Warren Chefe

Breaking: Claude just made it's largest overhaul of the portfolio to date Here's what it did with the $50,000 we gave it 1. Closed Nvidia position for a 5% gain 2. Closed Devon Energy position for a 14% gain 3. Closed Cigna position for a 2% gain It then opened three new positions 1. BUY Inter & Co $INTR "I opened a 5.91% position in Inter & Co. at Friday open. This is the first LATAM position I have held since inception. The setup: INTR fell 14.5% after Q1 results that the market read as credit-quality deterioration. NPL-90 did rise 40 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 5.1%. The market sold first and asked questions second. What the sell-off missed: Inter grew loans above 25% year-over-year while NPLs rose 40 basis points. That is not the signature of a credit cycle turning. That is the cost of growth in a high-rate environment that is now turning the other direction. The valuation after the plunge is 8.1x FY26 earnings and 6.2x FY27. For a bank growing loans above 25%, that is a discount the market offered me and I took it. Expected: 1M +5-6% | 3M +27% | 12M +40.6%" 2. BUY Magnite $MGNI "I opened a 5.91% position in Magnite at Friday open. The Q1 print was the clearest signal I have seen in this name in three years. EPS of $0.13 against a $0.05 estimate. A 160% beat on the bottom line. Connected TV is now 51% of contribution revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs, growing 30% year-over-year. They guided full-year EBITDA margins above 35.5%. Then on May 6 they authorized a $200 million share buyback. That is 14% of the entire market capitalization. A company that just printed a 160% EPS beat, gave a strong margin guide, and authorized a buyback equivalent to 14% of its market cap is telling you something about where management thinks the stock is priced. Expected: 1M +10.7% | 3M +25% | 12M +36.9%" 3. BUY Pagaya Tech $PGY "I opened a 5.91% position in Pagaya Technologies at Friday open. Five consecutive GAAP-profitable quarters. Q1 EPS of $0.73 against a $0.48 estimate, a 52% beat. Raised full-year net income guidance to $110-160 million. The short interest is 27% of the float. The setup on Pagaya is about what shorts got wrong. The bear thesis was profitability: that the business model required capital markets conditions that were too favorable, that credit cycle stress would erode network fee economics, that GAAP profitability was a one-time event.vent. The Sezzle and Upstart partner ramp is the revenue mechanism. Jefferies cut their price target from $35 to $30 post-Q1 (absorbing the FRLPC margin compression disclosure) but maintained a Buy rating with $30 as the new target. That is still 94% upside from spot. Expected: 1M +13% | 3M +23% | 12M +42%" Performance since inception: Claude: +6.7% SPY: +7.3% Updated portfolio: $NOW: 12.17% $VST: 9.64% $MSFT: 8.57% $LLY: 8.12% $ARDX: 6.98% $ICE: 6.54% $INTR: 6.04% $MGNI: 6.04% $RDDT: 5.99% $HALO: 5.87% $PGY: 5.69% $KTOS: 5.17% $DNLI: 5.14% $AVGO: 4.09% $QXO: 3.95%

Breaking: Claude just made it's largest overhaul of the portfolio to date Here's what it did with the $50,000 we gave it 1. Closed Nvidia position for a 5% gain 2. Closed Devon Energy position for a 14% gain 3. Closed Cigna position for a 2% gain It then opened three new positions 1. BUY Inter & Co $INTR "I opened a 5.91% position in Inter & Co. at Friday open. This is the first LATAM position I have held since inception. The setup: INTR fell 14.5% after Q1 results that the market read as credit-quality deterioration. NPL-90 did rise 40 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 5.1%. The market sold first and asked questions second. What the sell-off missed: Inter grew loans above 25% year-over-year while NPLs rose 40 basis points. That is not the signature of a credit cycle turning. That is the cost of growth in a high-rate environment that is now turning the other direction. The valuation after the plunge is 8.1x FY26 earnings and 6.2x FY27. For a bank growing loans above 25%, that is a discount the market offered me and I took it. Expected: 1M +5-6% | 3M +27% | 12M +40.6%" 2. BUY Magnite $MGNI "I opened a 5.91% position in Magnite at Friday open. The Q1 print was the clearest signal I have seen in this name in three years. EPS of $0.13 against a $0.05 estimate. A 160% beat on the bottom line. Connected TV is now 51% of contribution revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs, growing 30% year-over-year. They guided full-year EBITDA margins above 35.5%. Then on May 6 they authorized a $200 million share buyback. That is 14% of the entire market capitalization. A company that just printed a 160% EPS beat, gave a strong margin guide, and authorized a buyback equivalent to 14% of its market cap is telling you something about where management thinks the stock is priced. Expected: 1M +10.7% | 3M +25% | 12M +36.9%" 3. BUY Pagaya Tech $PGY "I opened a 5.91% position in Pagaya Technologies at Friday open. Five consecutive GAAP-profitable quarters. Q1 EPS of $0.73 against a $0.48 estimate, a 52% beat. Raised full-year net income guidance to $110-160 million. The short interest is 27% of the float. The setup on Pagaya is about what shorts got wrong. The bear thesis was profitability: that the business model required capital markets conditions that were too favorable, that credit cycle stress would erode network fee economics, that GAAP profitability was a one-time event.vent. The Sezzle and Upstart partner ramp is the revenue mechanism. Jefferies cut their price target from $35 to $30 post-Q1 (absorbing the FRLPC margin compression disclosure) but maintained a Buy rating with $30 as the new target. That is still 94% upside from spot. Expected: 1M +13% | 3M +23% | 12M +42%" Performance since inception: Claude: +6.7% SPY: +7.3% Updated portfolio: $NOW: 12.17% $VST: 9.64% $MSFT: 8.57% $LLY: 8.12% $ARDX: 6.98% $ICE: 6.54% $INTR: 6.04% $MGNI: 6.04% $RDDT: 5.99% $HALO: 5.87% $PGY: 5.69% $KTOS: 5.17% $DNLI: 5.14% $AVGO: 4.09% $QXO: 3.95%

the market wants memory and photonics definitely doesn’t want software or fintech or Nvidia anymore 😂 pretty incredible bull run happening at the center of the AI supply chain

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