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Tim
38.9K posts
Tim
@VolaTim
Developing Investors with @fink_money | “Anything can happen and it probably will” | Everything’s Gambling | Risk Ain’t a Dirty Word
Spain Katılım Temmuz 2016
2K Takip Edilen6.7K Takipçiler
Tim retweetledi
Makes ZERO sense that the ECB & BoE will supposedly hike rates into a supply shock that will WEAKEN their economies (because of their dumb energy policies)
While Fed's Bowman says: "three cuts... before the end of 2026, to hopefully support the labour market"
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Really good take on gold and silver and why they’re underperforming during this war
Would also add. We heard so many bad takes about Bitcoin failing as an “inflation hedge” or a “debasement hedge” because gold was ripping higher whilst Bitcoin sold off for a few months
Yet it was all just structural flows
Gold with structural central bank demand, Bitcoin with whale and LTH selling
Michael McNair@michaeljmcnair
Gold and silver are not acting well in a period of rapidly rising geopolitical risks. We have an Iran War, Strait of Hormuz blockade, rising volatility. In the old framework, that setup should be close to ideal for gold. But once you understand what is now driving gold, this move makes perfect sense. Something fundamental changed after the US and Europe froze Russian reserves in 2022. For decades, surplus countries parked their excess savings in US dollar assets, mostly Treasuries. The freezing of Russian reserves combined with the current administration's explicit push to discourage foreign countries from parking excess savings in US financial assets, forced surplus countries to rethink where they store reserves. And those countries haven't changed their domestic policies that generate the excess savings, so those savings have to be placed somewhere. The result is that gold and silver have increasingly become the obvious “neutral” reserve assets. That’s why gold decoupled from the three factors that used to explain it…real interest rates, volatility, and liquidity. Now reserve accumulation flows have become the primary driver. That shift has a consequence I don’t think most investors have thought through. If gold is now primarily driven by reserve flows from surplus countries, then gold has become pro-cyclical. Reserve growth is driven by export revenues, trade surpluses, economic growth in surplus economies. When the global economy is strong and surplus countries are generating large export revenues, their excess savings grow, their reserve accumulation accelerates, and gold catches a bid. When that surplus generation is disrupted, the bid weakens or reverses. This is exactly what is happening with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The GCC countries are major reserve/gold buyers and now their export revenues are collapsing. They likely need to liquidate some reserves to cover fiscal obligations, and gold is one of their most liquid assets. Even if the reserve sales aren’t excessive yet, the market can see their reserve accumulation has stalled and probably reversed. That flow, which was a meaningful source of gold demand, has gone to zero at best. There are also secondary effects on other surplus economies. China is the world's largest oil importer. An energy shock of this magnitude slows Chinese growth, and compresses Chinese surpluses, which slows Chinese reserve accumulation. That same growth shock ripples through Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and the rest of Asia. The whole chain that has been driving gold higher, surplus countries generating excess savings that need a home outside the dollar system, is being disrupted by an event that in the old model would have been unambiguously bullish for gold. This doesn't mean the structural case for gold is broken. The dollar standard is still ending. Surplus countries still need an alternative to Treasuries and gold is still the most obvious destination. But it does mean gold is going to be more volatile along that structural trend than most people expect, and the volatility will correlate with global growth and surplus generation rather than with the old drivers. Gold rallies when surpluses expand. Gold sells off when surpluses contract. Even if the reason for the contraction is rising geopolitical risk that, under the old model, should have sent gold to the moon.
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Tim retweetledi
its been 3 weeks, zero journalists have issued op-eds about the complete clusterfuck that is European energy policy, for the second time in less than half a decade no less.
many op-eds about how they are right and the pentagon is wrong about Iran though
lesson in there
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Tim retweetledi
Sorry but the Forbes 30 Under 30 hit rate for fraudsters is now WAY too strong lol
kache@yacineMTB
These people are going to jail for a long, long time. This is such ridiculously blatant fraud.
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Tim retweetledi
The 10y gilt yield is telling the government that they are idiots, yet they will continue to come out and gaslit the population of the uk that their policies are beneficial and sound.
An actual travesty.
