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Uncrewed
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Uncrewed
@Uncrewed
Writer of Grand Old Primary/Uncrewed's State Legislative Election Watch. Lauren Underwood Stan. Some people may know me as Chris. DM's are open! (He/Him)
Burbank, IL Katılım Şubat 2014
754 Takip Edilen9K Takipçiler
Despite her district backing Trump by 33 points in 2020, North Dakota Democrat Alisa Mitskog was able to hold on and win a seat in #HD25 in 2022.
Mitskog narrowly edged out fellow incumbent/Republican Kathy Skroch by just 85 votes. Now, Mitskog is running again this year.
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There isn’t a world where Kotek cracks 55 percent of the vote
ed@ed_dems
there’s a decent chance that California & Oregon vote to the right of 2024 while every other states swings violently to the left Dems are gonna carry both but there’s party fatigue and not a very exciting field of candidates
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Uncrewed retweetledi
The 2026 PA-03rd Congressional Democratic Primary, a contest between DSA Representative Chris Rabb, Former Dem Senate Leader Sharif Street, and Pediatric Surgeon Ala Stanford resulted in a strong 15% win for Rep. Rabb, besting both major moderate candidates.
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Last week in #PA07, Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association President Bob Brooks was able to win the Democratic primary for this ultra-competitive district.
He won with 41% of the vote over three other candidates who had scattered support throughout the district.
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@Uncrewed Was there any notable difference between the two, issues wise or nah?
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In Pennsylvania on Tuesday, longtime Democratic incumbent Greg Vitali lost his #HD166 to Judy Trombetta.
Running on a platform of generational change and being backed by the Delaware County Democrats (over the 30+ year incumbent), Trombetta destroyed Vitali by 23 points.
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@mfpseth Actually yeah, the Black establishment Dems in south Florida are pretty pissed about it:
x.com/PollTracker202…
Politics & Poll Tracker 📡@PollTracker2024
Semafor: The Florida Legislative Black Caucus criticizes Rep. Debbie Wassermann Schultz (D-FL) for running in #FL20 "This district was established to remedy decades of racial exclusion and to ensure that Black communities have the opportunity to elect leaders who truly reflect their experiences and needs." "Congresswoman Wasserman Schultz’s decision to pursue reelection in this historically Black district, despite explicit requests from the Black community to seek candidacy in a neighboring district, is disheartening."
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@KHivehater Super PACs helped, but this is a moderate-friendly district and Panitch emphasized her Jewish ties in the race (which this district has a sizable Jewish population) and tried to question Baker’s Jewish-ness.
Honestly the fact it was this close was kind of surprising
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@Uncrewed Do you think she would have lost to the DSA Jewish trans woman, Aaron Baker, if not for Super PACs? Was that district too pro-Israsl and suburban for that to happen?
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In Georgia's #HD51, Democratic incumbent Esther Panitch was able to turn back a challenge from progressive Aaron Baker in this suburban Atlanta district.
This came after Panitch supported Trump's strikes on Iran and attacked Senators Ossoff and Warnock for not being pro-Israel.
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@KHivehater Yeah that was before she appeared at the rally I mentioned.
My guess is that she realized attacking an ultra popular Senator on an issue she was on the unpopular side of was not the best idea and decided to make nice with Ossoff
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@Uncrewed She accussed Ossoff of betraying Jews afaik.
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@KHivehater She said she was thinking of endorsing Kemp if he ran against Ossoff, but since he didn’t she’s been trying to go out of her way to show her support for Ossoff.
I believe she even appeared at his Capitol rally when he filed his re-election papers (Ossoff didn’t endorse her tho)
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@Uncrewed Panitch has also endorsed the Republican nominee against Ossoff.
"American Future has spent nearly $241,000 promoting Panitch"
atlantaciviccircle.org/2026/05/14/spo…
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@moonbeamer6 Yeah I was actually surprised that Panitch didn’t hit 60%
Roswell/Sandy Springs ain’t exactly the type of place to elect a DSA endorsed candidate like Baker, so her getting over 40% was a bit surprising
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@Uncrewed Georgia is super incumbent friendly and this is not a prog district.
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Putting an Obama poster in the background of your campaign announcement for a majority-Black district that you have no connections to is like the most shameless thing I’ve seen a politician do in a while lol
Debbie Wasserman Schultz@DWStweets
Today, I’m announcing my candidacy for Florida’s 20th congressional district. I’ll continue to use my seniority in Washington to make Broward a safer, less expensive place to live, raise a family, and retire. We cannot let Trump and DeSantis take away Broward County’s power.
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@Speeding_m Yeah I was debating moving 16 to Likely when Pinsley won the primary, but decided against it.
Find it hard to see it moving anywhere closer to the Dems unless the bottom really starts falling out
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@Uncrewed lol. I just reviewed SD40 and forgot the margin. 6 v 10 points opps.
I ended with 16/36 Likely, 6/4 Lean, 24 Tossup (pushed to Tilt D). 14 is solid D
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@Speeding_m National environment has gotten bluer and Wrightson is a good candidate. It's funny, I actually got the idea of making it a toss-up after you argued for it back when I first launched the ratings a few months ago lol
x.com/Speeding_m/sta…
Speedster M 🇺🇸@Speeding_m
@Uncrewed Can you explain SD40 to me? I get Brown is very strong but I’d still peg it at Tossup
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@Uncrewed Is 40 not Lean R? Brown by 10 in 2022 with Shapiro at top of ticket
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And that's it for this week's rating changes. I'll be back next week to make changes following the Texas runoff. If this post is anything to go by, then the Texas Republicans might need to start saying some prayers...
x.com/birenbomb/stat…
Gabby Birenbaum@birenbomb
A new memo from Deep Root Analytics, commissioned by the pro-Cornyn super PAC Texans for a Conservative Majority, finds that Ken Paxton has a 5-8% drag on Republican net margins in key U.S. House and state house districts — and sees warning signs for Rs across the map
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