🔱 VedicNIFTY.in 🔱@VedicNifty
Since the last Lok Sabha elections I am seeing a constant debate on social media about BJP's future and whether any kind of agitation or anger by any group will defeat BJP govt.
My prediction, based on basic rational thinking, is that BJP will not be going anywhere for the next 15-20 years, no matter how bad they perform or how much anger exists.
And you won’t like the reasons:
1. I am a very strong believer of the fact that no agitation or protests can sustain organically. Every protest need funding:
To prolong the agitation on streets.
To bribe local police or officers to allow silently.
To pay the media and newspapers to get noticed in the mainstream.
To get heard by govt with the help of some minister etc.
All of this needs money, and a central organization to manage all this in sync.
NO PROTEST in the world brings any change organically until someone funds it.
And BJP has built a strong foundation of laws and surveillance to identify and cut source of funding of any protest. So any protest, will not be able to sustain and dent too much ever.
For eg. Farmers protest was the biggest and most efficiently well organised protests in indian history, but govt was quick to identify the external funding angle, hence they didnt use muscle as that funding was by Canadian and US govt directly, to fire up Khalistan issue by forcing indian govt to use force on protestors.
If BJP could nullify that level of protests with ease, i doubt there will be any other protest which will make any dent on bjp.
No one is going to come on streets now anymore.
2. I strongly believe that Governments in democracies are not elected only by people. There is always an external angle. Foreign nations help shape narratives, fund ecosystems, and influence perception using money, intel and think tanks.
Current BJP govt does not have very bad relations with any influential country. US was the last one which pushed narrative last elections and helped Congress through WhatsApp, while BJP controlled most other platforms. WhatsApp had no censorship and allowed fake AI videos against BJP to spread widely.
That happened because before 2024 BJP was not aligning with US expectations. Since then govt has adjusted and avoided friction, which will likely continue till 2029 and 2034.
By then BJP will build a strong surveillance system to control anti-BJP narratives.
So I don’t care who is protesting or how much.
3. BJP is very good at turning protests into consolidation of the opposite side. Any agitation becomes an opportunity.
In Farmers protest they lost a chunk of Punjab Sikh and farmer votes, but by 2024 they gained 19-20% vote share in other segments. They only need 10-12% more to win many constituencies.
This pattern is visible everywhere.
4. This is the most important factor which nobody notices. BJP has won 3 terms without actually using the muscle and tactics to curb opposition voices like congress used to do. Those who have seen congress terms can understand it very well, and most of them say it vocally that bjp is very lenient and soft on congress propaganda machinery. And thats actually an achievement that bjp has won three terms already by not using the full potential of powers at their disposal. No president rule in any state, no voter list fraud like congress used to do. Infact bjp is doing SIR just now, after 3 terms. Imagine how laid back they used to be till now.
Only one time SIR is going to eliminate 3-4% anti bjp votes from records and that is enough to win 2029 comfortably.
Then they will use all other muscle and power projection in coming terms to secure 2 more terms atleast.
Hence no matter what happens, if bjp performs good or not, they remain loyal to their core vote bank or not, They are not going to national elections atleast next 3 terms, i can bet on it.
They know how to win elections and they will do whatever it takes to win national elections.
