Turkey Scrap Guy

#Scrap supply comfortable for Turkey for Nov shipment. Even 5 US cargos still available for overseas, on top of around another 13 cargos. Turkish demand estimated at 14 cargos. With China’s inability to help spot prices, McCloskey forecasts US 80:20 sales just below $380/t CFR

China steel futures’ drop this week has priced-in a disappointment from China tomorrow. And futures spiked in evening session today - sign of pre-empting some positivity tomorrow. US market expected to be even stronger in Nov - US exporters will not move to lower Turkey bids

Turkish #scrap demand pauses after lengthy buy spree. Local rebar demand lost momentum. 23 cargos so far Nov shipment. EU still under pressure to sell from weak domestic demand + desperate to hold onto margins. Turkey demand to return at steady pace after China’s 12 Oct meeting

Turkey #scrap price rise cooled end last week. Will only cool further after China lost steam. But demand expected to outweigh supply, so a further rise later is possible. 19 cargos already traded for Nov shipment, 8 bought by one buyer, expect over 40 cargos of demand in total

Bids @ $380/t CFR for US HMS 1/2 80:20 #scrap were rejected. Market price maybe stands at $385/t CFR today, could be $390/t by end of week. Buyers still capitalizing on less bullish outlook of sellers. Scrap-rebar spreads reaching best levels since June 2023. Demand is the driver

McCloskey’s EU Ferrous Scrap Supply Index Sep 2024 showed a very slight expansion in #scrap supply m-o-m. The 2nd consecutive month of expansion. Residential flow improved notably in Germany. Manufacturing flows tighten further. Sellers will now hold material after China bull run

Excess EU supply now sold. Nov shipment next. More + more Chinese stimulus including fiscal talked about. US workers’ strike won’t affect bulk. Indian recovery now showing. If sellers hold, this is a clear path up for Turkish #scrap price. Issue is Germany to be weak again in Oct

Iskenderun mills sell #rebar $609/t. Turkey producing export orders early to reduce local availability. Scrap-local rebar spread widest since end Jun ‘23, margins highest since mid Aug ‘23. Still pumping up prices today. EU #scrap sales appetite causes $5/t fall in Turkish price

Izmir mill sold #rebar equiv $588-589/t. Lowest price in market. Iskenderun sharply increased offers to equiv $604-609/t. Kardemir sold out @ $600/t. Turkey might have EU #scrap sellers trapped/will widen margins even further. Historically, scrap price would jump in such a market

Turkey pushing #steel rebar offers UP + pushing #scrap prices DOWN when margins already at 5-month high - I guess the word is ‘interesting’. US FED cuts 50bps after many months of soft economic data - will help to cut some scrap seller panic. So would a China rise tomorrow…

@GULECALI Not Netherlands

@TurkeyScrapGuy TSR NETHERLAND to TURKEY 80:20 364 $

EU working to get docks down. Helped by weakness of Germany. Might move to $365 US-Turkey (down $5/t) based on latest talks. Not enough offers for a $10/t fall. Small fall most likely. Doubt FED’s 25/50 bps cut will change things short-term, unless China reacts with some force

Couple USD fall makes some sense. Netherlands supply is better. McCloskey EU supply index showed small expansion end Aug, and NL shows this today with Germany down avg €25/t. But other EU areas not showing supply change/US tight - Turkey down $10/t (buyer bids) far less logical

#Scrap sellers unconvinced by China move but execution of interest rate cut, reserve ratio reduction and Oct #steel production cuts would clearly support. 6+ Turkish buyers have not bought 1x Oct shipment scrap cargo yet. If sell-side is calm at IREPAS, scrap price should be firm

@steelmarketnews Yeh, changing every day. CME Fed Watch Tool is the one I look at. Yeh, market expectation all week has been for 25bps

@TurkeyScrapGuy you check reuters i write about it every day. chance of 50bps cut was greater for many days before this week including major financial institutions.

@steelmarketnews And 75% chance of 25bps on Monday

@steelmarketnews But didn’t increase more than 35% to 85% :) It was 67% chance of 25bps on Tuesday. Just checked Reuters

@AlexCar48971112 Was told an Albanian mill being offline is helping Turks’ cause

@AlexCar48971112 Balkans, today. 5kt from Marmara

More Chinese billet booked - @ just below $465/t CFR Turkey. #Scrap-rebar margins much better - $585/t fob sales, $592-595/t local sales - mills were short + happy to pay scrap prices for now. But Q4 and now Q1 billet arrivals are fundamentally going to pressure scrap prices Q4