@shome_rajarshi Hi raj , how do you see MTAR , high growth , great sector TAM and moated company but valuation also highly rich
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Tribhav Chaudhary
1.1K posts
Tribhav Chaudhary
@TribhavC
Btech - NIT ALLAHABAD (MNNIT) , stream - information technology , software engineer , trader , investor .
Katılım Haziran 2023
114 Takip Edilen204 Takipçiler
I will thank Donald Trump in 2029 for giving me great entry points in high growth stocks in 2026.
All the great deals of today vanish with one piece of news flow:
THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS OPEN!
I don’t know when that day shall come.
All I know is that I have to be fully deployed and take all the pain till that fateful day.
The next bull market is going to be massive.
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@ParveenBhansali At these valuations , there is no scope of rerating , max it can sustain or derate , and the way they behaved in q2,q3 and q4 based on asset turnover of this new facility high chances it will take time for them to stabilise this huge capacity , wishing them good luck .
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#KRNHEAT Exchangers
Successful ramp up of the new facility to 50% utilization in FY27 is the single biggest rerating trigger.
The company is moving from capacity creation to monetization with management guiding 50% utilization in FY27 and 80% in FY28. Key growth drivers supporting this ramp are strong data center demand (16-18% of revenue already), Bus AC scaling toward ₹150 crore and exports expected to nearly double.
This ramp up can also drive meaningful margin expansion. Current profitability is weighed down by higher depreciation, new plant overheads and initial inefficiencies, but as utilization improves, operating leverage can significantly lift EBITDA margins.
Additional tailwinds like 5% PLI incentive, 1.56% RIPS benefit for 10 years and solar power savings can further boost profitability. If execution remains strong, this can lead to a sharp earnings upgrade and a meaningful stock rerating.
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@ShridhantS But in india , most of the PCB's are imported , to whom they will be selling this CCL , are they going to export it ? most of the EMS does not have much plans to enter into making bare PCB's for which this is used .
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Ratnaveer precision engineering was selecting for the Swing trading
This #Q4FY26 very interesting changes in company fundamentals .
Company entered in New segment;- CCL lamination commissioning Nov 2026(copper clad lamination).
CCL lamination are foundation base material used for buliding printing circuit board
Used in EV, 5G infracture, consumer electronics & Defence aerospace
Projected Growth: The domestic and regional market is slated for steady expansion, clocking roughly 6% CAGR.
Mangement Target 🎯
80%-Capacity utilization
30% CAGR growth
#Ratnaveer
microcap investors@ShridhantS
3️⃣ Ratanveer precision engineering limited🔖 Ratnaveer Precision Engineering Ltd manufactures and sells a diverse range of SS products Volume spurt seen on the chart #Ratanveer
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@vishan_29 There products cannot capture the 10% TAM in aerospace and defence , they make compressor airfoils and turbine blades , which is approax 25% of engine cost , and their product will not be put in all engines or gas turbine , its a very good company but TAM you're looking is wrong
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Azad operates in high-entry barrier industries with combined CY29 TAM of ₹3.4L Cr+ 🔥
👉 Current Order Book - 6,500 Cr (11x FY26 Revenues) 👌👌
👉 Even if Azad captures 10% of TAM - we are looking at 34K Cr worth of new orders 👌
✔️ Key Details
• Aerospace & Defence TAM: ₹2.19L Cr by CY29 (~11% CAGR from ₹1.19 lakh Cr in 2023)
>> Supplier to 6 key aerospace OEMs
>> Growth driven by adjacencies, next-gen engines and rising defence spending
>> Exposure across Airbus, Boeing and Gulfstream platforms
• Energy Turbine TAM: ₹31,000 Cr by 2029
>> Supplies to OEMs controlling ~75% of global gas turbine market
>> Driven by industrial turbine demand, replacement market and conventional energy support
• Oil & Gas market TAM stands at ₹93,000 Cr by CY29
Disclaimer: No recommendation. For educational purposes only.