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Tim retweetledi
Markets follow predictable cycles after geopolitical shocks
First, everyone panics.
Then they start to get used to the 'new normal'.
We're in the "diminishing effect" stage now.
How long until "So What?"
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🤝 $COAL ETF traded 6x it's 30 day average volume yesterday
Can't get gas?
Can't afford gas?
Try our beautiful, clean, coal...
Anas Alhajji@anasalhajji
الفحم يستعيد عرشه.. حتى ملكة الخضر، ألمانيا، تعود له!
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ICYMI O/N (tgif hagw!! - COYG)
IRAN:
Israel struck Tehran on Friday, targeting the "infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime", the military said. Iran fired a barrage of missiles at Israel, the Israeli military said, triggering air raid sirens in Tel Aviv. (RTRS)
Iran also retaliated against other Gulf states on Friday with heavy explosions shaking Dubai and fires erupting in Kuwait and Bahrain. Saudi Arabia reported shooting down multiple Iranian drones targeting its oil-rich Eastern Province. Kuwait said a drone hit the Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery again (730k BPD), sparking a fire at several units. (AP)
Ali Mohammad Naini, the spokesman for Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, insisted Friday that Tehran was still building missiles, seeking to counter a claim by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that it no longer could. He also said the war would go on. (AP)
Ali Mohammad Naini, spokesperson for Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, has been killed in early Friday strikes, the IRGC said in statement. This come minutes after he was quoted outlining continued missile production despite the ongoing war and warning of “surprises” and more complex operations ahead. (Iran International)
Despite the US stepping up efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz, analysts say Iran is still believed to have a vast stockpile of mines, cruise missiles on trucks and hundreds of undamaged boats in hidden facilities. Analysis suggests it could be weeks for somewhat safer passage, but its unlikely the threat is 100% removed. (WSJ)
Saudi Arabia's oil officials' base case is that oil prices could soar past $180 a barrel if the disruptions persist until late April. Some Saudi customers are balking at using the Oman crude benchmark given its volatility. Aramco, however, is insisting it is a true reflection of supply in the market, the officials said to the WSJ. (WSJ)
China is throttling exports of jet fuel, diesel and fertilisers, adding to fears in some of Asia’s biggest resource, manufacturing and agricultural nations that supplies could run short because of the war in the Middle East. (FT)
China's Sinochem has cut crude throughput at its only refinery in the southeastern Chinese city of Quanzhou to around 60%, according to Reuters sources, with some saying it is seeking prompt-delivery crude to cover a supply gap in Middle Eastern oil. Sinochem has also been trying to buy spot cargoes from bonded storage for prompt delivery to cover its "immediate" requirements for the 300k BPD Quanzhou plant. (RTRS)
China’s foreign ministry urged all sides involved in the Gulf conflict on Friday to ensure a stable and unimpeded oil supply, in comments on the United States weighing the lifting of sanctions on some Iranian oil. (RTRS)
Disrupted fertiliser shipments and soaring energy prices from the war in Iran are threatening to unleash a fresh food-price surge across vulnerable nations, risking a years-long setback just as many were recovering from successive global shocks. (RTRS)
The European Union is bracing for a protracted energy price shock after Iran crippled a vital Qatar gas plant, raising the prospect of a years-long supply crunch. (BBG)
War in the Middle East is forcing Asia to turn to coal to plug the gaping hole emerging in its supply of liquefied natural gas. (BBG)
Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for Asian LNG prices for 2026-2028 as missile strikes damaged two out of 14 trains at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, disrupting global supply of the fuel. Bank assumes a 2-month outage for the Qatar and UAE export complex, up from 4-6 weeks prior. (BBG)
Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote’s refinery is being flooded with inquiries as African governments scramble to secure fuel supplies after the Iran war disrupted flows. (BBG)
MACRO:
US President Trump is seeking to lower the profile of his mass deportation effort, and has directed his top advisers to adopt a new approach on one of his central campaign promises, according to WSJ sources. Trump has become convinced that some of his administration’s deportation policies have gone too far, and voters don’t like the term “mass deportation.” (WSJ)
