Trading with Cody

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Even if the Republican Democrat Regime or another other government ever goes all in a Stablecoins/Central Bank Digital Currency, that won't help them deal with the debt. The only way our country and the world at large is ever going to "deal with debt" is 1) for the economic growth from AI, Robotics and Space to be so HIGH and AMAZING that we grow out of the debt and/or the debt just doesn't grow as quickly as the wealth/economy does; or 2) Currency crash/reset/bankruptcy. That said, stablecoins are coming because they help a government theoretically borrow more easily as the purveyors of the stable coins buy government debt and Circle Internet Group (CRCL) is my favorite way to play that future. #Stablecoins $CRCL #AI #Crypto #EconomicGrowth @codywillard

Q. Any update on when or if you’d short or buy puts in other space stocks or ETFs, outside of SpaceX/SATS? Around SpaceX’s s-1, road show, IPO, Nasdaq Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) announcement, QQQ inclusion? Any update on whether you have specific stocks or ETFs in mind? A. I'm probably not going to short or buy much puts on space stocks in my personal account and most of you shouldn't do so either. In the hedge fund, I'd probably look to build up some puts and/or shorts on the UFO ETF. I do think most space stocks not named SpaceX are waaaaay overvalued right now and waaaay hyped up right now, so you could almost throw a dart at a list of space stocks to pick which ones to bet against because most of them are not worth anywhere near what their current market caps are and many of them will actually go bust over the next three to seven years. Q. How’s the plan coming to start selling out of our SATS positions? Will we be out of our SATS by the IPO or keep some for after? Also ideas on how to scale into SpaceX? I believe it’s going to explode at the get go and possibly never come down lol. A. I keep telling you guys that we will have to see how SATS and SPCX are trading if/when the IPO finally hits. Other than telling you that I definitely would like to own SPCX directly and not have the additional risk of owning SATS as a proxy for SPCX but I can't really even have a plan for that until we get there. $SATS $QQQ #SpaceX #SpaceRevolution #RovolutionInvesting @codywillard

Q. What is your opinion on the real world cost of AI as far as “profitability” for some of the AI companies… Any level of concern that they won’t be able to charge/price in their actual costs without slashing end user usage/demand? A. These companies are probably currently seeing 30%+ ROI from these investments. Certainly these AI models will evolve over time. #AI #AgenticEconomy #Investing

Q. Can you help us understand why CPUs (AMD, INTC) are making a comeback against GPU? A. More CPUs are required to help agentic AI so the ratio of CPU chips to GPU chips in an AI datacenter is increasing, but GPU chips are still waaaaay bigger market in the AI data center. AMD and INTC make old fashioned x86 CPU chips which are not nearly as energy and economically efficient to run as ARM-based CPUs are. The CPU market is going to grow like wildfire for the next two to five years and ARM-based CPUs are going to take market share from x86 chips forever. $AMD $INTC #GPU #CPU #AI #AgenticEconomy

Q. Cody, is it worth it to dabble in $rklb or train has left the station? Saw some news on tie up between Google and RKLB. A. Rocket Lab is a great company. That said, has anybody around here done any modeling on RKLB lately? It was a stretch to get my valuation models to make sense when the stock was at $10 or $20. At these prices, Rocket Lab will need to grow topline 50%+ for 10 years in a row while doubling their gross margins to make this stock look attractive here. We have to remain displined! Remember that our goal is to build wealth as safely as possible for the next few decades. Discipline is a major differentiator for the great investors. $GOOGL $GOOG #SpaceRevolution #Investing @codywillard

Q. Feet to fire thoughts… What “inning” in this bull market do you think we’re currently in? A. The current rally over the last eight weeks or so is probably in its 7th or 8th inning. The market needs a bit of a rest, at least. The AI Revolution is probably in the bottom of the first inning. On the other hand, The Robotics Revolution is probably at the top of the first inning with a full count on the first batter. The Space Revolution is in warm ups. So, I'd be a bit conservative about the near-term and I'd try to avoid being greedy here, but I'd also stick with the Revolution Investing approach that's built all this wealth for us over the last nearly 30 years now. #AI #RevolutionInvesting #Investing @codywillard

Q. For META, does the "difficulty" or possible block of the acquisition of Manus change anything for you? I know y'all had a good write up on the wonder of manus and how effective it could/will be. A. Well, META has already integrated Manus technology into Instagram and the rest of META tech so.... I don't think there's any putting that tooth paste back in the tube, China's whining about it notwithstanding. $META #Manus #AI @codywillard

Go for The AI Revolution CALL!!!

