TKL Private Feed
90 posts
BREAKING: President Trump has ordered a fresh attack on Iran aimed at getting Iran to surrender, per WSJ.
Details include:
1. The attack could begin as soon as this weekend and would last a few days
2. President Trump has reportedly been saying the Iranians are “crazy” for weeks behind closed doors
3. CBS News reports attacks on Iranian energy assets could begin as soon as this weekend
The Iran War is now entering its 6th month.
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BREAKING: Fed Chair Warsh is considering reducing the amount of times that the Fed meets in a year, per NYT.
Details include:
1. The FOMC has met eight times annually since 1981, with Federal law requiring at least four meetings per year
2. Fed Chair Warsh has reportedly not proposed a specific number of meetings
3. Fewer meetings would mean fewer scheduled rate votes and less frequent policy decisions
A major shift is underway at the Fed.
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The bond market is out of control.
The US 30Y Note Yield is now up to 5.27%, its highest level since June 2007.
This officially marks a +450 basis point rally since the low seen in 2020.
At the current pace, we are on track to see US 30Y mortgage rates exceed 7.50% by year-end.
And to top it all off, Fed Chair Warsh is now adamant that the market should operate independently, without Fed guidance.
Even without rate hikes or Fed guidance, the market is sending rates higher; operating exactly how Fed Chair Warsh wants it to operate.
The bond market will soon be the most talked about component of global capital markets.
This simply is not sustainable.
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BREAKING: The S&P 500 erases all gains and turns red on the day as the US 10Y Note Yield surges to its highest level since January 2025.
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BREAKING: Apple stock, $AAPL, extends losses to -8% after reporting weaker than expected revenue guidance.
The stock has now erased -$390 billion in market cap in 60 minutes.
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The carnage in South Korea just keeps getting worse.
Assets under management (AUM) in South Korea's leveraged ETFs has now dropped by -$37 billion, or -70%, from its all-time high seen just over 30 days ago.
As a result, total AUM is down to ~$16 billion, the lowest since early-April.
This follows a staggering +500% surge since the start of 2026.
Most of the decline has been driven by domestic-listed funds, which account for 70% of total leveraged ETF assets.
Leveraged ETFs in South Korea are collapsing.
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BREAKING: Microsoft stock, $MSFT, closes the day +15.5% higher, officially posting its best day since October 2008.
The stock added +$455 billion in market cap today.
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BREAKING: Amazon stock, $AMZN, surges over +7% after reporting stronger than expected Q2 2026 earnings.
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BREAKING: The S&P 500 extends gains to over +100 points on the day as dip buyers rotate into technology and chip stocks.
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BREAKING: Situational Awareness sold "the bulk" of its stock portfolio to Citadel after "big losses in AI," per WSJ.
The hedge fund, which reportedly had a net asset value of $45 billion on July 1st, is now in "crisis mode," WSJ reports.
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
The Situational Awareness situation. It is now being reported that the AI hedge fund has exited its entire public equity portfolio this month. But, what does this really mean? As of July 1st, the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the fund is now being reported to have been ~$45 billion. First, let's put this into perspective. NAV = (Assets − Liabilities). This is the fund's equity capital, also known as the investors' money after accounting for borrowings. This is NOT the same as the size of the fund's positions, particularly because the fund has been known for utilizing extreme amounts of leverage. For example: 1. At 2x leverage, a $45 billion NAV supports ~$90 billion of gross market exposure 2. At 3x leverage, that rises to ~$135 billion 3. At 4x leverage, that rises to ~ $180 billion This means that exiting its "public equity book" does not necessarily imply $45 billion of stock changed hands. It was likely much more. Depending on the fund's leverage and portfolio construction, the gross amount of securities unwound could have been well in excess of $100 billion. When considering these facts, the market has actually held up exceptionally well. There has never been an era of investing like the AI era. Volatility is the new normal.
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The Situational Awareness situation.
It is now being reported that the AI hedge fund has exited its entire public equity portfolio this month.
But, what does this really mean?
As of July 1st, the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the fund is now being reported to have been ~$45 billion.
First, let's put this into perspective.
NAV = (Assets − Liabilities). This is the fund's equity capital, also known as the investors' money after accounting for borrowings.
This is NOT the same as the size of the fund's positions, particularly because the fund has been known for utilizing extreme amounts of leverage. For example:
1. At 2x leverage, a $45 billion NAV supports ~$90 billion of gross market exposure
2. At 3x leverage, that rises to ~$135 billion
3. At 4x leverage, that rises to ~ $180 billion
This means that exiting its "public equity book" does not necessarily imply $45 billion of stock changed hands. It was likely much more.
Depending on the fund's leverage and portfolio construction, the gross amount of securities unwound could have been well in excess of $100 billion.
When considering these facts, the market has actually held up exceptionally well.
There has never been an era of investing like the AI era.
Volatility is the new normal.
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BREAKING: Sandisk, $SNDK, and Micron, $MU, surge +25% and +17% respectively as dip buyers pile back into chip stocks.
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BREAKING: Microsoft stock, $MSFT, surges +15% and is now on track for its biggest daily gain since 2020.
From one of the most hated to one of the most loved names literally overnight.
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BREAKING: US June PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, falls to 3.7%, in-line with expectations.
Core PCE inflation fell to 3.3%, the second highest reading since October 2024.
US inflation continues to run at nearly double the Fed's 2.0% target.
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Tokenized asset growth is exploding.
Total holder count of onchain tokenized equities has now surged to a record 759,000.
This metric is up +92% over the last 30 days and +522% year-to-date.
The growth continues to be fueled by demand to trade tokenized equities outside of regular market hours.
Amid this trend, the world's largest onchain platform, Jupiter, has reported +360% YTD growth in off-market monthly trading volume.
Chip and memory stocks have become the most popular tokenized assets in the onchain market.
We expect 1+ million tokenized equity holders by year-end.
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BREAKING: Meta stock, $META, crashes over -9% after reporting weaker than expected earnings.
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Fed days have become a complete free-for-all.
The S&P 500 has now seen THREE swings totaling ~$2.9 TRILLION in market cap during today's session.
Between 9:30 AM ET and 12:15 PM ET, the S&P 500 fell -85 points, losing -$770 billion.
Between 12:15 PM ET and 2:55 PM ET, the S&P 500 rallied +110 points, adding +$1 trillion.
Between 2:55 PM ET and 3:45 PM ET, the S&P 500 fell 120 points, losing -$1.1 trillion.
The era of Fed guidance is over and the market is not liking it.
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The last 30 days have reminded many of a key lesson when investing.
Fear and greed are the two most powerful drivers of price action.
This an entirely mechanical move driven by excessive green in the market.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
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Absolutely incredible.
In an unprecedented move, South Korea's stock market just collapsed -44% in 40 days, erasing -$2 trillion in market cap.
Now, South Korea's finance ministry has announced plans to "stabilize" the market.
What is happening? Let us explain.
(a thread)
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Unusual times lead to unusual swings in the market, and the S&P 500 is swinging trillions in market cap.
Our subscribers are capitalizing on it.
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