JBD

Best evidence we aren't topping here... In my career (I'm officially an adult as I started full time in 07' & 2010 on my own) I've never seen a market top in ANY meaningful way with sentiment that looks like this. Normally this would suggest we have a way to go but more to the point sentiment to me is more about mood/environment (which can get WAY out of whack) than a timing signal. It tells me that most are doubting this rally still here and that macro stuff still has a lot of managers sitting on their hands.

In the twenty months leading up to the March 2000 peak: • Nasdaq 100: +290% • Berkshire Hathaway: -45% The greatest investor of all time underperformed the most exciting index of his generation by 335 percentage points in less than two years. Many sold Berkshire to buy tech. You know how the story ended. The Nasdaq crashed 80%. Berkshire recovered and kept compounding. By 2004, Berkshire was up 430% from the start of that period. The Nasdaq was up 270%. Buffett didn't change. The crowd did. The crowd lost.

Hedge funds are all-in on semiconductor stocks: Semiconductor and semiconductor equipment stocks now account for 19% of total global hedge fund market exposure, the highest on record. This percentage has more than DOUBLED since the start of 2026. By comparison, semiconductor stocks represented less than 2% of global hedge fund exposure during the 2022 bear market. This comes as the Semiconductor index, $SOX, has rallied +405% over this period. To put this into perspective, software and services stocks now account for ~2% of hedge fund portfolios. This metric has declined -10 percentage points over the last 4 years. Hedge funds are extremely bullish on chip stocks.