.
After 8 years in crypto, I understand that I'm not a fast learner or a "sharp."
I’ve met a lot of incredibly smart traders and usually feel imposter syndrome when talking to them. On paper, I’m as average as it gets. I’ve been wrong more times than I can count, saved from disaster by pure luck and overly bullish to a fault.
But if there’s one industry that’s both brutally unforgiving and strangely generous, it’s crypto.
By simply showing up every day, I’ve managed to achieve more than my wildest dreams.
Luck definitely plays a role but after eight years of being “consistently lucky” there must be something I’m doing right. What I’m trying to say is yes, the game is tilted toward the sharks and top performers.
But there’s still room to make something of yourself for anyone willing to show up everyday, identify the holes in their game and learn from their mistakes.
The doomer will tell you that it's over and the easy money is gone.
But there are opportunities everywhere, it's up to you to find your edge.
Been doing some reflecting on my best and worst trades:
Best trades: During momentum shifts, I can press the button without hesitation on big red candles. Or size into coins before all of the information is out. Moments of chaos where most people freeze are where I thrive. Probably due to my risk tolerance, I'm no stranger to full porting my entire onchain stack.
Worst trades come down to:
1. Closing trades: The problem usually starts after I execute. Logical side of my brain tells me to take profits, but I hold for longer. Then after exiting I almost always re-enter on a dip even after telling myself I won't. This ends up leading to chop and worse entries.
I think it comes from being overly bullish. The same conviction that helps me buy early and hold through volatility also keeps me hyperfixated on the coin. I follow every update and find myself falling into the psyop. ASTER was a clear example of this, I was too emotionally attached to the trade.
2. Overtrading: My worst trades always follow big wins. I get overconfident and start forcing trades. I still don't have a good way to mentally reset. Especially recently cuz I got a 2nd kid. My usual hobby is to train Muay Thai which is basically the only time I can ever "forget" about the markets. Otherwise it's just constantly on my mind.
I went max long on this dip and I'm up pretty big but now it's all about execution.
Feel like it's one of those moments where I probably stay bullish too long instead of selling.
*note to self, take profit after hitting send on this tweet*