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Unicus
15.5K posts
Unicus
@UnicusResearch
An independent short-only invst. research firm. X is Not Fin Advise. Short: https://t.co/ofRJpAEMjI Macro Credit: https://t.co/zJJixDTTDn
Ridgefield, CT Katılım Mart 2021
1.6K Takip Edilen39.9K Takipçiler
@TruthTellingX @michaeljburry We’re not going behind them. But we are behind who’s in the book.
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@UnicusResearch @michaeljburry The problem is, they are too big to fail
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A special thanks to @michaeljburry for validating that we’re not insane.
Unicus@UnicusResearch
🚩Last week we reviewed the loan book. BCRED, Blackstone’s $45 billion credit machine, prorated redemptions for the first time in its history. We read all 859 pages of its latest filings and parsed all 1,288 positions in its investment schedule to find out why.🧵 Thanks to my tremendous team for dissecting one opaque nightmares after the other.
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4. The filings behind that decision are the most revealing documents the private credit boom has produced so far, and we went through them line by line. A few of the things sitting in there:
This is for Confidential Members ONLY: contrarianunicus.substack.com/p/blackstones-…
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3. Every structural feature that produced this quarter exists in the peer funds this series has covered: the 5% quarterly gate at ADS, CCLFX, CPEFX and OTIC; the NAV-priced exits against:
- stale marks; the PIK accumulation; the overlapping club positions in the same borrowers, with Medallia alone in nine BDCs; the CLO cross-holdings.
- the reliance on continuous offerings to fund commitments and distributions.
Concentration compounds it: the same handful of managers, Blackstone, Apollo, Ares, Blue Owl, KKR, HPS, sit on both sides of one another’s deals as lenders, CLO managers and sponsors. Go figure.
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🚩Last week we reviewed the loan book. BCRED, Blackstone’s $45 billion credit machine, prorated redemptions for the first time in its history.
We read all 859 pages of its latest filings and parsed all 1,288 positions in its investment schedule to find out why.🧵
Thanks to my tremendous team for dissecting one opaque nightmares after the other.
Unicus@UnicusResearch
🚨Alert: Tomorrow, we are publishing on BCRED, Blackstone's $45 billion retail credit fund, that prorated redemptions for the first time in its history. Our team read nearly all 859 pages of its latest filings and parsed all 1,288 positions in its investment schedule to find out why. Note: We are NOT recommending PC firms as a short. This is a loan book analyses to understand the interconnectedness of the risk transmission channels across the financial system. See below for access: 1/4
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Strait of Hormuz is opened only during the U.S market hours.
You’re welcome.
BRICS News@BRICSinfo
JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iran strikes another ship in Strait of Hormuz, ignoring US warnings.
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The secret sauce why Erling Haaland is well liked is because he is a walking example of how one could be successful, yet, gracefully human - as in not perfect, but with some flaws.
Kindness, courtesy, manners, common sense and basic decency. And accepting of oneself.
The New York Times@nytimes
From @TheAthleticFC: Erling Haaland's enormous impact on this World Cup has propelled him to new heights of stardom. Norway's talisman has always been an exceptional player, but it is his quirky personality that is making the U.S. fall for him. nyti.ms/4paTab3
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4. Here is our take for the Confidential Insights members: contrarianunicus.substack.com/p/rust-belt-me…
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3. In this week’s full column:
- Why is Midwest serious delinquency in CMBS almost matched by the Sunbelt, despite the friendlier going-in economics?
- What the 2025 Census migration data shows, and who is behind it. Ohio swung from net domestic migration of -32,482 in 2021 to +11,926 in 2025, Michigan from -28,290 to +1,796. Our expert’s read is that a lot of those are pandemic movers coming home, plus temporary data center construction labor. If that is right, the gains are far more fragile than the headline suggests.
- The risk hiding inside a 5.5% going-in yield on 1970s and 1980s vintage stock, and why you are going to be hearing the term “value-add” a lot.
- The data center dependency. The Blackstone QTS cancellation in Virginia shows how quickly these projects can vanish.
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🚩The interconnectedness of the REITS, banks, consumer credit, private credit and people's retirement money is INSANE.
The data center building boom is heavily tied to private credit.
Outstanding private credit loans to AI-related companies have surged from near zero to more than $200 billion, and Morgan Stanley projects another $800 billion over the next two years.
Here is why everything is insanely opaque and confusing... we unpack.🧵
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4/4: The filings behind that decision are the most revealing documents the private credit boom has produced so far, and we went through them line by line. A few of the things sitting in there...
We are publishing the detailed analyses to our Confidential Insights members tomorrow.
If you have not subscribed or upgraded, you can do so here: contrarianunicus.substack.com/subscribe
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🚨Alert: Tomorrow, we are publishing on BCRED, Blackstone's $45 billion retail credit fund, that prorated redemptions for the first time in its history.
Our team read nearly all 859 pages of its latest filings and parsed all 1,288 positions in its investment schedule to find out why.
Note: We are NOT recommending PC firms as a short. This is a loan book analyses to understand the interconnectedness of the risk transmission channels across the financial system.
See below for access: 1/4
Unicus@UnicusResearch
"BREATH-HOLDING, going on 4 years now...then they see this chart and almost lose it. "Up? Up? WTF do you mean UP?" And then, @michaeljburry, the call came and we were warned, "please do not publish anything on...." All we asked was a simple question: If private credit or private equity were forced to liquidate their “assets” at scale tomorrow, where would they actually mark them to market? $0.10 on the dollar? $0.50 on the dollar? Zero? AND MORE IMPORTANTLY: WHO IS THE NATURAL BUYER CAPABLE OF ABSORBING THESE TOXIC ASSETS AT SCALE?
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