US Poll Watch

#Election2026 - FIRST LOOK at my official 2026 Senate Forecast. 🟥 50 🟦 50. This is unlike previous updates; these predictions factor in fundamentals and recent results in each state, meaning that if the election were tomorrow, this is what my final prediction would be. It's still a snapshot in time, but we've crossed the threshold from "speculation" into "confident predictions" on most of these races. Right now, things are incredibly close, but Republicans have the slightest of slight edge to retain the Senate, although losing three seats in the process.

Detailed House victory margin forecast July 14, 2026 🟦 225 🟥 210

#Election2026 - Generic Ballot 🟦 Democratic Party - 50% 🟥 Republican Party - 44%

@arjungeraldrama The generic ballot average is just an average of the last 10 quality polls. For Senate, House, and Governor, it is a basis of polls, fundamentals, generic ballot, swing, and other candidate specific factors. All polls must have a minimum grade of B/C from Nate Silver. Thanks!

@USPollingWatch How do you do your pooling

#Election2026 - Generic Ballot 🟦 Democratic Party - 46% 🟥 Republican Party - 42%

SC Senate: After the death of Lindsey Graham, I now believe that Russell Fry will win the GOP nomination for the seat, due to Trump's remarks on the race (and basically anything he says goes in the GOP.) The election will be on August 11. Fry is now factored into my model.

NEWS: President Trump to address nation Thursday, will speak about 2020 election security.

@HallCD81411 That is a typo on my part; Chris Sununu was the former governor of New Hampshire, but John Sununu is the correct name that should be listed here. Thanks for the catch!

@USPollingWatch Why does NH Republican candidate say Chris Sununu, it is John.

#Election2026 - FIRST LOOK at my official 2026 Senate Forecast. 🟥 50 🟦 50. This is unlike previous updates; these predictions factor in fundamentals and recent results in each state, meaning that if the election were tomorrow, this is what my final prediction would be. It's still a snapshot in time, but we've crossed the threshold from "speculation" into "confident predictions" on most of these races. Right now, things are incredibly close, but Republicans have the slightest of slight edge to retain the Senate, although losing three seats in the process.

#Election2026 - Nevada Governor 🟥 Lombardo ✭ - 50% 🟦 Ford - 47%

#Election2026 - Generic Ballot 🟦 Democratic Party - 42% 🟥 Republican Party - 36%

#Election2026 - Michigan Senate 🟦 El-Sayed - 47% 🟥 Rogers - 46%

#Election2026 - North Carolina Senate 🟦 Cooper - 48% 🟥 Whatley - 44% *I'll be posting individual polls for midterms starting today. Election season is officially here!

NEWS: South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appoints 🟥 Darline Graham Nordone, sister of Lindsey Graham, to his seat.

UPDATE: McConnell is recovering in the hospital from a fall and pneumonia, his office says. They also posted an image, making it his first public appearance in about a month.

🚨 MAJOR NEWS: 🟥 Sen. Lindsey Graham (SC) has died. He was 71 years old. Graham was the nominee for Senate in the state for later this year. A special primary election has been called for August 11th.

NEWS: Iran launches attacks on U.S. bases in Qatar, UAE, Jordan, and Bahrain in response to U.S. strikes earlier today. — AP

NEWS: 🟦 Rep. Ro Khanna (CA-17) was detained by Israeli settlers for over an hour during West Bank visit; he is safe now. — Reuters

Following the withdrawal of Graham Platner, polls are gone from the Maine senate model. The race has now shifted in favor of Collins, for now. Though more polls will come in which could tighten things up, it's a huge blow to Democrats. New Senate breakdown: 🟥 50 🟦 50