Rob Shears

The secret sauce of the best investors is they know when they have a 1 inch putt and when they have a 3 foot putt and they size accordingly.

@darvas365 @claudedwalker Go get a mac mini, download Openclaw, run some agents and you will change your mind. This is not Y2K. This is $5000 AI replacing $100,000 workers.

@ValorWealth @claudedwalker The AI economic doomsday story is starting to give me Y2K vibes.

@forager_gareth I had a delivery issue. Money didn’t get to my account. Took quite a while to sort it. Price is always reasonable.

@ValorWealth Oh interesting - unreliable on price or something to do with delivery?

My advice, get Wise. Use it for travel needs, use it for overseas-sourced purchases (even if "priced" in AUD, as you'll often get stung for conversion anyway). As both a proselytising user and a shareholder, I'm biased. But not for no reason.

news.com.au/technology/inn… #elChato

@francomascaro I listened to his podcasts. Interesting, but I still think he is looking at last years models and projecting forward, rather than thinking about future capabilities (which will be many multiples better than today by mid next year).

@ValorWealth Agree Don’t discard the involvement of humans in this new Intelligence Infrastructure Loop, and the spectre of “The Unknown Unknown”. Try reconciling the reality of both these videos being true… youtu.be/pSgy2P2q790?si… youtu.be/awV2kJzh8zk?si…

Almost all AI economic projections are using AI capabilities of last year rather than think about the most likely scenario which is that Claude 5 and then Claude 6 will change the world much faster than these non-computer scientists are predicting.

@claudedwalker @HinataMotivates When you run through the four scenarios the WEF has laid out. (Worth doing). The probabilities of each become quite clear when you think of the capabilities of Claude 6 (Or Gemini 5, or ChatGPT 7). If you are looking in the rear view mirror, you will likely miss whats coming.

@claudedwalker @HinataMotivates I thought about this, however the incentives are the other way around. There is no incentive for someone building the AI to tell everyone that unemployment is going to 10-20%. The incentive is to tell everyone it will be fine and not worry.

Former Goldman Sachs executive: Knowledge is now worth zero with AI.

@JackFarley96 And both of these are shuffling deck chairs on the titanic compared to AI job losses over the next 5 years.

In my view, markets are underestimating systemic risks of Middle East War and overestimating systemics risks of private credit

@claudedwalker Those farming moved to building tractors, selling tractors, selling tractor insurance, fixing tractors. AI displaces jobs but is better at most of the new jobs. This is fundamentally different to previous tech revolutions because the new alien race will be better at most jobs.

@lydiadepillis If Alphabet or Anthropic get to AGI first, this could be problematic for some of these companies.

Hell of a graphic from Morgan Stanley

@NestBetter Gemini gets to AGI first

What's the best bear argument for $MSFT?

@claudedwalker I agree that agriculture has been the largest change until now, however it took 50 years. This is an alien race which is going to be much smarter than the median human and will take 5 years to displace. That makes it the most disruptive economic change in history.

@claudedwalker I think the displacement starts in earnest in the next 12 months. I don’t think it bottoms in the next 12 months. AI will continue to get smarter each year. Humans are not getting smarter. (I’d argue many are getting dumber).

#AI and #robotics disruption is the largest economic change in human history. So few understand this.

AI native companies with materially lower costs will drive down services fees (accounting, legal, finance). Brownfield job losses are the result of this. A company with 10% profit margin and loses 5% revenues restructures in panic faster than most expect. This will be the norm.