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Every cycle feels different, but it never is.
You make real money on paper and think it’s permanent. Then you round-trip it and swear you’re done forever.
You then miss the early part of the next cycle because of PTSD. You buy back some only after it doubles “just to be safe.” You get fully loaded by the mid-cycle, the tingly feeling is back. You promise yourself this time you’ve learned a thing or two and will be smart and reasonable this time.
Then the gains start and you take the bait, you get emotional, fall in love, and go searching for narratives to latch too. The hucksters are back too in full force selling you a dream, you ignore their last cycle grift, and fall for their new shiny paper. A faster path to your dream. You start regurgitating all their talking points, welcome to the club.
You start adding leverage, this is easy, you’re going to be super-yacht rich. You buy garbage tokens and projects, telling yourself they figured out some money glitch. It’s a whole new paradigm. You start to project where you’re going to be just one year out at this rate and say that’s too long, let’s go harder. And then the rugs begin to get pulled.
You’re quickly down 50% on a leveraged/speculative pile of poop, that you fear selling at such a “discount”. What about the dream. Paralysis becomes so great you can’t even action an exit over your better thoughts.
And not before long, you’re back to the beginning.
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I know this is only a subset of people entirely, more so in crypto, but I think we all to some level or extent, fall for the above. I do too!
So not intended to throw shade on people (except the hucksters), but a reminder that a balance between risk and preservation is paramount, but more importantly when to be balanced between the two at various stages of the cycle. Knowing where we are in the cycle requires being as unemotional and agnostic to your positions as possible. Once money becomes so personal, rational judgement is lost.
As for where we are now. Stocks haven’t broken down broadly, although the cracks are forming. We’re in a bull trend still, but also in that “be mindful” stage, and dips are probably not opportunities anymore.
For crypto, the carnage is huge, but can get so much worse. We’re way past the get out stage, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get out to live another day. If you’re sitting on stuff with paralysis, free yourself of this burden and dump it. A worthless token isn’t cheap because it's down 60%.
This does not apply to spot bitcoin, you’re not selling that 44% off highs, even expecting much deeper levels to come in 2026.
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The Walk for Peace will proceed regardless of the weather.
Snow is headed for Raleigh, North Carolina around the same time the monks are expected to arrive, and it could turn into a pretty large weather event, but their support team has made one thing clear: the Walk for Peace will proceed regardless of the weather.

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The biggest challenge in trading is being motivated enough to keep looking, but disciplined enough to rarely touch.
The area of maximum risk rewards the constant clickers while the area of maximum opportunity rewards the careful pickers.
On a personal level, as an old cat watching the game he loved change so drastically it even adds to the complexity of the flexibility required to win.
I won't go deep and bore you with my critiques on the current onchain environment, the draining fee structure, deployer culture and the saturated slop, but I will say that in my mind it's still clear that we are entering the general area of maximum opportunity.
And don't be fooled, there is no difference in net worth - me and your favorite CT nerds are just like anyone else, sitting in TG/Discord chats being constantly offered delightful sub 100k coins or high leverage flip opportunities.
So here I am, writing to you and to myself a reminder - the checklist Im using before deciding to buy anything these days, I call it the Triangle of Sadness:
1. The Shiny Thing. Uncharted territories yield great returns - as imagination is the best fuel of overvaluation, and men are naturally optimistic. Example: 402x meta.
2. Solving a problem dramatically better than competition. Pretty straightforward but often hardest to catch as it requires deep understanding of what is out there, its limitations and weaknesses. @Lighter_xyz is a great example.
3. "Criminal activity." A phrase many love to use in relation to anything going up without them, in reality - a situation where team/founders have the benefit of others victory on the short term for their long term plan. Best example is @Aster_DEX (0 real traders on the platform and an obvious Binance washer yet delivered a liquid 20x).
When you see one of these in the time ahead, slam it and take maximum risk.
The less you click, the clearer and easier they are to identify. You have more time to research, and you are less fatigued emotionally and spiritually from 14 year old terrorists in your orderbooks all day.
When I was younger I thought that being greedy when others are fearful is a skill, but as I grow I realized its more of a privilege, obtained by having ammo when things get boring, which is a result of being careful when others are clicking.

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