
The Fed started 2026 expecting to cut rates 3 times.
Rate probabilities now currently show a 78.5% chance of no rate cuts in 2026.
Why?
- March CPI spiked to 3.3% YoY
- JPMorgan's call stated they expect the next move to be a hike in Q3 2027
- April 8 FOMC minutes stated some members open to hikes if inflation stays sticky

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