SafeCapital.EU

Just 35 days ago, Russian & Iranian oil was sanctioned Iran was not in control of the Strait of Hormuz The Strait of Hormuz saw 120 large crude vessels passing each day US had fully operational airbases across the Gulf F-35 was marketed as an untouchable stealth platform Crude oil at $60 per barrel Inflation was declining Global trade routes were stable US missile stockpiles were intact and undisrupted No large-scale drawdown of strategic reserves underway As of Today, Russia is generating $620 million per day in energy revenues Iran is generating $185 million per day despite war conditions in Chinese Yen The Strait of Hormuz is effectively choked, with 250–260 vessels stranded carrying 400–450 million barrels US airbases across the Middle East have been repeatedly targeted, with key radar and defense systems degraded The F-35’s stealth narrative has taken a direct hit after battlefield damage from Iranian air defense Crude oil has surged to $105–110 per barrel, with an imminent supply shock building Over $100 billion burned by the US in offensive and defensive operations in just over a month 2,400 Patriot and 700+ THAAD interceptors fired, heavily depleting regional stockpiles 1,100 Tomahawk missiles used, a significant share of total inventory Global inflation is reversing course and set to accelerate sharply, already seen in Asian Economies The world is heading toward a synchronized economic slowdown What Will Happen Next (Already in Motion):- The last pre-war crude shipments are about to land within days A real-time supply shock follows immediately after 8–10 million barrels per day effectively disrupted from global flows 14 smaller Asian economies face complete shutdown within a week at $110+ oil Strategic reserves are being drained rapidly, buying time, not solving the problem Middle Eastern economies are entering a historic economic slowdown, with losses exceeding $200+ billion Trade flows, logistics, and industrial output are beginning to fracture End State Trajectory:- Supply shock → Demand destruction → Trade contraction Trade contraction → Lower dollar velocity → Liquidity tightening Liquidity tightening → US economy sliding toward recession As a result of these “unimaginable wins,” inflation is not contained, it is coming back with force, and this time through energy, supply chains, and global trade disruption all at once.

The last VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) that left just before the Iran war is expected to arrive on April 11. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened today, the next tanker would not arrive before May 11, 2026. Oil prices will not stabilize anytime soon.

Paper Brent is at $109. Physical Brent is at $141. Physical is the price if you need oil now. Paper is the price if delivery can wait until June. However you look at the Middle East, this will not be fixed in a few weeks. Oil is going far higher than consensus thinks.

Notice how quickly all that bullshit about liberating Iranians disappeared, and now it's all about bombing them back to the Stone Age, destroying their bridges and universities, poisoning their air and water, and stealing their oil.

♰🇪🇸 Military honor guard in honor of Jesus Christ, organized by the Spanish Legion in Malaga

Holding Hands Persepolis (Iran), c. 500 BC