Value Guru

During April, $WIX repurchased $1.6 billion of its own stock at $92 per share. Following a 30%+ plunge after earnings, the stock is now trading at $52.50. Brutal.

$WIX down over 30% today... trading at $52.50/share.

@porta253 I never said the stock was going back to that multiple, but the fact is that is traded at that multiple just a couple of years ago when the long-term growth story looked much cleaner than it does today.

@ValueGuruu At a 0.4 P/B scenario: Mcap would be $772M, P/E 3.3, and the share price $1.75. Trading at 0.4 P/B would imply that the market expects imminent bankruptcy or sustained, heavy losses for the bank.

At one point in 2023, $INTR traded at just 0.4x book value. Even after falling 40% from its highs, the stock still trades at 1.4x book value. There's more downside left, especially since it's clear the company won't be able to achieve its 60-30-30 goal by the end of 2027.

@porta253 $INTR's growth in Brazil is slowing, its international expansion efforts have been deeply underwhelming, and, more importantly, it's clear that its 60-30-30 plan won't be achieved by the end of 2027. This will likely cause analysts to revise their expectations downward.

@ValueGuruu Sure, besides the 76% more users, 153% higher net revenue, and a doubled loan portfolio, more or less.

Private market valuations function like a Ponzi scheme.

@mvcinvesting I believe LTM FCF was approximately $550 million, of which $240 million was stock-based compensation. It starts getting interesting at $50/share.

My new position is $WIX. This might be controversial, but I think it’s one of the most asymmetric opportunities in the market right now. When you buy $WIX, you’re effectively buying two businesses: Wix and Base44, and that changes the story. Here’s a summary of the thesis: 👇🏻 For less than $5B, you’re buying... 1) The core Wix business It generates >$600M in annual FCF with ~30% margins, and there’s still room for additional operating leverage. Many investors believe Vibe Coding will disrupt Wix. I think that view misses a key point: Wix is deeply embedded across millions of SMBs, and most of these are happy to pay a few hundred extra dollars per year to avoid the friction of switching platforms. More importantly, Wix isn’t ignoring the shift. The company has already started integrating AI and Vibe Coding into its platform with the launch of Wix Harmony. Management’s confidence seems high, they’re even returning to the Super Bowl for the first time in six years to promote this new product. 2) Base44 Base44 is one of the fastest-growing Vibe Coding platforms in the market (according to Similarweb's data). $WIX acquired Base44 in June 2025 for $80M. In less than six months, ARR grew from ~$3M to >$50M. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it exit 2026 at ~$200M in ARR. For context, here’s how its peers are valued in the private markets: - Lovable recently raised at a $6.6B valuation (~30x ARR), up from $1.8B in July 2025 - Replit is reportedly in talks to raise at $9B (>30x ARR), up from $3B in September 2025 Even applying a lower ARR multiple, Base44 alone could be worth close to $WIX's current market cap by the end of this year. That’s where the mispricing is, and that’s why I’m accumulating shares. It’s not about Wix or Base44 being clear leaders in their segments, it’s about the market misunderstanding the assets tied to the stock. The downside seems limited, and $WIX is taking advantage of the current SaaS selloff to accelerate buybacks. I’ve removed the paywall from my Deep Dive, published about two weeks ago. You can read it here: 🔗 mvcinvesting.substack.com/p/my-next-big-… NFA.

@pernasresearch It's the cheapest growth-adjusted stock in the sector, with a massive growth runway. It's ahead of competitors in AI and is successfully moving from a pure endpoint security provider toward a unified security platform.

@ValueGuruu Agreed. Why do you like $S?

Cybersecurity companies have an aggregate market cap of ~$650B. AI eventually will 10x code, complexity, and exploits. What is the argument that cybersecurity isn’t a 10x category? Feels structurally like defense spending vs GDP

@pernasresearch Congrats on the 2025 performance, hopefully 2026 will be as good (or better)!

Pernas Research Q4 Investment Letter posted: pernasresearch.com/quarterly/2025…

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin said AI has “re-empowered” tech departments across businesses, but the idea that 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs will disappear in 5 years is “hype,” pushed by industry leader to help justify billions in data center spending.

By the time everyone calls it a great business the exceptional returns are usually in the rearview. The time to buy is when a company is misunderstood, undiscovered and under-appreciated.

Worth a read

$TTD fell another ~35% since this tweet.

@adam__xyz It feels like a mandatory purchase now that it's only trading at an LTM EV/Sales multiple of 16.9x? 😂

figma trading at 1/4 of its IPO price, feel liks a mandatory buy, can someone explain what happened here

@LuisVSanchez777 There’s no reason to own $WISE instead of $RELY at these levels.

$WISE is in a 25%> drawdown. What are the best bear arguments here?

@TheTimeInvestor @iancassel If you buy a stock that’s down 90% from ATH and it doubles, it’s still down 80% from ATH. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good investment for you.

Drops 10% more and you get a profile where 1/3 of companies "never" return to their ATH, while the remaining 2/3 take about 2.3 years on average. Drops 10% more and almost half of companies "never" come back, while the other half need roughly 3.1 years. Drops 20% more, and only 16% of companies ever return to their ATH, with an average recovery time of 6.7 years. And through all of this, never forget the opportunity cost.

A stock drops 25% it's an "opportunity" Drops 10% more you call CEO to verify the thesis and buy more Drops 10% more you get annoyed insiders aren't buying Drops 10% more you sell your stock to the investors that are going to make money on the stock

@dirtykickz1 I believe the stock will trade above $20 per share by the end of 2026. I’m not concerned about the dual class structure.

@ValueGuruu Do you have a PT? And what’s your stance on the dual class structure of $SPT?

In this thread, I’m going to explain why I believe that $SPT has the most attractive risk-reward ratio in the entire market right now. (1/15)

@stoic_point I've been investing in SaaS stocks for over 10 years and have never seen a company with these characteristics trade at such a low multiple: double-digit revenue growth, rapidly improving margins, a net cash position, and around 50% of revenue coming from enterprise customers.

@stoic_point $SPT is expected to deliver double the revenue growth over the next two years. Meanwhile, its LTM EV/Sales multiple is 25% lower than $CXM, and its LTM P/S ratio is 40% lower. I believe $SPT has a much more attractive risk-reward ratio from these levels.