@hamids @dustinalper Thanks. I meant the nominal value of your 20% increase in allocation. Is this ~$10,000 or ~$500,000?
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Tyler Jackson
35 posts
@TylerJa27222278 @dustinalper Extremely cheap relative to revenue and profits. If founder turns it around, could be huge. As an acquisition target, it's also very cheap.
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Yesterday and today, I've increased my $BMBL position by ~20%. On last week's Buy Hold Rant podcast, @dustinalper and I talked about Bumble, the potential sale rumors, and what this company *should* be worth. And that's assuming their new product is a dud - but there's a good chance it will change the dating app scene again!
I'm also digging their new ad campaign: instagram.com/bumble/
Here is the clip from Buy Hold Rant: youtube.com/watch?v=ArAE63…
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@hamids @dustinalper Also - what about blackstone recently selling $100M worth?
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@hamids 60$ a share by this time next year. Forward price to sales is so cheap!
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$RIVN seems poised to break $20/share based on all the good news and momentum the company has had lately:
- Universal praise for R2 by reviewers
- Massive backlog of pre-orders for R2
- Beating production and delivery estimates in Q2
- Continued progress on self-driving technologies
The entire company is just $26 Billion still. Seems to me like Rivian is just about to wake up investors.
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Let's talk about $RIVN, which is up ~10% today and ~30% in the last week...
The company had given Q2 delivery guidance of 9,000-11,000K vehicles. They ended up delivering 12,194!
And more importantly, they raised the full-year total from a guide of 62,000-67,000 to 65,000-70,000.
It's safe to say that with R2 being a major hit, Rivian will likely beat the top of that guide and deliver more than 70,000 vehicles in 2026.
What does that mean?
That means for the 2nd half of 2026, Rivian will likely deliver over 47,000 vehicles!
For context, in the 2nd half of 2025, despite the $7,500 tax credit driving Q3 2025 sales, Rivian delivered 22,946 vehicles total!
So in the 2nd half of 2026 Rivian is GUIDING to increase deliveries by more than 104%!
And they will likely even beat that!
There's more to be excited about too:
- Rivian has been highly criticized for lack of positive vehicle gross margins. Over the past 18 months, they've brought the costs of their R1 down substantially and as they spread the cost of depreciating manufacturing facilities over a larger number of vehicles, their margins on the R1 should be positive in Q4.
- Then there is the margins on R2: from the design phase, Rivian has been building the R2 with reducing costs as a primary goal. The R2 "Bill of Materials" (or BOM for short) is roughly 1/2 the BOM of R1. It was designed so that the labor it takes to put the R2 together is also easier, meaning the R2 costs should be roughly 1/2 of the cost of R1. Since Rivian is selling primarily the launch edition of the R2 at ~$58K each, there's a high probability that the R2 is going to contribute to margins as soon as Q3, but almost certainly by Q4.
- Then there is autonomy! @RJScaringe has reiterated multiple times that they expect to release hands-free, point-to-point driving by the end of 2027. I would expect this to be on-par with $TSLA FSD from about 18 months ago...it'll be incredible when compared to any other self-driving capabilities of other vehicles, but not quite as good as Tesla's FSD. However, the rate of improvement should also start to accelerate as Rivian has more R2s on the road.
And this company is currently valued at just $25 Billion!
Show me any other company with this much tech, products customers love, manufacturing capacity, sales/service/charging infrastructure, rapid growth and such a bright future, that is valued at just $25 Billion!
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@Hilbe When are figures released? It’s usually ahead of earnings
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Based on what I've seen recently, I think Rivian hits the "Realistic" number below for R2s built. Deliveries will be lower for R2 since they were still figuring out tooling and quality. I do think R1/EDV delivery #'s will surprise some people. Customer are coming in to test drive an R2 and some end up buying an R1, plus Amazon seems to be ramping up EDV deliveries.
Chris Hilbert@Hilbe
📊 My R2 Q2 Estimates 📊 Pessimistic: 2,000 to 2,500 Realistic: 2,500 to 3,000 Optimistic: 3,000 to 3,500+ Explanation: Everyone keeps asking me "how many R2 are they making?". To me this means velocity, or how many units they make per day/week/month. We've seen ~1,000 VINs arriving at service centers. Assuming those units spent a few weeks in transit, they were produced near the start of the month of June. I will need to see a door jam label to confirm a "6/26" date to be certain. A few weeks prior we saw a 500 VIN QR code at the governors visit on May 19th. Based on these data points, let us assume they made 500 R2 in 2 weeks or 250/week. This number will continue to go up, but there are only 2 weeks left in June. Simple math without any increase in speed for the month of June you get to the below estimates. 6/1 - 1,000 6/15 - 1,500 6/30 - 2,000 (End of Q2) Assuming they increase velocity of the line you should see those numbers improve over the month of June. This is how I did my estimate - my very worst/base case they have 2,000 made by EOM. If they improve production to 300 to 400/week we see a more realistic number. If they put the pedal to the floor and hit no supply chain issues maybe they finish the quarter with over 3,000 R2 produced. What's your guess?
