DENCHman

#NBA 24-25 Regular Season Recap: W/L: 426-283 HR: 60.8% Average Odds: 1.826 (-121) Profit: +67.71u ROI: 9.55%

@JG4President He did shoot 67% last year but yeah the drop off has been weird.

@Travis_Frase How did this dude go from a 82% FT shooter to 61% this season tho

This Ayton role buy-in has been generational

@AyyYoo12 It's good to see. I've always been a firm believer that Ayton is a very good player when he's engaged. It's just getting him engaged is the issue. Hopefully he stays locked in the rest of the season.

No idea how season will go but good start at least.

@JOHNNYBLAZE1871 Yeah fair enough. Tonight was good since Hayes and Kleber both OUT.

@Travis_Frase I cashed so much on him until he joined the lakers. I’m so afraid of touching him cause u never know what his minutes look like

Deandre Ayton is my goat

Back against shit teams and fade against good teams is probably 90% on season for this guy

@george_font He didn't but when he scored 81 he didn't shoot 43 free throws, stat pad up 30 in the Fourth quarter with intentional fouls to extend the game, and he shot 61% FG.

@Travis_Frase Nice--when did he score 83?

Bam having the 2nd highest scoring game of all time is diabolical and shows the absolute state of the NBA right now. 7-22 from three and 50 FTA. He scored 83 and shot 46% as a centre lol.

@george_font Wow a centre shoots better than a shooting guard. Who would of ever of thought that. Did you also know Deandre Jordan has a better career FG% than Michael Jordan? Unbelievable.

@Travis_Frase Bam's 46.5% FG% this game was higher than all but 4 of Kobe's 20 season-long FG percentages.

Yes I will find a way to hate on the second best scoring game of all time.

@tyvansb Being above +50u for this season like you are is pretty crazy. Most people (myself included) are much much much worse and would kill for those results. I wouldn't stress it.

NBA Season will really put you through hell and back man. So many amazing highs and rock bottom lows. Salute to the people who are unbothered by the variance, especially public figures who are transparent. Something I desperately need to improve at personally

@Farsh357 I think I am out of touch with it now tbh. Will see maybe later in the year though.

@Travis_Frase Trav r u doing nrl picks in ur patreon this year

2026 is somehow even worse. FML.

With less cherry picking.

In the 15% of outcomes 100% of the time.

Yeah this is the worst variance I have ever had. Even when I win it's bad variance. Had risacher o7.5 points and dude shoots 4-13 or some shit to barely cover. But yeah at what point is it just now longer bad variance anymore. One thing's for sure Id way rather be lucky than good.

I’m in the same boat as you, results well below what I’d want them to be. Every day I get 1-2 insane negative variance losses and barely ever get any positive variance wins. I keep saying to subs, our luck will turn eventually but we’re 75% of the way through the season and it keeps happening

Fading a capper who has a strong track record of past success but is in the transition phase of becoming washed and losing their edge is an opportunity for good profit. The cappers followers will still be tailing at this point because they won't be sure if it's bad variance or not. This will cause line to move and present great value for fading. I say this because fading me is potentially a generational opportunity although I am still not sure if I am washed or if it's variance.

@ActuaryDataPick I hope it is. I don't know how long to give it though. I am thinking rest of this season and then a few months into next season is probably fair.

@Travis_Frase My moneys on variance

+14u but was +29 mid Jan. Also due to line movement I doubt my followers are much better than break even this season :(. I do only charge $5 month but I have never had below +40u in a season before and I think +30u is the minimum you need to be at for soft markets like player props. Would take a miracle to get to +40u here.

@Travis_Frase You’ll be right. What’s your record now?