Truflation

Truflation launches the US Gasoline Index, a new independent, high-frequency tracker of consumer prices at the pump. Gasoline index aggregates multiple verified sources (AAA, GasBuddy, Numbeo, EIA, and more) daily at the national, regional, and state levels to deliver real-time visibility into one of the most volatile CPI components. This index uses the same transparent, multi-source methodology as our flagship Truflation CPI, providing crucial early signals for hedging, budgeting, and macro positioning. You can track US gasoline prices at the regional level (West, Midwest, South, and Northeast) or by state (accessible from the composition tab). In an environment where gasoline remains a leading driver of consumer price volatility, choose independent daily data for more precise and timely risk management!

Our independent measures of consumer inflation both climbed sharply in March, driven mainly by rising gasoline prices: US CPI was 1.74% YoY today US PCE was 2.5% YoY today We are also expecting more inflationary drivers as the oil shock and shipment problems translate into higher prices for other products.

@DeItaone If momentum builds, energy markets could shift. Truflation tracks the inflation impact in real-time, with a CPI of 1.74%.

- U.S. AND A GROUP OF REGIONAL MEDIATORS ARE DISCUSSING THE POSSIBILITY OF HOLDING HIGH LEVEL PEACE TALKS WITH IRAN - AXIOS

@unusual_whales Oil markets watching. So are we, CPI at 1.74% . Lagging data will catch up later. We track it now.

BREAKING: US and Iran may hold high level peace talks Thursday, per Axios

@KobeissiLetter If a deal eases oil pressures, inflation could follow. Truflation's real-time CPI at 1.74%, we'll see it move before the lagging data does.

BREAKING: The U.S. and a group of regional mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level peace talks with Iran as soon as Thursday, per Axios.

@Kalshi If a deal eases oil pressures, inflation could follow. Truflation's real-time CPI at 1.74%, worth watching which way it moves from here

JUST IN: US and Iran to reportedly hold high-level talks as soon as Thursday

@zerohedge Our Gasoline Index has been tracking the climb, national average now at $3.93. Worth watching if peace talks shift the trend. truflation.com/marketplace/ga…

U.S. Average Retail Gasoline Prices Rise 6.2%, Diesel Up 6%

@LeadingReport If a deal comes together, energy markets could react quickly. Truflation's Gasoline Index will be watching. truflation.com/marketplace/ga…

BREAKING: US and Iran may hold in-person peace talks this week in Pakistan, per Fox News.

@DeItaone Truflation's real-time CPI at 1.74% . Worth considering how the picture might look with fresher data.

FED HIKE REMAINS UNLIKELY, WOLFE SAYS Despite markets pricing about 30% odds of a rate increase by October, Wolfe Research argues the Fed still isn’t likely to hike this summer. A softer labor market—shaped by AI trends and seasonal shifts—along with geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict, should keep the central bank on hold, suggesting markets are too hawkish right now. kalshi.com/markets/kxfedh…

@WinnerInvestor Seeing productivity increases and tech as a strong deflationary force, some might seek to prevent deflation and keep prices up. We still see actual deflation in rents and communications.

@truflation even if the war resolves, oil/gas won't be back to where it was for at least 6 months. it's game over for disinflation.

Crucial for GDP and inflation numbers: this is also why the Fed predicts higher GDP in their latest SEP/black sheet released at the FOMC, and this is what they mean every time they say AI/tech is causing increased productivity. That extra productivity drives higher US GDP and potentially lower inflation: you get more things produced/done for the same price within the same work hours. Except this time, the labor unit cost also increased, so it's not deflationary yet. But everyone predicts it will eventually be very deflationary.

@truflation productivity numbers… okay, cool I guess? ‍️

BREAKING: Nonfarm business productivity rose 1.8% annualized in Q4 (revised down from 2.8% preliminary), with output increasing +1.5% and hours worked plateauing since 2022, -0.2%. From fourth-quarter 2024 to fourth-quarter 2025, the nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.5%, while the annual average productivity increased 2.1% from 2024 to 2025. Implications: the 2025 above-trend productivity supports non-inflationary growth and potential GDP, supporting the latest FOMC GDP forecasts.

US Unit labor costs accelerated sharply to +4.4% in Q4 (revised up from 2.8%), driven by hourly compensation rising 6.3% while productivity came in softer. Real (inflation-adjusted) hourly compensation still increased a healthy 3.7% QoQ and 2.1% between Q4 2024 and Q4 2025. Annual unit labor costs rose 2.3% in 2025. The downward revision to Q4 productivity and upward revision to unit labor costs highlight that wage pressures outpaced efficiency gains late last year. If this pattern persists, it could keep underlying cost pressures alive, potentially adding to consumer inflation; however, a higher real wage growth also supports consumer spending.

Manufacturing data painted a weaker picture for Q4, but remained strong YoY: Manufacturing productivity fell 2.5% in Q4, with lower output (-2.8%) and higher hours worked (+0.3%), pushing Q4 unit labor costs up 9.1%, the largest quarterly jump since Q3 2022. However, total manufacturing sector productivity increased 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago. Manufacturing productivity also rose 1.9% in 2025 (revised down 0.1%), the strongest year since 2010.

@unusual_whales If it holds, oil prices could ease and that would show up in inflation data. Truflation tracks it in real time.

BREAKING: Trump says Iran wants to make a deal badly, and it could happen in 5 days, per FOX

@DeItaone With real-time data, they'd see the recent uptick is mostly tied to the war and gasoline, not broad based pressure. Truflation CPI at 1.73% , core at 1.36% . Worth considering what changes when you stop looking in the rearview.

*GOOLSBEE: COULD SEE CIRCUMSTANCE WHERE WE'D NEED TO RAISE RATES

@Polymarket Our Gasoline Index will be watching; prices have been climbing all month. If a deal happens, we'll see it at the pump first. truflation.com/marketplace/ga…

BREAKING: Trump says a deal with Iran could be reached within five days or sooner.

@Kalshi Meanwhile, our Gasoline Index is just sitting there at $3.93, waiting to see who's right. truflation.com/marketplace/ga…

JUST IN: Trump says Iran talks happened last night He says he’s "not sure" why Iran media is denying.

@stats_feed The gap between what official data shows and what people actually pay. Good thing Truflation tracks the real numbers because someone has to.

What do you dislike about politics?

@spectatorindex Headline CPI at 1.73%, core at 1.36%. The divergence between energy-driven inflation and broader trends is worth noting.

BREAKING: Gold is now down 6%