Vishan@vishan_29
AZAD Engineering - Supplier of highly engineered, mission and life-critical components 🔥 🔶️ Scale & Positioning • 15+ years of operations • Sales across 12 countries • 45+ qualified manufacturing processes • ~93% export revenue in FY26 • 96%+ revenue from private players • Delivered 3.82 million units till FY26, including components with zero parts-per-million defect requirements 🔶️ Industry Presence • Supplier to six key manufacturers in Aerospace & Defence • Supplier to five key manufacturers in turbine manufacturing industry • Customers control ~75% of global gas turbine market • Operates in industries with vendor qualification cycles of 30-48 months, creating high entry barriers 👌👌 🔶️ FY26 Business Mix • Energy & Oil & Gas contributed 81.5% of revenue • Aerospace & Defence contributed 17.2% 🔶️ Management Guidance & Strategic Outlook • Reiterated 25%+ revenue growth guidance for FY27 and over the long term 🚀 • Management expects EBITDA margins to sustain at 33-35%+ supported by continuous operational and flow improvements • Over the next 4-5 years, Energy segment contribution expected at 55-60% of revenues 🔶️ Major Facility Expansion • AZAD inaugurated four dedicated facilities at Tunikibollaram Industrial Park, Hyderabad: >> Mitsubishi Heavy Industries – 7,200 sq.m >> GE Vernova – 7,600 sq.m >> Siemens Energy – 7,200 sq.m >> Baker Hughes – 7,600 sq.m • Manufacturing footprint: >> ~20,000 sq.m operational >> ~94,899 sq.m under construction >> Additional Phase-2 expansion of 67,267 sq.m planned 🔶️ Key Orders & Strategic Agreements • GE Vernova agreement worth USD 112 Mn for advanced gas turbine components • Additional GE Vernova agreement worth USD 53.5 Mn for nuclear, industrial and thermal power industries • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries LTCPA valued at USD 83 Mn for 5 years • Siemens Energy agreement valued at USD 90 Mn • Arabelle Solutions agreement valued at USD 40 Mn • Honeywell Aerospace Phase-1 award valued at USD 16 Mn • Strategic supply agreement extension with Baker Hughes till CY2030 🔶️ Order Book & Revenue Visibility • Total Order Book: Stands at a rolling ~₹6,500 crores, providing 11-12x forward revenue visibility 👌 • Execution Timeline: The ₹6,500 crore order book is slated to be consumed over the next 5 to 6 years 🔶️ Growth Drivers & Strategy • Increasing wallet share from existing OEMs 👌 • Expanding into higher-value products including advanced gas, steam and nuclear turbines • Focus on automation, lean manufacturing and operating efficiencies • Strategic expansion into Saudi Arabia • Building end-to-end manufacturing and integration capabilities • Expansion into landing gears and advanced turbine components 👉 Follow @vishan_29 for more updates. 🔴 Disclaimer: No recommendation. For educational purposes only.
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@AmannaPrerana Thanks , What i feel is they have comsumed semi furnished products to reach the final product instead of raw material consumption , this needs to be tracked now in future quarters .
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1. RM is sourced 3-6 months prior.
2. Contracts gets revised every quarter and 100% of the cost is passed on to the customer.
3. War has affected the availability of containers which caused delay of exports.
That’s why you will also see there is huge increase in inventory ( check consol cash flows)
4. I don’t have answers why stock in trade increased QOQ.
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Q4FY26 : Episode 19
KRN Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration Ltd: What is the Outlook for FY27?
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@TribhavC not sure for ideaForge. management has not specified so how can i know. but for industry, procurement cycle seems to be there, at least for now. and because of their lack of combat drones, its more likely a momentum play for now.
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Data Patterns said that their cash conversion cycle has meaningfully improved from 428 days in FY25 to 365 days in FY26.
Yes, defence companies have that bloated cycle. One of the anti-thesis always.
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@vishan_29 Good analysis , have you looked at why the raw material consumed on highest ever sale is so less though copper and aluminium prices are at historical highs and they didn't have much leftover inventory , also their stock-in trade jumped nearly 4X from previous quarter
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KRN Estimates - Base Case
FY27
Revenues
>> Old Plant - 450 Cr
>> New plant at 50% utilization - 900 Cr (Assuming lower end of 1800-2400 Cr potential)
>> Total - 1350 Cr
PAT - 169 Cr (assuming 12.5% margin)
👉 FY27 PE - 43
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FY28
Revenues - 450 + 80% of 1800 Cr - 1890 Cr
PAT - 236 Cr
👉 FY28 PE - 30
* Note
1. This is assuming the least revenues and margins.
2. Margins will expand due to PLI, RIPS benefit and backward integration kicking in.
Please highlight / add any point which I may have missed. 🙌
🔴 Disclaimer: No recommendation. For educational purposes only.
Vishan@vishan_29
KRN Heat Exchanger Q4FY26 Concall Updates - Bullish 🔥 🗣 "Next 8 quarters will be the strongest growth phase for the company" • New facility >> 6x capacity of existing with 1800-2400 Cr revenue potential >> Utilization in FY27 - 50% and 80% by FY28 • Expanding across Bus AC, DC, Railway, HVAC etc • Datacenter Cooling remains to be a strong area for the company • 95% revenue still from fin n tubes • Talks with Vertiv progressing for Datacenters, Schneider Electric already one of largest customers in DC • Bus AC >> FY27 Revenue- 150-160 Cr >> Market share - 15% • FY27 exports - 2x of FY26 or 200 Cr in North America, Europe etc. • Long term export contribution to be 50% of revenues • All raw material costs are passed onto customers • No competition with Chinese counterparts as KRN is highly customized and application specific 🔴 Disclaimer: No recommendation. For educational purposes only.
