John Baker

OIL - Everyone now knows the Strait of Hormuz, but there's also Bab el-Mandeb. It links the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. Saudi Arabia's entire Red Sea export route runs through it. Houthi escalation now sharply raises risks. Saudi is ramping up Yanbu exports to ~4–5 million bpd on the Red Sea — and that's now in range of Houthi missiles and drones. The Houthi’s don't even need to close it though. Just maintaining the threat worked in 2023 as Red Sea traffic collapsed, insurance spiked, vessels disappeared. Avoiding Bab el-Mandeb would mean rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and adding major extra transport costs and transit times. Much higher oil prices are coming if this isn't resolved fast

Afentra plc is pleased to provide an update on the planned Block 3/05 drilling programme, offshore Angola. Read the full RNS: polaris.brighterir.com/public/afentra… A short supporting presentation providing further detail has been uploaded to the Afentra website: …entra-2025.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2026/03/… #AET

Excellent news this morning from #AET

Iran ‘present’ touted by Trump was passage of several fuel tankers through Hormuz US sought signal from Iran to see if worth pursuing diplomatic off-ramp; Trump has refrained from publicizing nature of gesture due to its limited impact, officials tell ToI timesofisrael.com/iran-present-t…

@WShak1 Agreed… Oil Mkt not pricing in an end to this war as of yet

I think this brief rally will get sold down as Trump's bullshit about a ceasefire loses traction. Oil will go up. (I am not selling anything)

12:10 - ***BREAKING*** - *IRAN'S MIZAN: TRUMP'S COMMENTS ARE ATTEMPT TO CUT ENERGY PRICES

Maurel & Prom #MAU just had a failed acquisition in Angola, because of pre-emption They bid a price (EV/2p and EV/production) that's substantially higher than Afentra's #AET metrics I suspect they are interested Giving opportunity to both

QatarEnergy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage. reuters.com/business/energ…

#aet #afentra This is major !!!!! Recent transactions suggest 30k$ per flowing barrel and 8-10$ per barrel of reserves Considering the upcoming growth in production what could be a fair sale price ? Production 15k bopd 2029 20k in 2030 2P reserves 36m barrels 2C 80m barrels

IRAN TARGETS GULF ENERGY FACILITIES, SAYS TASMIN Iran’s Tasnim news agency lists Gulf energy sites as “legitimate targets,” warning they could be struck soon. Facilities named: Qatar: Ras Laffan refinery phases 1 & 2, Mesaieed Petrochemical Saudi Arabia: Samref refinery, Jubail petrochemical complex UAE: Al Hosn gas field

First time Iran's upstream O&G facilities have been attacked Accounts for around 70% of Iran's natural gas production *IRAN TAKES SEVERAL PHASES OF SOUTH PARS GAS FIELD OFFLINE: FARS *EUROPEAN GAS RISES ON REPORT PARTS OF IRAN'S SOUTH PARS OFFLINE

@agricontract Sell it, Margins on cereals are wafer thin … Take the profit with no risk

Should it stay or should it go Sad times when input costs are so volatile you can make more money not growing anything 🤦‍♂️

update #OMI sitting right on major confluence support. • 200 EMA . 0.50 Fib retrace (~21.2) • Clear 3-push downside exhaustion Selling momentum fading and buyers starting to step in. If this level holds, first move is 25.9 (0.382 Fib) — then the gap in the low 30s becomes the magnet. 🧲📈

Will be surprised if we don’t see the shares moving on up now

@wheat_daddy Oil was $114/bbl (ish) at the high today .. Currently $88 … wild swings in the commodity mkts!

How on earth does anyone make sense of the grain market? 🤦‍♂️ 11.10 am today Nov ‘26 was up £6 from the start of the day, 7.00pm down 0.10p. 😳🤯

@baroninvestment Kistos looking at Acquisition’s in Africa perhaps? If so West Africa / Angola one would assume.

KIST, KISTOS trades on an ev/ebitda nearer to 1x right now. One of the cheapest in the sector. BBG Consensus is 1.49x which is one of the lowest out there, at $90 Brent that multiple drops hard.

Budget last month was for oil at 65$ with puts at 60$ Now even with oil in contango you can get floors at 75$ That means an extra 10-20m$, which reduces the shortfall in half So #aet will need to find 20m$ instead of 40m$ See the potential? #yolo

IRGC ADVISER SAYS IRAN WILL NOT ALLOW OIL TO LEAVE THE REGION – IRAN STATE TV

IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS COMMANDER SAYS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED AND IRAN WILL TARGET ANY SHIP TRYING TO PASS THROUGH IT — IRANIAN MEDIA REPORTS.

MAERSK: IT IS SUSPENDING ALL STRAIT OF HORMUZ TRANSITS