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Buy. Hold. Rant.
BUY.
In that order. When buying stocks, I think of it as buying a company - so I'm in the mindset of being an owner of a company that I would be proud to own, but also I'm buying it at a reasonable price, and the company is in an interesting market with lots of opportunity.
HOLD.
Then comes the hardest part: Holding. Being patient is by far the toughest part of investing for the long term. The market is a noisy place. Prices skyrocket one day only to crash the next, based on no news, unrelated news, made up news by pundits and everything in between. The real news is company financials and commentary which comes out quarterly, so it's sparse and requires lots of patience.
RANT.
That's why I love to Rant! In the absence of being able to do other things, and exercising patience, I get through it by ranting. Ranting on X mostly, but also, with the help of a colleague, @dustinalper, I have launched the @BuyHoldRant podcast where we also rant on camera.
If you enjoy my rants, consider subscribing on YouTube, Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Oh, and my portfolio has been public for 4+ years now (link in bio) and it's 100% free. I do all my trades transparently. Every single trade for the past 4 years has been public.
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@hamids When do you expect rivian stock to start gaining momentum? I think It could be north of $60/share in 12mo.
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Nobody, literally nobody, is able to predict markets with this level of accuracy. Tom Lee is no exception and has been wrong a bunch of times.
It’s fascinating to me that people with such claims, despite their dismal track record, get any attention from investors. What is our fascination with such people!?
Sam Badawi@Sam_Badawi
TOM LEE JUST LAID OUT THE 3 PHASES OF THE MARKET 2026 1. NOW - LATE SUMMER - S&P 500 could reach 7,700-7,800 - AI and growth stocks continue to lead - Bull market remains intact 2. SEPTEMBER - OCTOBER - An "abrupt change in market conditions" - Correction that could feel like a bear market - Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs - New equity supply equal to roughly 5-6% of S&P 500 market cap - Energy and Fed transition risks 3. LATE 2026 - Strong recovery after the correction - Potentially one of the strongest periods in decades - AI, productivity gains, and economic growth drive the next leg higher
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IF there is a bubble that bursts, who do you think will drop the most?
Noah@antibearthesis
The Magnificent 7 has an imposter.
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@hamids Whats your price target on rivian for end of the year?
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What would happen to SpaceX $SPCX if $META offered Anthropic the same datacenter facility that they got from SpaceX at 1/2 the price, but only on the condition they cancel their SpaceX contract by exercising the 90-day cancel clause?
That would wipe $15 Billion of expected SpaceX revenue in the next year and based on Q1 2026 growth numbers, SpaceX's growth would be back at ~15% annually.
Mark Zuckerberg certainly has the motivation to screw over Elon, considering how much Elon publicly hates on Zuck. And Anthropic has the motivation to both save money and also Elon was publicly critical of them up until they started paying him. Both companies could be motivated to crush SpaceX's IPO and teach Elon a lesson.
Kind of an interesting thought.
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Building 2 is where Body and General Assembly of R2 happens. This is terrible news.
Chris Hilbert@Hilbe
🚨 Breaking News: R2 Factory Storm Damage 🚨 The Midwest had serious storms last night and building 2 in Normal - the R2 factory - sustained damage according to a Reddit post. You can see the roof caved in from the attached photo. Source: reddit.com/r/Rivian/s/OSZ…
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@Hilbe What are we thinking the stock will do up until march 12th?
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Can you imagine this as an Ascend interior? 🤔
Chris Hilbert@Hilbe
Has everyone forgotten that when Gen 2 launched, that Forest Edge interior was to make a return? 👀👀👀
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I like these prices. I do think they bundle extra stuff though to push the ASP up at launch.
Hamid@hamids
Pure Speculation, but this is sort of what I'm expecting for $RIVN R2 Editions/Specs/Pricing. The Launch edition specs are in Red. I could see them getting that under $60K.
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For the record, I've been consistently saying Rivian will launch R2 with Performance Dual Motor and at $60k+. If they come in at under $60k, I think they risk a longer runway to positive gross margin on R2. Dual Motor will sell like crazy though and probably priced around $55,000 with a lower margin.
Chris Hilbert@Hilbe
Time to make some people mad again. Rivian will sell the most optioned (high margin) R2 at launch - I guarantee it. RJ claimed they would have a limited number of SKUs to reduce initial complexity as well. If it were me, I’d launch: R2 Performance Dual Large $45k Base RWD LFP +$5k Performance +$5k Dual +$3k Large +$2k Premium Audio +$2k Paint +$2k Interior +$2k Wheels Depending on paint, wheels, and interior you’re looking at $60k to $70k for an R2 launch edition. To sweeten the deal, I’m sure they will toss in similar stuff that they did with Quad - Lifetime Connect+ and RAP+. These are my guesstimates based on R1 and not official numbers or launch configuration.
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PSA: Major Rivian website updates usually happen around 1:00pm EST. Social media updates happen throughout the day without a pattern. We've also seen a lot of random news drops in the AM. I guess be ready!
GIF
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