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@ishmohit1 Can you also compare what black rock uses for investments , ig no because they have direct CEO access on their phone , it will always be same in any domain .
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@TA_Purvesh Is it a deeper correction till 22k or can stop at 23150-23250 levels , kia lgta hein purvesh bhaiya .
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📊 FII/DII Cash Data - May 13, 2026
🌍 FIIs: ₹-4,703.2 cr 🔴
🇮🇳 DIIs: ₹5,869.1 cr 🟢
📊 Net: ₹1,165.9 cr 📈
Kal mereko net sell chahiye... 😀
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@sandipsabharwal In a 3k dollar per capita income country , our FM going and kicking out the much needed foreign capital by saying fii may come and go what can be expected , cult nature is good until it starts harming the country. With what mindeset modi ji and our FM are running the country.
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India's share of World Market Capitalisation down from 4.73% at peak to below 3% now
A nearly 40% drop and the highest for any large economy
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@shiladitya4u Yeah no margin of safety but thats how these themes are rided , similar thing happened in kaynes , when liquidity and TAM expands one should not look at valuations , one must ride them
technically ema-10 or ema-21 , since its a liquid name one can ride it technically .
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@TribhavC bhai, moat hai - agree
Orderbook strong hai - agree
So, any valuations is good?
Should it trade at 10000 or 20000?
Question is not moat or orderbook, question is valuations.
Anyways
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MTAR Tech
According to me,
For a stock trading at absolutely crazy valuations,
This is disastrous results from MTAR considering valuations and market expectations....
But, then market always surprises
So, who knows? It might hit upper circuit as well !!
🤣🤣🤣
The Cloaked Gaze 👀@gaze_observer
MTAR Technologies Ltd Q4FY26 Results:- #Q4Results #Q4FY26 #Stockmarket #Nifty #MTAR Total 306.07 Cr vs 183.09 Cr (+67.17% YoY┃+10.11% QoQ) EBITDA 61.81 Cr vs 34.15 Cr (+81.01% YoY ┃-3.46% QoQ) EBITDA Margin 20.19% vs 18.65% YoY & 23.03% QoQ PBT Ex-Exceptional Items 59.54 Cr vs 18.62 Cr (+219.77% YoY┃+19.36% QoQ) PAT 44.28 Cr vs 13.72 Cr (+222.72% YoY┃+27.66% QoQ) Other Income 16.40 Cr vs 0.03 Cr YoY & 2.41 Cr QoQ Last Q3 Exceptional loss of 3.76 Cr
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@shiladitya4u No , i think TAM is expanding and company has real moat not just imaginary one .
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@TribhavC question is - how much ??
Will it come down from moon to the earth?
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@equities_samjho They hold a monopoly as the primary supplier for traction motor cores to Wabtec and Alstom, Irrespective of which OEM wins the locomotive order, Pitti supplies.
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@TribhavC not sure for Vande Bharat but a lot of suppliers for traction motors for railways in general
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Margins are crashing for motor companies. One obvious reason is commodity inflation, which should get better in a few quarters. But soon, the industry might be staring at an overcapacity. Be very careful if you're invested here in this space.
The same will happen for transformer companies but we're not at that point yet, and even far in the high voltage segment.
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@sahilbhadviya One needs to understand that nvidia is still half cheaper then indigo , let that sink in .
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It’s not really a question of whether AI/data center stocks will eventually correct. That will surely happen at some point. The only real question is “when”.
Right now, the rally has become absolutely crazy. AI infrastructure, semiconductor and data center companies are commanding insane valuations globally. Entire markets like Taiwan and South Korea are moving almost like microcap rallies because of AI optimism and capital inflows.
But history shows that eventually everything reverts to mean. Narratives become excessive, expectations overshoot and valuations disconnect from reality. The same thing happened during previous tech and thematic cycles as well.
And when that reversal eventually comes, one interesting possibility is FIIs could start rotating back toward relatively under-owned and reasonably valued markets like India. In a way, that could become a “reverse AI trade” over the next few years.
Of course, timing such shifts is nearly impossible. But understanding cycles and capital flows is important because global liquidity keeps moving from one narrative to another.
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@connectgurmeet PAT expected for the current year :
Samsung : $250 bn
SK Hynix: $150 bn
TSMC : $ 100 bn
complete Indian listed companies expected profit: $200 bn
look at this data also
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Impact of continuous FII selling and AI Trade
India weight in MSCI EM reduced to 11.9% . It was 20% in 2024.. so a 40% fall
Taiwan weight more than 2X of India ~25%. TSMC alone is more than India :)
This is nearing exuberance!!
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