Bottom line. Inflation is cooling, but still too high along with the level of price. The cooling of inflation reinforces our view that the Fed can be done w/rate hikes and move to the sidelines. Don’t hold your breath for signals of a cut in rates when the Fed provides its forecast on rates in December. Powell is worried about the Treasury bond market front-running the Fed on rate cuts and undoing progress it makes on inflation. We still expect the first cut in rates in June. The descent on rates will be much more gradual than the ascent.
CPI inflation was unchanged on a month-to-month basis in Oct and slowing on a year-over-year basis to a 3.2% rate. That marks the first deceleration on a year-over year basis since June. The slowdown in the annual pace of inflation in June 2023 was skewed by the peak in inflation we experienced in June 2022.
A gain in food prices was more than offset by a sharp drop in energy prices. Prices at the gas pump alone plummeted 5% during the month, starting to reverse the gains we have seen since June.
@CraigLavazza@LizYoungStrat Haha. Powell and the independent FED, whether lucky or good, deserve much credit for raising rates to around 5 %, and taking inflation down over the last year and wages are positive. Imagine if we got rid of the independent FED and gave monetary to Congress. Nightmare.
@LizYoungStrat Powell et all are empty suits at this point. Instead of focusing on “messaging” they really should just focus on the data. This is the problem when Powell, by his own admission, is more concerned about how “history” will judge him than the actual prevailing conditions
Oct CPI below consensus at 3.2% y/y. Still above target and Fed not likely to declare victory yet, but this print is a welcome one. The worry will be too much financial condition loosening done by markets on the heels of this. Messaging might need to remain hawkish.
@IanJaeger29 Someone that lead for all Americans. I am a Republican but I have temporarily recoiled as my party is too much about politics right now and I need to see a Republican nominee that I trust. It is not Trump or DeSantis. We're losing our way.
Military-age, single adult men are coming across our southern border from Iran, Syria, Pakistan, and West Africa en mass.
Biden’s weak border policies are a national security crisis.
@IanJaeger29 Leadership across the aisle and getting things done for his constituents. Light years ahead of the party-first junk our GOP party has become.
🚨JUST IN: Rumor is some of the Democrats are trying to get some moderate Republicans to join them to vote for Hakeem Jeffries.
Would you support a Speaker Jeffries?
@IanJaeger29 A divider, not a uniter. Asca Republican, I support a temporary change until the end of November giving temporary House leader McHenry the power to legislate on critical decisions such as Israel, Ukraine, and keeping our government open.
@IanJaeger29 And Trump can't beat this guy? Our GOP Congress members are really not very smart throwing Trump under the bus and throwing their weight behind someone that can win like a Pence or Christie.
New ABC Poll for Joe Biden:
26% approval on immigration/border security
29% approval on inflation
32% approval on gun violence
33% approval on crime
33% approval on Iran
36% approval on the economy
39% approval on climate change
39% approval on abortion
41% approval on Ukraine/Russia war
41% approval on the Israel/Palestine war
Thoughts?
I served with Jim Jordan. He & I were friends. He shouldn’t be Speaker. He’s a divider. Always has been. And for those who say Jim Jordan has changed, really? Less than 3 yrs ago, he was helping Trump try to overthrow an American election, and less than 2 yrs ago, he was defying a subpoena. He hasn’t changed.
@Ethiosalem@WalshFreedom Biden is less risk to our democracy, rule of law, and to International peace.
Trump is the greater risk as we have seen with his election-stealing plots alone as proof.
Don't get me wrong, Biden cannot lead our country forward either but he represents less downside risk.
Just as I was so damn thankful that Joe Biden, and not Donald Trump, was President when Putin invaded Ukraine, I am equally thankful that Biden, and not Trump, is President now, when Hamas invaded Israel.
Ukraine, Israel, the United States, & the free world should be thankful that Biden, and not Trump, is President right now.
@IanJaeger29 Yes, over Trump, DeSantis, and Biden.
He's like the younger version of Biden but to center right and he would uphold our democracy for 4 more years until my party (GOP) can get a true leader with integrity that can solve our nation's most vexing problems.