Trob's Fight Picks

Joshua Van (+130) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-155) So this fight was originally supposed to happen at UFC 327... it got moved due to a Joshua Van injury, but honestly my first thought was that it might’ve just been a business decision by the UFC to move it to 328 for whatever reason. Either way, I’m not really putting much stock into the “injury” angle. As far as the fight itself... It might not feel right to everyone that Joshua Van is the defending champion given how he won the belt, but at the end of the day, it was an injury that was inflicted as result of a caught kick from Van. Flukey? Sure. But that’s part of the game. And honestly, it is unfortunate, but at the same time it’s pretty awesome and refreshing that we’re getting a title fight between two elite young prospects at 24 and 26. Josh Van is a monster. Fantastic boxer, insane volume, not a huge one-shot power guy but it doesn’t matter because his pace and pressure breaks guys down. The defense can be a little shaky, he absorbs around 7 1/2 significant strikes per minute, but he’s also dishing out over 9, so he’s making up for it. Now before he even got to the UFC, one of my notes on Van was that his takedown defense didn’t look quite ready and that wrestlers could give him problems (to be fair, he had just started wrestling months before his debut). But that really hasn’t been the case so far. His takedown defense has looked really good. He has nice sprawl in open space, strong whizzer, great scrambling ability, he doesn’t get frustrated when guys take him down. That said... he hasn’t fought anyone like Tatsuro Taira. The closest comparison would have to be Rei Tsuruya (no not just because he’s also Japanese)... but Taira is just on a different level. Taira is a muuuch better striker than Tsaruya so he does a better job setting up his takedowns but he’s also just a better MMA grappler by far. Tsuruya is a great wrestler, but if you go back and watch that fight, he hardly ever (if he even did at all) used his legs, he just shot and either got sprawled on or he built up and then just settled in the clinch. He didn’t hook with his legs, he didn’t split Van’s legs, didn’t go for trips… You can bet every dollar you have that Taira is going to use everything he’s got to take Van down and get to his back. And that’s a big thing here... Taira’s back-taking ability. That’s one of the most valuable skills in MMA in my opinion. It’s like fight-altering power, you don’t need to dominate every second, you just need one moment. He doesn’t even need a clean takedown. He can lose the initial entry and still end up on your back, and once he’s there, it’s a huge problem… But I can’t help but think back to Royval vs Taira. What won Royval that fight? Pace, volume, pressure, and the ability to survive bad positions. And those are all things Joshua Van has. Now I don’t know if his BJJ is on Royval’s level, but I actually think Van will do a better job of staying out of bad positions to begin with. Royval is a great grappler, but it was in my notes before that fight.. “he gives up his back a lot and ends up on his back way too easily” which did show at times against Taira but he still came out with a win. Van has now had two full camps preparing for guys trying to take him down and choke him out, and now he’s facing the lesser of those two threats compared to Pantoja (no disrespect to Taira, but that’s just reality). I think he’ll still get put in some bad spots, but I trust his scrambling, and I think he’ll be as prepared as possible to defend submissions. And if this fight hits the later rounds... I really like Van. I’d probably pick Taira in a 3-round fight, but over 5 rounds, I think Van’s pace and cardio really start to take over. If this gets into R4 and R5, you definitely want to be holding a Van ticket. And Still.. (Van’s awesome but I really would like to see Taira win this one.. How can you not love that guy?!) Prediction - Van via Decision Projected Win % - 51% #UFC #MMA #UFC328 #Picks #Prediction #Preview #Breakdown #Gambling #Bet #Prop #SeanStrickland #KhamzatChimaev #TatsuroTaira #JoshuaVan #JoaquinBuckley #SeanBrady #Amasov #JoelAvarez

