The Straight Road

@KobeissiLetter Wasn't the Iranian Regime supposed to be the fanatical religious group? The narrative is only ever what it needs to be to sell the actions.

BREAKING: President Trump says Iran has 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz or "all hell will reign down on Iran." "Remember when I gave Iran ten days to make a deal... time is running out," Trump says.

@KobeissiLetter There are plenty of places he could focus on without ever leaving D.C. There's plenty he could find without ever leaving the White House.

BREAKING: President Trump appoints JD Vance as the “Fraud Czar.”

@KobeissiLetter This situation likely has to just play itself out, and he likely knows this as there is no easy exit from Iran. The true reversal comes after the conclusion when more tools become available. This is midterm year - if his actions are puzzling now, don't lose sight of that fact.

Tonight's situation is incredibly puzzling. In President Trump's address to the nation just now, he effectively reread many of his recent social media posts out loud. Between threatening Iran's power plants, saying the Iran War would last 2-3 more weeks, and calling out NATO, there was nothing new. Yet, the market is now trading like the Iran War is ramping up for another month-long escalation. Why? Because he didn't explicitly de-escalate. Ironically, President Trump's address to the nation just now has imposed more pressure on the US through the market's reaction. The market, which was finally beginning to show some signs of calming, is now highly agitated, with US oil prices back to $104/barrel, stocks down sharply, and the bond market melting down again. Ironically, President Trump is now back to solving the problem he fixed earlier this week: How will he contain the market?

@StealthQE4 How is Hormuz even an issue if Iran has no Navy? Oh, right... that's false too. The White House has one media strategy: "Repeat lies until they are accepted as truth."

Serious question: How is Iran destroyed if they still control the Strait of Hormuz? Such a joke.

@AshCrypto When prices are down due to no action of his, it's all his victories. When prices rise directly because of his actions, the cause is everyone else. Deny everything, never stop attacking, and repeat the lies until they become accepted as truth.

🇺🇸 Full Summary of President Trump’s address to the nation on the Iran war. Here is everything that matters. 1. Iran's navy is completely destroyed. Air force in ruins. Most of their leaders are dead. Missile capability dramatically reduced. 2. War is NOT over. Trump extended the operation by another two to three weeks. Markets expecting a deal will need to reprice this. 3. Trump threatened to withdraw the US from NATO. His reason. Allies refused to help open the Strait of Hormuz. 4. Trump claimed Iran's president requested a ceasefire. Iran's foreign minister called that claim false and baseless within hours. 5. Trump blamed Iran entirely for $4 gas at the pump. Called it the result of Iranian terror attacks on oil tankers. 6. 35 countries signed a statement committing to restore maritime security in Hormuz. UK is hosting a diplomatic conference on the issue. Meanwhile WTI oil jump 5% , $98 to $103.

@KobeissiLetter If the market was expecting de-escalation, the market hasn't been paying attention to Trump's behavioral patterns. The main objectives have not yet been achieved, whatever the statements present. Until they are, threats and browbeating will only continue to escalate.

The entire market expected President Trump to de-escalate the Iran War. That did not happen. Minutes later, the 10Y Note Yield is back on its way to 4.40%+. We expect significant volatility ahead.

@KobeissiLetter Wasn't this Administration spending a large amount of time in 2025 claiming credit for low gas prices resulting from a global glut it didn't cause? Seems they're silent on the matter now. Time to claim credit; promises made, promises kept, right?

BREAKING: US gas prices officially surge above $4.00 per gallon for the first time since 2022.

As we identified later last year, the Administration has been charting a path toward global oil control and dominance from the beginning. Actions in Ukraine were the first signals, Venezuela the next, and now Iran. All the rhetoric is a weak cover for what the true objective is.

PRESIDENT TRUMP: “All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”

@KobeissiLetter So, if the regime does not fold, the U.S. will commit war crimes. That does fit the playbook fairly well.

BREAKING: President Trump says the US is in “serious discussions with a new and more reasonable regime to end our military operations in Iran.” Trump also says that if a deal is not made, the US will “blow up and completely obliterate all of their electric generating plants, oil wells, Kharg Island, and possibly all desalinization plants.”

The Fall of Fort Eben-Emael (1940) Operation Storm-333 (1979) The Capture of Mexico City (1521) Invasion of Denmark (1940) Operation Neptune Spear (2011) The Bruneval Raid (1942) The Seizure of the Gennep Bridge (1940) Operation Chromite: The Inchon Landing (1950) The "Motti" Tactics of the Winter War (1939) 2003 U.S. Invasion of Iraq (Decapitation Phase) All clear examples of small forces taking key points or performing precision tactics that led to the collapse of either large swaths of opponents or entire military structures. But sure. History must be the one that's wrong and naive.