China left benchmark lending rates unchanged for the 10th consecutive month in March on Friday, in line with market expectations. (RTRS)
Chinese exports of rare-earth magnets rose 8.2% from a year earlier in the first two months of 2026, customs data showed on Friday, although shipments to the U.S. dipped. (RTRS)
China's long fight with deflation risks morphing into something harsher, with economists warning the war in Iran could spark "bad inflation" at a time when chronically weak consumption and fading external demand leave the economy with little cushion. (RTRS)
Analysts say China is reaching the limit of what oil it can produce, as offshore growth starts to taper off and higher-cost unconventional resources prove increasingly difficult to exploit. (RTRS)
China’s ravenous appetite for silver lifted overseas purchases to an eight-year high at the start of 2026, as importers fed a surge in industrial and investment demand. (BBG)
Five Chinese companies launched Hong Kong share sales on Friday that sought to raise up to HK$5.3 billion ($677.9 million) in total, even as Beijing has stepped up scrutiny of new listings by mainland firms in the city. (RTRS)
The ECB is determined to meet its inflation goal, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said. (BBG)
Britain borrowed more than forecast in February, showing the risks facing the public finances even before the war in Iran upended the economic outlook. (BBG)
UK PM Starmer has been told that he may have to “rethink” the government’s borrowing rules to fund a potential cost of living bailout amid mounting concern about the impact of the Iran war on household finances. (The Times)
J.P. Morgan expects the BoE to hike interest rates by 25 basis points each in April and July, changing its stance of anticipating no change this year. Goldman and Morgan Stanley have pushed back their forecasts of two rate cuts this year and now expect the BoE to remain on an extended hold. (RTRS)
Australia’s three-year note yield surged by the most since June 2024 as concern over quickening inflation spurred traders to boost bets on central bank interest-rate hikes. (BBG)
New South Wales, Australia’s second-biggest coal-producing state, will ban new mine applications for the fossil fuel and impose rules to reduce methane emissions from existing projects. (BBG)
South Korean authorities said on Friday that Iranian attacks on Qatar's energy facilities raise uncertainty, but downplayed concerns about disruption to its liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, citing the availability of alternative sources. (RTRS)
GEOPOLITICAL:
China poses a pressing threat given its military build-up continues unabated and effective deterrence is needed to make sure any attack would be very risky for Beijing, Taiwan Defence Minister Wellington Koo said on Friday. (RTRS)
Cyprus wants a “frank, open discussion,” with the UK government over the future of the British sovereign bases on the eastern Mediterranean island when the current conflict in the Middle East is over, the nation’s President said. (BBG)
EQUITIES:
Nvidia CEO Huang said tech leaders need to be careful not to scare people about artificial intelligence, in response to a question about how Anthropic PBC could have better handled messy contract negotiations with the Pentagon. (BBG)
Kalshi Inc. has raised more than $1 billion at a valuation of $22 billion in a new financing round, according to a Bloomberg source. (BBG)
OpenAI is planning to unify its ChatGPT app, coding platform Codex and browser into a desktop “superapp,” a step to simplify the user experience and continue with efforts to focus on engineering and business customers. (WSJ)
Super Micro Computer placed two employees on leave and fired a contractor after learning of their alleged involvement in a scheme to divert computer servers assembled in the U.S. to China in a violation of export-control laws. (WSJ)
Samsung Electronics is reportedly in talks to establish long-term supply agreements (LTAs) with Google and Microsoft. (Korean press via @jukan05)
Tesla is looking to buy equipment worth $2.9 billion for manufacturing solar panels and cells from Chinese suppliers including Suzhou Maxwell Technologies, according to Reuters sources, as CEO Elon Musk aims to add 100 gigawatts of solar capacity in the United States. (RTRS)
FedEx raised its outlook for the full year as revenue and package yields increased in the fiscal third quarter. (WSJ)
'Blue Origin Formally Enters Race to Develop Data Centers in Space' WSJ article reports Blue Origin has joined SpaceX and Starcloud in filing FCC applications for AI satellites. (WSJ)
Unilever, the maker of Dove deodorant and Hellman’s mayonnaise, is in talks to separate its food business and combine it with spice maker McCormick. (WSJ)