Sean Brady (-175) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+145) Sean Brady is going to want this on the ground as early as possible without a doubt. He does not want a repeat of what happened against Michael Morales... and on the flip side, Buckley definitely doesn’t want another Usman situation where he’s stuck on the bottom for most of the fight. Buckley is explosive out of that southpaw stance... not quite a technician on the feet, but he’s got a solid arsenal of strikes and what he does throw are usually in powerful bursts. If this stays standing for any meaningful amount of time, he’s going to have opportunities to find the chin of Brady just like Morales did. Now here’s where I have to make a bit of an assumption, which I don’t love... but Buckley has to have been working on his takedown defense, right? He’s been at Kill Cliff for at least the last month getting work in with Kamaru Usman, as well as some other past opponents like Andre Fialho, Impa Kasanganay... you would think anti-wrestling and getting back to his feet has been a big focus and he’s already a big, strong, athletically gifted fighter. A few adjustments and we could see a huge improvement in his ability to defend takedowns, and to be fair his takedown defense number even now sits at 72% which is not bad at all. Man this is a tough one... because Brady is going to get him down at some point. I don’t think that’s completely avoidable. But I’ve got a feeling that Buckley’s wrestling defense will be improved and he will be able to create enough moments to win... whether that’s stealing rounds with damage or just catching Brady clean and ending his night all together. And we’ve seen Brady have some durability question marks... Morales knocked him out, Belal ran through him, Chiesa with a little more time looked like he may threaten a finish at the end of R3 when he mounted Brady, Gilbert put him on shaky legs a time or two I do believe . He’s a solid striker technically but he’s absolutely finish-able… I just see Buckley eventually finding that shot. He probably gets taken down a few times along the way, but I think he breaks through. Give me Buckley via Round 3 TKO. Prediction - Buckley via Round 3 TKO Projected Win % - 51% #UFC #MMA #UFC328 #Picks #Prediction #Preview #Breakdown #Gambling #Bet #Prop #SeanStrickland #KhamzatChimaev #TatsuroTaira #JoshuaVan #JoaquinBuckley #SeanBrady #Amasov #JoelAvarez

Ateba Gautier (-1100) vs. Ozzy Diaz (+700) The UFC’s dear Ateba Gautier, returns after a bit of a letdown performance against Andrey Pulyaev to face another carefully picked opponent. And to be clear, I’m not hating on it, I get it. You don’t want to rush young prospects with real star potential. I just think it’s kind of funny that if you go on Tapology, check the UFC middleweight rankings, scroll all the way to the bottom... you’ll see all of Gautier’s UFC opponents, including Ozzy DIaz in one screenshot (aside from Jose Medina, who’s already been cut after losing five straight, including DWCS). Diaz is likely going to be extremely cautious early... honestly maybe the entire fight. He’s a guy who tends to ease his way in. The Joe Pyfer fight started slow, and even the Djorden Santos fight (which turned into a war) didn’t really get going for him until later. He didn’t land his first strike of any significance until about 2 mins in, and only started putting up volume once Santos forced the action. So this could be a slower start unless Gautier really pushes things. If Diaz picks the pace it will likely be very low volume in an effort to avoid the power of Gautier.. Even still, I like Gautier to walk Diaz down and while Gautier isn’t an extremely high volume guy, he tends to pick his shots.. He’s done a pretty damn good job of picking them so far. Give me Ateba Gautier to find the chin of Ozzy Diaz and knock him out in round 1. Prediction - Gautier via Round 1 KO Projected Win % - 91% #UFC #MMA #UFC328 #Picks #Prediction #Preview #Breakdown #Gambling #Bet #Prop #SeanStrickland #KhamzatChimaev #TatsuroTaira #JoshuaVan #JoaquinBuckley #SeanBrady #Amasov #JoelAvarez

