Tyler Robert
44 posts


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@jtsla4 You said you predict a dip down to 500, that would be a 28% decline from current levels
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@DanielTNiles @JoeSquawk @SquawkCNBC Fantastic summary Dan, I have been following you for years, and always appreciate the honesty and transparency on your thought process
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I enjoyed my discussion early today with @JoeSquawk on @SquawkCNBC around the Magnificent 7 results so far and my thoughts going forward. Below are some details:
Be Careful What You Wish For
On July 11th, I wrote “Be careful what you wish for.” CPI for June had come down 0.1% from May which was the first decline since May 2020 spurring hopes of earlier and more Fed cuts. Unfortunately, this also resulted in a violent rotation within the market on that day. This was best illustrated by $NVDA down -5.6%. Additionally, the Magnificent7/Nasdaq fell (-4.0%/-2.0%) while the Russell 2000 rose (+3.6%). In hindsight, July 10th was the all-time record high for Nasdaq (down 7.8% since then through August 1st) and a few days later on July 16th for the S&P (down 3.9% since then).
I also wrote on July 11th, “I continue to believe there is a rising mismatch between the amount of capex spent on AI and the resulting revenues being generated… my plan is to be very conservative in my positioning the day the members of the Mag7 report while looking to add to my positions on corrections.”
I think the crux of the problem in the stock market today is investors finally want to see a return on all this AI spending. Unfortunately, AI spending guidance has gone up during earnings season while revenue expectations & margin guidance have gone down for many of the tech companies including Mag7 components $MSFT and $GOOGL.
Only $META and $AAPL beat revenue/EPS expectations for their June quarterly results and had forward revenue/EPS expectations go up. In Q1, six of the seven Mag7 stocks went up the day after reporting results (Meta was down 11%) and on average the Mag7 were up 4%. So far in Q2 only $META and hopefully $AAPL today are likely to be up on their results. Based on the pre-market prices of both $AAPL and $AMZN, the six that have reported so far are down about 4% the day after results.
On a positive note, I think the Fed will cut 2-3 times before year-end to try and ensure the first soft landing following a hiking cycle since the mid-1990s. With unemployment still near 4%, more job openings than people unemployed and multiple Fed rate cuts coming, a soft landing seems likely even as the economic data continues to soften.
Current Magnificent 7 Thoughts:
$AAPL: This is my favorite of the Mag7 given revenues have grown between 0-3% for the past three years and I believe they can now grow in the double digits in 2025 driven by a multi-year iPhone upgrade cycle due to AI. This is the only name of the Mag7 where I feel confident revenue growth should accelerate in 2025 versus 2024. They beat revs/EPS for the June quarter driven by iPhone & guided above expectations for the September quarter.
$META: Meta did not have any advertising issues (unlike $GOOGL) & beat revs/EPS for the June quarter and forward revs/EPS forecasts went up following results despite increasing their spending on AI. Their massive spend on AI is helping them to increase engagement on their services and monetize them better. They should also benefit from massive political ad spend for the upcoming elections. This is my second favorite of the Mag7.
$NVDA: During the internet infrastructure buildout, $CSCO revs increased ~15.5x over 5+ years from the end of 1994 to its peak and the stock rose ~4000%. Nvidia, since the end of 2022 when ChatGPT was introduced has seen revenues go up “only” ~4.5x with the stock up over 600% over the past 1 ½ years. I believe the ultimate peak is still several years in the future. However Cisco’s stock had intra-year declines of 26% in late 95, 38% in early 97; and 37% in late 98 during periods when growth slowed. I anticipate similar volatility for Nvidia over the next several years while both the revenues and stock more than double over that time as the AI buildout continues. Also unlike Cisco that had multiple competitors back then in Alcatel, Lucent and Nortel to name just a few, $NVDA is in a class of its own today. I expect them to beat revenue/EPS expectations in their July quarter and to guide above current expectations for the October quarter when they report in late August.
$MSFT: Despite their pole position in AI due to their relationship with OpenAI, Azure revenues were less than expected and the rest of their customers grew slower than expected. PCs with AI capabilities could drive a small upgrade cycle next year and I do believe they will benefit from the OpenAI relationship going forward. Forward estimates were cut after results.
$AMZN: While AWS turned out to be solid, their e-commerce business not surprisingly felt the same strains we are seeing at other retailers. This will be a balancing act between recession fears in their retail business versus solid growth in their AI business. Forward estimates went down after results.
$GOOGL: They had a large miss in Youtube revenues but more importantly, it is hard for me to believe they maintain over 90% share in search if all this spending in AI by other companies sees a ROI. In that regard, SearchGPT from OpenAI comes to mind and their relationship with Microsoft. $GOOGL should see some help though over the near-term from political ad spend for the elections. This is the name within the Mag7 we have the most concerns about over a multi-year period around share loss. Forward estimates went lower after results.
$TSLA: They reported an upside surprise to deliveries for the first time in a while, but I just cannot get comfortable with their valuation or the heavy price competition in the EV market right now which has led to lower than expected EV gross margins. Forward estimates went lower after results.
In summary, my plan is to remain selective in my positioning within the Mag7 while continuing to look at other forgotten sectors now that this AI driven market seems to be finally broadening and the Fed is likely to cut rates.
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@DJHunt This is great Jason! Would love to know your thoughts on using tools such as langchain, llamaindex,haystack, etc to make RAG an easier, repeatable process? And do you see any clear differentiators evolving in that space? I have played around mostly with langhain so far.
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My simple explanation: How does Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) work? youtu.be/9jKwz7JOwEo?si…

YouTube
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Some of y'all have about 24-48 hours before your friends understand how you were such a gift giving wizard by using HeyOllie.ai 😉
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I created an iOS shortcut that allows you to replace Siri with ChatGPT.
It’s super simple:
- Install extension
- Enter OpenAI API key
- Add to home
- Tell it what you want
Here’s a video of Hey GPT in action.
It blows Siri out of the water.
Install: icloud.com/shortcuts/8bcc…
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@WickedViper23 @SmokeAwayyy Honestly believe that for the average person , April will be pretty much same as normal
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@SmokeAwayyy When every participant thinks they can out "OMG WILD TIMES AHEAD!!!" all the others, you know things are gonna get wild 😂
Imagine what April is going to be like.
Oh, yeah... you can't.
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Wanna win a $12.4k package including $10k ticket to the Wynn Championship courtesy
@wpt_global?
Guess the combined score of the Bills/Lions football game
Retweet
Follow @killogram & @wpt_global
Price is right Rules-Don't go over
Random winner from ties
Winner announced tomorrow
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Tyler Robert retweetledi

Umpire: Bruce Dreckman
Final: Cardinals 1, Cubs 6
#STLCards // #ItsDifferentHere
#STLvsCHC // #CHCvsSTL

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Tyler Robert retweetledi

Unless, of course, there's an indemnification agreement that can be revisited later
Los Angeles Rams@RamsNFL
We're all in.
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Tyler Robert retweetledi
Tyler Robert retweetledi

It doesn't get any bigger than this! Ocelot Consulting is excited to welcome @AdrianCartier78 as our new VP of Data Science. linkedin.com/pulse/adrian-c… via @LinkedIn
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