@Vingilot542 @KobeissiLetter Wrong! Very naive.

BREAKING: The US now has over 50,000 troops deployed in the Middle East, per NYT. "At almost a third of the size of the continental US, Iran has 93 million people. Taking, let alone holding, a deeply complex country of its size and complexity and weaponry with 50,000 troops is not doable," NYT says.

@KobeissiLetter If he would have paid those salaries, it couldn't continue to be the Democrats' fault they aren't getting paid. Although, refusing it looks like they got played. Something could have been done and wasn't, so now the fingers will start pointing.

BREAKING: The White House has rejected Elon Musk’s offer to cover TSA agents’ salary during the ongoing funding lapse, per CBS News.

@KobeissiLetter They figured out the tactic. Time for a new play. This one was used much more than twice.

BREAKING: Iranian officials have told mediators that they have now been tricked twice by President Trump and "we don't want to be fooled again," per Axios. In the two previous rounds of talks with Iran, Trump "green lit" surprise attacks while claiming to be seeking a deal.

@KobeissiLetter We've already seen how much impact a dropping market can have on Trump's activities. Expect some sort of response in the coming days or weeks to attempt to reverse the sentiment. And don't forget midterms, the dial is only at 11, and it can be cranked farther.

BREAKING: The S&P 500 extends losses to over -2% on the day, erasing -$1.1 trillion in market cap.

@KobeissiLetter When panic is highest, start looking for deals. Several strong players are beginning to look appealing.

BREAKING: The S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, and the Nasdaq 100 ETF, $QQQ, have seen combined outflows of -$64 billion over the last 3 months, the most on record. This marks a sharp reversal from +$50 billion in 3-month inflows posted in November. This is also almost DOUBLE the previous decade high set in 2018. Not even the 2020 pandemic and the March-April 2025 sell-off saw such significant outflows. As a % of assets under management, the 3-month outflow is up to -5%, the biggest since Q1 2023. By comparison, the largest percentage outflow over the last decade was -8% in April 2018. Investors are have rushed to the sidelines.

Russia will continue to profit from rising oil prices, but they are losing customers. The EU is already cutting imports of Russian natural gas and oil over the next two years to zero. The only reliable large buyer now is China, and that's the true target of the administration. The longer the conflict with Ukraine drags on, the larger the impact on Russia's refining and exporting capabilities will become. If Iran can't load the tankers for export, it drastically cuts the oil revenue they receive. Economic pressure of that scale is enough leverage to put a stranglehold on the regime and "negotiate" favorable terms for the U.S.

@Vingilot542 @KobeissiLetter You're leaving Russia out of this? They'll be a big winner in the long term. Kharg Island loads tankers, it doesn't produce oil.

This is absolutely insane: The world is quite literally facing what appears to be the largest energy crisis in history. US crude oil futures are now trading at a $20+/barrel DISCOUNT to Brent, also one of the largest on record. As the US increases production and taps into reserves, the EU is facing a full out energy crisis. European natural gas prices are up another +30% today and physical crude oil prices in Oman and elsewhere are trading at $150+/barrel. In other words, the gap between Oman and US prices now stands at ~70%, or ~$70+ per barrel. It has become so bad for Europe that the market is now pricing-in 2 interest rate HIKES in 2026, even as the US removes sanctions on Russian oil. US rate cuts in 2026 are almost entirely priced-out as a result with Core PPI inflation on PRE-WAR data rising to its highest since February 2023. The entire global economy just took a complete 180 degree turn in 3 weeks. The next few months are going to be historic.

@PatrickHenry7z @KobeissiLetter After which he responded by implementing new global 10% tariffs.

@Vingilot542 @KobeissiLetter The tariffs were ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court and have to be returned. Try to keep up.

BREAKING: The US Pentagon has asked the White House to approve a more than $200 billion request to Congress to fund the war in Iran, per the Washington Post. Details include: 1. The proposal would seek to "urgently" increase production of critical weaponry expended 2. Current costs of the war are nearing $30 billion in 3 weeks 3. Some White House officials do not think the Pentagon’s request has a "realistic shot" of being approved in Congress 4. It remains unclear how much the White House will ultimately ask congressional lawmakers to approve The funding request is "likely to be a test of the war’s popularity."

This is a large part of the goal. Venezuela was an opportunity for the U.S. to cut off oil to China and secure a major hub. Iran functions the exact same way, just on a larger scale. The Administration is working to set up monopolistic control and pricing power over oil globally.