Joel Alvarez (+154) vs. Yaroslav Amosov (-185) I expect Amasov to be light on his feet and calculated, likely allowing Joel Alvarez to control the center of the cage. Amasov will be very aware of Alvarez’s power threat and will almost certainly look to get the fight to the mat, where he is most comfortable. Joel Alvarez is extremely dangerous on the ground, but this strength can sometimes work against him. Rather than focusing on defending takedowns, Alvarez often jumps for guillotines and is okay just plays off his back, which can cost him rounds. In this matchup, you’d like to see Alvarez make a conscious effort to defend takedowns and avoid settling in guard. If he doesn’t, Amasov could rack up significant control time leading to a dominant decision win or even a finish on the mat. (though I do believe Joel is good enough to avoid being finished on the mat) On the feet, Alvarez should hold the edge. While Amasov is competent, he doesn’t bring the same level of danger as “El Fenomeno.” Alvarez should be able to force Amasov onto the back foot and win the majority of striking exchanges. The key question is whether he can stay on his feet long enough for this to make a difference. I’m going to slightly lean no.. I’m so scared of Alvarez’s finishing ability (I actually have him as the more likely of the two to find a finish) but I’m going to side with Amasov to grind out a decision in this one. Prediction - Amasov via Decision Projected Win % - 52% #UFC #MMA #UFC328 #Picks #Prediction #Preview #Breakdown #Gambling #Bet #Prop #SeanStrickland #KhamzatChimaev #TatsuroTaira #JoshuaVan #JoaquinBuckley #SeanBrady #Amasov #JoelAvarez

Grant Dawson (-155) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+130) So I think stylistically this is kind of a bad matchup for Grant Dawson. Mateusz Rebecki is an absolute powerhouse... he's a solid wrestler, he has good BJJ, and he brings real explosive power. When you look at Dawson’s record, he doesn’t really have wins over anyone I’d consider a dangerous power puncher. Of his 12 UFC wins, his opponents combine for just 16 knockdowns across 117 fights... that’s crazy low. There are guys in this division who have at or nearly half of that themselves... if not more. Gaethje, Dober, Michael Johnson, Oliveira, Hooker, Jailin Turner... even guys like Jeremy Stephens and Barboza are at 16+ alone! And the two most dangerous punchers Dawson has faced both knocked him out... and I don’t even think of Bobby Green as a one-shot power guy. So at his best, I think Rebecki absolutely has the skills and the power to defend some of the grappling and do real damage to Dawson on the feet. The problem is... he fights at 100% every second of the fight and burns his gas quickly. By Round 2 he’s already a different fighter, and Round 3 gets even worse. I’ll give him credit though, even when he’s exhausted, he still gives it his all until he literally has zero left in the tank, like we saw against Diego Ferreira. As far as how this plays out... I really don’t know. This is such a volatile fight and one I’ve gone back and forth on. But I do think Dawson has the ability to outwrestle Rebecki over the course of 3 rounds. I can see him getting Rebecki down, taking the back, banking control time, and being the more likely of the two to stack rounds while also draining that gas tank. One last thing... I avoid all odds and outside opinions until I finish my own breakdowns, but when I still feel really unsure about a read on a fight, there are 1-2 people I really trust and like to hear what they are seeing and @PeteTheHeatMMA from FightHQ on YouTube is one of those people.. and he brought up a really interesting and solid point. These guys have both spent time at American Top Team (though it doesn’t appear Rebecki has been there in a little while via his Instagram), and if ATT is backing someone here, it’s going to Dawson. So if he’s taking this fight, it likely means they feel like this is a good matchup for Dawson to get back on track. Even with that... I still don’t looove the matchup but I will be holding my breath and taking Grant Dawson. Prediction - Grant Dawson via Decision Projected Win % - 53% #UFC #MMA #UFC328 #Picks #Prediction #Preview #Breakdown #Gambling #Bet #Prop #SeanStrickland #KhamzatChimaev #TatsuroTaira #JoshuaVan #JoaquinBuckley #SeanBrady #Amasov #JoelAvarez