Most companies selling software applications are in big trouble as AI becomes ever more capable. Cybersecurity will continue to grow in importance and most cybersecurity companies are doomed by the ever-improving AI trend (I think Zscaler (ZS) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) are probably well-positioned, but most other cybersecurity companies are not). Not sure I understand why you're questioning how these new AI models are going to impact financial companies in the same way it will impact software and cybersecurity companies. #AI $ZS $CRWD #software #Investing @codywillard

Q. The latest AI releases from Anthropic Mythos and Open AI Cyber seem to be a gigantic leap forward. Can we have your takes on them? A. The new models are better than the old models. The next generation of models will be even better than the new models currently are. The advancements and innovation will continue to accelerate. Anthropic created extra hype around the Mythos stuff as a scare tactic for marketing to enterprises. AI in five years will make today's AI look like AOL dial up, as I've been saying forever now. #AI #Anthropic #OpenAI #Investing @codywillard

Q. Are you waiting for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's (TSM) earnings tomorrow to see if the AI theme keeps going strong or takes a break? A. I look forward to seeing TSM earnings tomorrow, but they've already been telling us monthly revenue numbers that have been amazing. The AI theme isn't taking a break and TSM will confirm that tomorrow for those who doubt it...well, let me rephrase that: "TSM will rebut that tomorrow for those who doubt it but that won't change any of their minds because I don't know how you can look at reality and the fundamentals of AI and doubt it." #StockInvesting $TSM #AI @codywillard

Go For The AI Call!!!

I’d say, F2F: Near-term, robotaxi roll out is still going too slowly to matter to the fundamentals but if/when they turn it on for real, it could scale insanely quickly. Optimus is the other kicker coming too, obviously. Near-term, the stock could remain rangebound at best until there’s a breakthrough on robotaxi and/or until the next major Optimus reveal. Long-term, nothing’s changed. $TSLA #Optimus #robotaxi @codywillard

Morgan Stanley downgraded ARM Holdings (ARM) Tuesday in large part because they think high memory costs are going to hurt margins and maybe make the new CPU chips rollout slightly slower than otherwise. I continue to expect that customers of and competitors in the memory industry will fight over themselves to create more supply and/or to cut memory needs. Here’s an example from memory customers figuring out how to use ever less memory to make their ai magic work, as Meta (META) explained in their new model release a few moments ago: “Over the last nine months, we rebuilt our pretraining stack with improvements to model architecture, optimization, and data curation. Together, these advancements increase the capability we can extract from every unit of compute. To rigorously evaluate our new recipe, we fit a scaling law to a series of small models and compare the training FLOPs required to hit a specific level of performance. The results are clear: we can reach the same capabilities with over an order of magnitude less compute than our previous model, Llama 4 Maverick. This improvement also makes Muse Spark significantly more efficient than the leading base models available for comparison.” #AI #Semiconductors $ARM $Meta #ChipStocks #TechStocks #AIInfrastructure @codywillard

Q. What are you fearful of right now? A. Escalating war(s). Quagmire potential in Iran and Venezuela (yea, I’m still worried that the Venezuela stuff isn’t over yet). Fraud in small caps and maybe at a few large caps. Inflationary pressures from higher oil prices even as today that looks like it’s over, because it might not be. That said, I’ve been and remain very bullish on the economy and on our individual stocks. #Investing #IranWar #Venezuela #Oil @codywillard

We are live!!!! @codywillard

We are live!!!

I have found myself loving to build and learn from Manus from Meta (META), but I also use Gemini (and Google Gemini AI Studio) a lot and find it great too. The team use Claude quite a bit too I think. Anyway, some of these discussions about which LLM/Agentic AI is best reminds me of debating the merits of Alta Vista vs. Excite vs. Google. Likewise there will be some huge winners and some of the current batch of highly valued companies will fail someday too. $META $GOOGL #AI #LLM #AgenticAI #Gemini #ClaudeAI #TechTrends #FutureOfAI #Innovation #RevolutionaryInvesting @codywillard

CRCL's been on a crazy run in just a few short weeks. It was probably due for a pullback. The CLARITY Act news is not all that material IMO. Whether stablecoins can pay yield is more of an issue for COIN than CRCL. We have never viewed USDC as a store of value asset. It will be used mostly for transactions. $CRCL #Stablecoins #USDC #Crypto #COIN #Fintech #Investing #Pullback @codywillard