Triple Net Investor

Warren Buffett thoughtfully explains why investing in stocks/equities is better than real estate, during Berkshire's latest annual meeting: "In respect to real estate, it's so much harder than stocks in terms of negotiation of deals, time spent, the involvement of multiple parties in the ownership. Usually when real estate gets in trouble, you find out you're dealing with more than equity holder. But there have been times when large amounts of real estate... I've changed hands at bargain prices, but usually stocks were cheaper, but there were a lot easier to do. Charlie did more real estate. Charlie enjoyed real estate transactions, and he actually did a fair number of them in the last five years of his life. But he was playing a game that was an interesting game to him. But I think if you'd asked him to make a choice when he was 21, he'd either be in stocks exclusively the rest of his life or real estate the rest of his life. He would have chosen stocks in a second. There's just so much more opportunity, at least in the United States. There's so much more opportunity that presents itself in the security market than it does in real estate and in real estate. You're usually dealing with a single owner or a family that owns maybe a large property they've had a long time. Maybe they've borrowed too much money against them. Maybe the population trends are against them. But to them, it's an enormous... When you walk down to the New York Stock Exchange, you can do billions of dollars worth of business totally anonymous, and you can do it in five minutes. And the trades are complete when they're complete. In real estate, when you make a deal, a big deal with a distressed lender, when you sign the deal, then you go into another phase. Then people start negotiating more things and more things. It's a whole different game. And a different type of person, to some extent, enjoys the game. We did a few real estate deals that came our way in 2008 and 2009, but the amount of time that they would take us compared to doing something intelligent and probably better in securities, there was just no comparison. I mean, in a real estate deal, every sentence is important. In stocks, if somebody needs to sell 20,000 shares of Berkshire or something and they call us and the price is right, it's done in five seconds. And it closes all the time."

@JohnFitzgibbo13 True

@TripleNetInvest The other thing- take a 30yr fixed $500000 mtge- going from 6.5% to 5.5%, that is only about a $350/month lower payment- is that really getting the buyer off the fence

It's hilarious some people think mortgage rates coming down means a flood of owners will sell their homes Here's the reality: In most markets, NO ONE is willing to sell and get rid of their sub 3% mortgage People can dream though

@tomami20x All valid points

@TripleNetInvest The bigger issue is that anyone who owns their home outright, is unwilling to incur up to 6-10% transaction costs, with the likelihood that they need to purchase another inflated house in a different location. Capital Gains taxes alone could easily be 23% on top of RE fees.

@ChestRockwellUS There needs to be more sellers but they just aren’t there in most markets

@TripleNetInvest Oh, I agree. You are right, nobody is jumping out of a 3% mortgage into a 6% mortgage. The market it is at a standstill. But around me houses are still grossly overpriced regardless of rate.

@MrBillyBob2 True but it’s become increasingly challenging to build and construction costs are high. Also prices aren’t going up double digits every year so the incentive to build isn’t really as high as we’ve seen in recent years

@TripleNetInvest And the supply of new homes is limited, will take some time for builders to catch up. There must be data on new home build demand vs interest rates vs building lag.

@ChestRockwellUS People need to sell and they won’t unless they’re forced to. Maybe a massive wave a layoffs will change that.

@TripleNetInvest Houses still too overpriced for the recent mortgage rate to move the needle anyway. We need to see both prices and rates come down further for the housing market to no longer be completely ridiculous.

@Kalshi 100% odds I will still need my plumber after 2026 My plumber does more ‘meaningful work’ than some laid off tech bro

JUST IN: Youtube co-founder says 2026 will be the "last year" humans do meaningful work

@parella_anthony Nope. Other CEOs / entrepreneurs said something similar. Bill Gates, Dario Amodei (Anthropic), Mustafa Suleyman (CEO of Microsoft AI), Zuck, Jamie Dimon, Jensen Huang etc.

@TripleNetInvest He is delusional.

@housleyd It's going to be a bloodbath across the board

@TripleNetInvest 50% can disappear tomorrow AI or not

@abhisheknaironx Group 3: -YOLOing life savings into fart coin and melania coin

Two types of people right now: Group 1: - “AI will take my job” - “Market is dead, nothing works” - “Everything is saturated” - “Only insiders make money” - “It’s too late to start now” - “I missed the opportunity” Group 2: - learning tools nobody taught them - building things nobody asked for - posting when nobody is watching - stacking skills while others panic - becoming dangerous while others complain - quietly positioning for the next 10 years AI won’t decide your future. Your group will. Which group are you in?

@reinventideal I'd imagine there are going to be A LOT of similar layoff announcements from most industries within the next 6-12 months... it's just getting started IMO

@TripleNetInvest You clearly don’t know what you’re talking about. This company was in desperate peril

The white collar apocalypse we’ve been fearing is here… Tech employees are completely screwed How screwed? On a scale of 1-10 probably a 12 The only people more screwed are students that’ve been preparing their whole lives to become software engineers What comes next?

@jpl054978215284 Definitely was a wake up call for a lot of people

@TripleNetInvest I thought this was an interesting take on what could come next: citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

@michael_neely What would you build right now?

@TripleNetInvest Maybe they should build something of their own...?

@PolyluminaMed Hopefully this is will be true

@TripleNetInvest Lot of talented people out there... they will find their way.. do startups, retain into hard asset businesses.. get into manufacturing... capitalism = disruption... and that is good.

BREAKING: Block stock, $XYZ, surges over +20% after announcing plans to cut over 40% of their workforce.

@billsmith181172 the reality is that the middle class in the US is broadly feeling the pain x.com/TripleNetInves…

@TripleNetInvest middle class booming in tx. i see none of this in tx.

Signs it's very late cycle: -Middle class tapped out -Dining out = luxury -Layoff accelerating, hiring frozen -Mega IPOs lined up (ie. SpaceX) -Defensives ripping (gold/silver/Korea) -Risky assets unwinding -Home prices cracking -Card delinquencies elevated What am I missing?

@NielL92840577 Some markets like sunbelt and Austin are already correcting. US broadly should be fine. IMO there won’t be a repeat of the 08/09 like some ppl on X are predicting

@TripleNetInvest Do you think this will lead to a material correction in home prices?

@WyattHarper1 True but a lot of the crypto bros have vanished

@TripleNetInvest Everyone and their moms having “stock tips” that “can’t lose”

@EvanMouhalis There was a lot of excess in the system over the last several years that still needs to unwind. The bigger unresolved variable is AI - if displacement accelerates faster than labor markets and policy can adjust, its game over

@TripleNetInvest Do you think this cycle unwinding will result in pockets of weakness (already seeing this play out today) or systemic issues/recession?