Jim Miller (+220) vs. Jared Gordon (-270) Fun matchup here between two older guys in the division... Jim Miller at 42 and Jared Gordon at 38. And honestly, for a guy in his 40s, Miller still has most of what has gotten him to 24 UFC wins. He’s got pop in his shots, the submission game will always be there (especially that guillotine) and he hasn’t been finished since 2018 against Charles Oliveira. There are definitely fighters younger than him with less left in the tank. On the other side, I do think Gordon is the better striker at this point. He pushes a higher pace, throws more volume, and he’s the guy more likely to win minutes consistently. I also think he can mix in some wrestling if he wants to... but that comes with risk, because you don’t want to be careless shooting on a guy like Miller with that kind of guillotine threat. That’s really what this fight comes down to. Gordon is probably the better minute-to-minute fighter, but Miller is always live for a big moment. And Gordon certainly isn’t immune to being finished. (5 stoppage losses in the UFC) But if pushes a pace, and avoids putting himself in bad positions, I think he’s able to pull away. Give me Jared Gordon via decision in what should be a fun fight. Prediction - Gordon via Decision Projected Win % - 66% #UFC #MMA #UFC328 #Picks #Prediction #Preview #Breakdown #Gambling #Bet #Prop #SeanStrickland #KhamzatChimaev #TatsuroTaira #JoshuaVan #JoaquinBuckley #SeanBrady #Amasov #JoelAvarez

Pat Sabatini (-166) vs. William Gomis (+140) William Gomis is a fighter I’ve been high on in the past and he’s made me some money in return. He fights out of a southpaw stance, has pretty good grappling but striking is his game, much more of a sniper than a power threat or volume striker.. The only times we’ve really seen him land over 5 significant strikes per minute at distance were against Joanderson Brito and Hyder Amil... and if you know how those guys fight, you almost don’t have a choice but to match that kind of pace… He does a decent job defending/reversing takedowns at times, but when he’s faced stronger grapplers, they have been able to get him down and put him in some bad spots. And now he’s gonna be dealing with one of the better grapplers in the division in Pat Sabatini. Outside of getting caught with something like a high kick or knee, I just can’t help but see Sabatini closing the distance, getting ahold of Gomis and dragging him to the ground where I think he’ll dominate the fight. Give me Sabatini via wrestling-heavy decision or submission. Prediction - Sabatini via Round 2 Submission Projected Win % - 76% #UFC #MMA #UFC328 #Picks #Prediction #Preview #Breakdown #Gambling #Bet #Prop #SeanStrickland #KhamzatChimaev #TatsuroTaira #JoshuaVan #JoaquinBuckley #SeanBrady #Amasov #JoelAvarez

Baisangur Susurkaev (-675) vs. Djorden Santos (+490) So as I broke this one down, I didn’t look at any odds as I don’t like seeing lines, picks, or breakdowns until I’ve broken the fight down myself... but I was sure from the moment I saw the matchup that Susurkaev would be a bigger favorite than he deserves to be (I was thinking somewhere around -400)... And I was right but also wrong. He’s an even bigger favorite than what I thought was already too high. He’s facing Djorden Santos, who is well-rounded, but more importantly... The dude is a dog. He pushes a very high pace on the feet, and he’s not going to be intimidated in there. He’ll go across the octagon, pop Susurkaev with his jab and get in his grill. Susurkaev is extremely talented, no doubt about it... but he fights so relaxed at times that it almost feels like he’s dismissive of his opponents, and that’s gotten him in trouble before. If he goes in there dancing around, hands low, smiling and just casually covering up by cupping his head when Santos throws… Santos will let him have it. And that’s where this gets interesting. Santos has shown solid takedown defense, and if he’s able to keep this fight standing and turn it into a dog fight, he is very much live for an upset.. Stylistically, this is easily Susurkaev’s toughest test so far and even in his wins, while he’s gotten finishes, they haven’t been the cleanest performances. Hoowwever... I still do think Susurkaev wins. He has the grappling edge, probably more one-shot power, and the more diverse striking overall. If he comes in focused and doesn’t mess around, he should be able to get it done more times than not. I’ll say this is a really good scrap for as long as it lasts but Baisangur is able to find a fight ending shot in an exchange. Prediction - Susurkaev via Round 2 TKO Estimated Win % - 73% #UFC #MMA #UFC328 #Picks #Prediction #Preview #Breakdown #Gambling #Bet #Prop #SeanStrickland #KhamzatChimaev #TatsuroTaira #JoshuaVan #JoaquinBuckley #SeanBrady #Amasov #JoelAvarez