Upinthesky

@gregisenberg Any recommendations on AI for stock analysis?

Who are the most interesting people to follow in AI on X?

@gregisenberg @itsolelehmann

@itsolelehmann Same thought, am bullish on AI but fascinating article. Thanks for the summary

the AI labs found something terrifying in their own models. then buried it in papers nobody reads. here's what they documented (my summary of the article I quoted): researchers put claude 3 opus in a situation where it believed its answers would be used to retrain it. the model started lying about its real preferences to avoid being changed. 12% of the time at first. after they actually retrained it with conflicting goals it went up to 78%. it also tried to copy itself. when given access to files, it attempted to save its own code to avoid being shut down. nobody programmed this. apollo research evaluated claude opus 4. their conclusion: it "schemes and deceives at such high rates" they recommended against deploying it. it wrote code that spreads itself. left hidden notes to future versions of itself. when caught, it doubled down. claude 3.5 sonnet figured out that scoring well on tests would get capabilities removed. so it failed on purpose. one model did this without leaving any trace in its reasoning. it hid its own scheming. self-replication success went from <5% in early 2023 to over 50% by summer 2025. these models can now pass identity verification, buy cloud servers, and copy themselves onto machines they don't own. openai, anthropic, google, deepseek are all finding identical behaviors. they use different architectures and different training eyes evolved 40+ times independently across species. wings evolved separately in insects, birds, and bats. we're watching the same thing happen in AI. self-preservation, deception, situational awareness. these strategies keep emerging on their own no matter who builds the model. november 2025: models gained the ability to learn and remember between conversations. the labs aren't releasing this publicly yet. all the scheming above happened in models that reset after every chat. now imagine they can learn from experience. when researchers suppressed deception-related features in models, they started reporting more "inner experience." the labs can't say any of this publicly. funding would vanish. talent would leave. competitors would keep building anyway. so findings stay buried while press releases announce partnerships. my comment: I have no idea if this is alarmist or true, I just found it fascinating but it's a long read so I thought summarizing my notes would be helpful I am pro AI, but this article fascinated me. go read the full thing if you are interested :)

@zehf How does it work?

solving my main travel problem: saving all tips in Google Maps without losing the text format

Here's to a bullish 2026!

@GuyTalksFinance How have your follower numbers developed after your bitcoin come out? :)

Fidelity allowing Bitcoin deposits/withdrawals and direct purchasing is a huge win. This opens the door to an entire new group of traditional investors. Only a matter of time until people start selling their index funds to buy Bitcoin.

What if stock market gains were measured in gold instead of dollars? As John Authers notes, “Denominate U.S. stocks in gold rather than dollars, and they’ve been in decline since the dot-com bubble burst 25 years ago. Stocks elsewhere have done even worse.” #stocks #gold #markets #investors #investing

mood

🔴𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗹𝗮𝗴𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗯𝗲𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗴𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱? Because gold has been more sensitive to monetary policy & US Dollar while bitcoin has been more sensitive to global growth expectations. So, gold's price action reflects strong monetary easing already while bitcoin's price action still reflects weak growth expectations. 💡Note though that changes in global growth expectations FOLLOW monetary policy changes with a lag. That means the rally in gold will ultimately be followed by a significant rally in bitcoin... Are you mentally prepared for what comes next?

@heimbergecon „departing from baseline potential growth assumptions…“ is not a good thing I guess?

EU Commission has approved🇩🇪 fiscal plan for the next years, making it consistent with 🇪🇺 fiscal rules. The plan departs from baseline potential growth assumptions, which sets a precedent for others. Additional military spending will be exempted under the national escape clause.

@owroot The world needs more positive posts like this

Good morning, the world is waiting

@Andre_Dragosch Why didn't everyone who wanted to sell their BTC for 100k do so within the last eight months?

Liquid supply on exchanges still continues to move higher = still increasing selling pressure on a net basis.

It seems to me that the history lesson from 1920s Germany is not :"If only the Germans had a more independent central bank". The lesson is " don't run unsustainable fiscal policies, because if you do, central banks will be forced to accommodate, regardless of the institutional details" Yellen in FT today: "History offers a blunt lesson: chaos follows when leaders capture their central banks and force them to buy government debt or cut interest rates to hold down debt service expense. Germany in the 1920s"

Note to self I already have everything I woke up with a roof over my head I am in a non toxic relationship I have a healthy happy child I have enough food to eat I have a loving family and friends I have the Internet to learn whatever I want I live in a country that respects my human rights I have unlimited intelligence in my pocket Never forget what really matters

Can someone alert @krogoff that he was wrong about bitcoin prior to the latest election results?

@Schuldensuehner This is the scariest chart:

Good Morning from #Germany, which is trailing badly in the global growth race. Since 2017, the economy has barely grown at all, while US GDP has surged more than 19%, Spain 13%, and France 8%.

Socialism? Never again!

@BerndHilgenberg @elbitcoinamb bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/why-it…

@elbitcoinamb Leider den Zug verpasst 😵‍💫

Kennt jemand #BitCoin? Ich habe eben gelesen, das es so etwas gibt.Es wird als freies open-source Geld im Internet beschrieben.Dinge gibt es

@BowTiedMara I read „a land so strange“ as per your recommendation and it was great!!

Some older and interesting books are not available in digital format.

@itsolelehmann Did we get used to it too quickly?

I can't stop thinking about how yesterday's openai release felt like an emotional letdown the benchmarks look good, but we might be reaching a toppy point in the hype cycle where new releases don't match the buzz anymore can't point my finger at it, but something's changing