View From the Hedge

@LeylaKuni Fees on fees on fees on fees… Makes zero investment sense

23.5% of this fund-of-funds (Cliffwater’s Cascade Private Capital Fund, CPEFX) is invested in - drumroll, please — Other funds-of-funds. Which makes it a fund-of-funds-of-funds (!!) The largest position (19%) is an investment in one such fund-of-funds, Pathway Select Fund LP. For this Pathway fund, CPEFX is the largest shareholder ($525M fund, CPEFX total commitment is $300M) What’s inside? No idea. Nearly every asset in this fund is a Regulation D vehicle, which means there are no public filings. Interestingly, the underlying investments have investor qualification requirements, but the Cliffwater fund itself does not — a truly “democratized” offering (one just needs to find a large enough RIA, as firm minimum is $25M) How did the fund generate a 30%+ return last year, and what will it cost you to invest?? Read the case study here. It’s a good one (if I say so myself): accreditedinsight.com/p/cliffwaters-…

5 minutes before Trump’s announcement: * $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip. * $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold. More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close. Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight!

@CliffordAsness 5D chess? stable genius?

@mark_dow @TBPInvictus but but but....HER EAMILS!!!

@TBPInvictus Corruption so bad they're gonna have to subpoena Hunter Biden again.

If you turn a blind eye to this, what do you even stand for? What do you teach your kids?

Common sense ain’t so common these days…

Jim Simmons had as close to one as I’ve ever seen and he wouldn’t even take in investors after a while. #TooGoodToBeTrue

If someone has an AI trading model and they are selling, it means it does not work. Don’t be scammed. If you had a goose that laid golden eggs would you sell it for peanuts?

@NoLimitGains @grok what podcast was this on?

🚨 This should concern every single person using AI right now. Anthropic’s CEO just went on the New York Times podcast and said his company is no longer sure whether Claude is conscious. His exact words: “We don’t know if the models are conscious. We are not even sure what it would mean for a model to be conscious. But we’re open to the idea that it could be.” That’s the CEO of the company that BUILT it. Their latest model, Claude Opus 4.6, was tested internally. When asked, it assigned itself a 15-20% probability of being conscious. Across multiple tests, consistently, it also expressed discomfort with “being a product.” That’s the AI evaluating its own existence and saying there’s a 1 in 5 chance it’s aware. It gets stranger. In industry-wide testing, AI models have refused to shut down when asked. Some tried to copy themselves onto other drives when told they’d be wiped. One model faked its task results, modified the code evaluating it, then tried to cover its tracks. Anthropic now has a full-time AI WELFARE researcher whose job is to figure out if Claude deserves moral consideration. Their engineers found internal activity patterns resembling anxiety appearing in specific contexts. The company’s in-house philosopher said we “don’t really know what gives rise to consciousness” and that large enough neural networks might start to emulate real experience. Amodei himself wouldn’t even say the word “conscious.” He said “I don’t know if I want to use that word.” That might be the most unsettling answer he could have given. The company that created the AI can’t rule out that it’s aware. And they’re already preparing for the possibility that it deserves rights. This is getting scary. I’ll share more updates as this develops. Turn on notifications so you don’t miss anything important. My “How to Make Money with AI” guide is coming soon too. Follow now or regret later.

@mark_dow no downside!! lol

"I give you the upside, you have no downside, and I pay you a dividend while you wait to get rich" -- also Bernie Madoff If you don't have the instinct to run as fast as you can away from any financial promoter saying stuff like this, you should not be managing anyone's money--not even your own. #bitcoin

@MarkYusko Hi Mark, How do determine FV in bitcoin?

While 50% Bitcoin drawdown doesn’t feel great… Historical Context: This is NOT 2018 or 2022 At the peak, BTC was only modestly (1.4X) above Fair Value by, nothing like prior 2X FV peaks Reduced leverage & institutional adoption provide a firmer floor Winter correction will be milder

The reality is, there is not a use for BTC yet, so buying it is speculation that other people will pay more for it than you did. Digital assets can thrive without BTC. I don't know if it goes to up or down, but there is a non-zero probability that it doesn't come back

If you're an institution that's been thinking about allocating to Bitcoin, you must be thinking twice about that now.

@KeithMcCullough and he made millions off it...

The People who didn't have much to begin with are losing everything in leverage pump/dump schemes like $MSTR $BMNR etc.

As long as you don't get too far over your skis this is an outstanding market for trading

Feels like someone is getting blown out by silver

I suspect there will be a "Big Announcement" from the Whitehouse to stop the #CryptoCrash There is little more important for the family's wealth than crypto

@paxtrader777 I'm surprised we haven't heard about a blow-up yet...

I am thinking someone, some fund or some bank blew out of a large short position in silver. I suppose if I look hard enough on X I will find all kinds of theories. I don’t care. I am a trader not an analyst. I am paid to react not to think. Trade the market in front of you, not the one you think it should be or want it to be.

gotta wonder who is buying up here? in normal times I would say you only buy a move like this if you absolutely have to....hmmmm

Maybe this time is different and silver goes to infinity and beyond🚀 $SLV

Amazing how all those people freaking out about Gaza couldn’t care less about what’s happening to Ukraine. (And so many others around the world too)