US Poll Watch

Big news! This account now has a website where you can find all of the data and methodology. It also has more in-depth data than is posted here. For always up to date info & in-house analysis articles, check it out! Link is also in bio. tinyurl.com/uspollwatch

#Approval - President Trump May 13, 2026 Today: 37.8% | Change since 4/13: 🔻 0.7

NEWS: Mississippi and Georgia plan to redistrict before the 2028 elections, but maps are set for this year. Mississippi had their primaries and GA will take place Tuesday. I’d expect lots of redistricting in 2027 and 2028.

REDISTRICTING: Louisiana’s new map eliminates one Democratic district while keeping the other. It must pass state Senate, which it likely will. New 2026 House balance: 🟦 225 🟥 210

Coming up next on the election calendar, it's a busy one next week. Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Oregon, and Pennsylvania will hold their primaries. Due to redistricting, some Alabama House districts will have to wait 'til August. I'll be covering all of these next week!

Midterm Matchup - Nebraska Governor 🟥 Pillen - 45.2% (+7.3) 🟦 Walz - 37.9% Rating: 🟥 Likely R

Midterm Matchup - Nebraska Senator 🟥 Ricketts - 48.6% (+4.6) 🟪 Osborn - 44.0% Rating: 🟥 Lean R

Midterm Matchup - West Virginia Senator 🟥 Capito - 68.2% (+39.1) 🟦 Anderson - 29.1% Rating: 🟥 Safe R

#Election2026 - RACE CALL Rachel Anderson has won the Democratic nomination for West Virginia senator.

#Election2026 - Cindy Burbank has won the Nebraska Democratic nomination for Senator, but has pledged to drop out and endorse independent candidate Dan Osborn.

#Election2026 - RACE CALL Jim Pillen has won the Republican nomination for Nebraska governor.

#Election2026 - RACE CALL Pete Ricketts has won the Republican nomination for Nebraska senator.

#Election2026 - RACE CALL Lynne Walz has won the Democratic nomination for Nebraska governor.

#Election2026 - 🟦 West Virginia Senate Primary The race is still too close, and Kessler is tightening on Anderson. However, her lead is still large, so I'm medium-confident in her path to victory. Nebraska polls close in 10 minutes, I'll provide updates on that as well.

NEWS: Alabama reverts to 2023 drawn map with just one Democratic leaning district. New House balance for 2026: 🟦 226 🟥 209

#Election2026 - 🟦 West Virginia Senate Primary The race is too close to call, and I'm watching this closely. Things are learning towards attorney Rachel Fetty Anderson, but things could tighten up.

#Election2026 - RACE CALL Shelley Moore Capito wins the Republican nomination for West Virginia senator.

TONIGHT: I’ll be doing live coverage of primaries in Nebraska and West Virginia. Updates will start around 8:00 PM Eastern.

After calculating margins post-redistricting, this is the most up to date and accurate prediction I can make at this point. Current House balance for 2026: 🟦 227 🟥 208 Compared to 1 month ago, Republicans have regained 8 seats. I'd expect more redistricting from both parties.

NEWS: Virginia Supreme Court strikes down voter approved redistricting referendum. GOP nets 4 House seats as we revert to the previous VA map. New House balance prediction: 🟦 225 🟥 210

NEWS: Tennessee has redistricted. New map is 9 GOP seats, 0 Dem. seats. New 2026 House Forecast: 🟦 229 🟥 206