Novartis agreed to buy an experimental breast-cancer drug from Synnovation Therapeutics in a deal valued at up to $3 billion that seeks to bolster its oncology business. (WSJ)
DATA RECAP (Newsquawk):
EU Current Account (Jan) 13.0B (Prev. 34.6B)
German PPI M/M (Feb) -0.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.6%)
German PPI Y/Y (Feb) -3.3% vs. Exp. -2.7% (Prev. -3.0%)
New Zealand Balance of Trade (Feb) -257B vs. Exp. -0.74B (Prev. -0.519B)
New Zealand Exports (Feb) 6.63 vs. Exp. 6.6 (Prev. 6.21)
New Zealand Imports (Feb) 6.89 vs. Exp. 6.2 (Prev. 6.73)
UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Ex Banks (Feb) 14.3B vs. Exp. 8.5B (Prev. -30.4B)
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dam
Iran International English@IranIntl_En
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said missile production is continuing despite ongoing conflict, adding there are no shortages in stockpiles. “Our missile industry deserves a perfect score in 2025 and there is no concern in this regard,” the IRGC spokesman Ali Mohammad Naini said Friday, adding production continues under wartime conditions and warning of “surprises” and more complex operations ahead. iranintl.com/en/202603207537
Tim retweetledi
Hop on a call with me to talk about your ISA over the last year.
What went wrong, what mistakes have you likely made and how you can tighten things up for next year.
Yesterday I went through someone's portfolio and asked him why he had bought a specific stock (Unity Software).
He had a great qualitative understanding of the stock, but a lightbulb went off when I showed him under the cover.
But not only that, it just did not fit his portfolio either.
He joined the Academy there and then.
Click below, book in for 15 minutes.
Fink | Up and to the right 📈@Fink_Money
New ISA season coming up. Book in a call with me to see how we can look at what went wrong and right last year and how to fix problems for 26/27 (link in replies). No advice provided, simply how we can fix certain processes to make you better.
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If they hadn’t rallied their fkn tits off just before all of this Iran stuff I’d agree
J.C. Parets@JC_ParetsX
Consumer Staples are hitting new 6-week lows today relative to the S&P500. That's not something I'd expect to see if the stock market was about to collapse.
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@RealSimpleAriel @drmansipd I’ve been bullish nuclear since 2019
It’s been… emotional
Imagine being one of the people that relies on their opinions to make money.
That’s gotta suck 😂
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@drmansipd What i meant to say was, "lets check back in a couple years" 🤣x.com/RealSimpleArie…
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel
The thesis for nuclear requires serious patience. If there is one sector in this entire market I have absolute confidence in, it’s nuclear. they move to the beat of their own drum but the move is just around the corner imo. Let’s check back in several months to see how this ages.
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We did not see trends like this in the energy space 2022.
This trend right now in oil and gas is much more powerful and it's not even close. $XLE $OIH $XOP
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel
Nearly every name on that list is green today. And some people are still wondering where money is going? $XOP $XLE $OIH Oil, Oil, Oil, Oil, Oil and rounding out second place Memory names.
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Tim retweetledi
🎶 War, what is it gooooood foooor?
Getting BP out of a crisis mate
Axi@axi_official
Just over a month ago, $BP was 'in crisis' & suspending buybacks It's up 33% since...
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🚨 WORST “INSERT THING HAPPENING” SINCE 2008
𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐇𝐲𝐩𝐞@EffMktHype
FYI the last time 2 yields backed up above fed funds while curve bear flattened and oil was rising above 100 was April-May 2008
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Tim retweetledi
Just over a month ago, $BP was 'in crisis' & suspending buybacks
It's up 33% since...
Axi@axi_official
The big question now is if this sets an 'expectations floor' for the future... i.e. a platform for the new $BP CEO to build on...
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Makes LITERALLY PERFECT sense
People buy gold *in anticipation* of shit hitting the fan
People sell gold when shit *actually* hits the fan
And leverage fuels the moves in both directions
Just a Dude Who Invests@DudeWhoInvests
Makes LITERALLY ZERO sense. GOLD the hedge for geopolitical instability is crashing in the face of geopolitical instability. Can’t make this up.
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