WaveMaestro

Week ahead. And this one has a twist. $SPX still below its 200-day. VIX at 29. Iran negotiations no deal, no breakdown. The market is stuck in the middle. This week's data: → Mon: Consumer Confidence, already at multi-year lows → Tue: JOLTS Job Openings → Wed: Retail Sales + ISM Manufacturing, the week's live-market anchors → Thu: Jobless Claims → Fri: NFP but markets are closed (Good Friday) That last point matters. March NFP drops at 8:30 AM Friday to closed equity and bond markets. Prior: -92K. Consensus: +56K. No one can trade it until Monday April 6. If the number surprises — in either direction — Monday opens with 72 hours of built-up positioning. This week ends with a question that can't be answered until next week. $SPX $QQQ $IWM $TLT

$SPX +3.4% | $QQQ +4.4% | $IWM +2.8% First green week since the Iran war began. February 28. What drove it: Powell said rates are "in a good place." Retail Sales beat. ISM Manufacturing beat. Claims hit months-low at 202K. And then NFP dropped a bomb on Good Friday,+178K vs +60K expected. The data this week was nearly perfect. The problem is the data is backward-looking. What didn't resolve: Hormuz still shut. Oil still above $90. Iran negotiations still going. The ISM Prices Paid subindex hit a 3-year high. The stagflation setup hasn't changed, it just got quieter for one week. What I got right: flagged the 200-day as the level to watch. $SPX closed the week pressing up against it. Next week: NFP reaction Monday open. PCE + GDP final on April 9. This is where the conversation gets serious again. The structure doesn't care about one good week. $SPX $QQQ $IWM $TLT

March NFP: +178K. Consensus was +60K. Markets are closed. The reaction comes Monday. February was -92K — widely blamed on strikes and weather. March confirms: that was noise, not signal. The labor market just called the "recession incoming" narrative's bluff. But here's the setup for Monday: → Strong jobs = Fed stays patient. Rate cut expectations get pushed further out → Iran tensions still unresolved. Hormuz still shut. Oil still elevated → $SPX opens Monday with 72 hours of trapped positioning from this number This is a classic "good news is complicated news" NFP. Strong economy + no rate cuts + oil shock = the stagflation question gets louder, not quieter. The structure hasn't changed. The labor market just refused to crack. Watch Monday's open. $SPX $QQQ $IWM $TLT #NFP

@StockMKTNewz Perfect fundamental fuel to ignite the next impulsive wave we've been tracking on the charts.

Nvidia $NVDA just posted this: "Today, NVIDIA announced its collaboration with Google [ $GOOGL ] to optimize the new Gemma 4 open models to run efficiently across NVIDIA AI Infrastructure - from RTX PCs and DGX Spark to Jetson Orin Nano and Blackwell GPUs."

@zerohedge Selling the ultimate hard asset just to temporarily prop up a fundamentally broken fiat currency is a textbook macro trap.

Turkey sold 15% of its entire gold inventory to defend the lira and to fund energy purchases (not to mention various "slippages")

@AshCrypto Selling the ultimate hard asset just to temporarily prop up a fundamentally broken fiat currency is a textbook macro trap.

BREAKING: 🇹🇷 Turkey has dumped 120 tonnes of Gold worth $20 billion since the US-Iran war started, This is primarily done to defend the Turkish lira and fund energy purchases.

@KobeissiLetter CPI is just a lagging indicator; the macro wave structure in commodities has been pricing in this exact inflationary spike for months.

There is a near-perfect correlation between US oil prices and US CPI inflation, as shown in our below analysis. As WTI crude surges above $112/barrel, we believe the US economy is bracing for 3.5%+ CPI inflation, particularly if current prices persist through April. Asset owners will be the only winners in the long-run.

@brewmarkets They are holding the indices up by a thread to distribute liquidity while energy goes completely parabolic.

Oil prices are up 11%. The S&P 500 is down 0.12%. Wow.

$AAPL Elliott Wave Analysis Wave 2 correction did not breach the invalidation level. Our analysis remains valid, and we expect the price to rise. Our first target is the $320 level. $SPY $QQQ $GLD

Jobless Claims: 202K vs ~212K expected. Prior: 210K. Lowest reading in months. The labor market just got tighter on the same day tariffs went live. Four-week average is now pushing toward 208K levels you have to go back to 2018-2019 to match. Tomorrow is NFP. Prior was -92K in February. Claims are telling a completely different story: no wave of layoffs, no crack forming. The tariff clock started today. Claims are the fastest labor market signal we have, any disruption shows up here within 2-4 weeks. The May prints are when this scorecard really matters. For now: the labor market entered the tariff era at its strongest position in years. $SPX $IWM $TLT

@Barchart The news cycle and policies are changing so rapidly that this uncertainty is spilling over into the markets. The decline in the $SPX and $BTC could accelerate.

BREAKING 🚨: S&P 500 Timberrrrrrrrrrrrrr 📉📉

@KobeissiLetter The news cycle and policies are changing so rapidly that this uncertainty is spilling over into the markets. The decline in the $SPX and $BTC could accelerate.

BREAKING: Iran's Speaker of the Parliament claims that 7 million Iranians have declared they are ready to join the war against the US and Israel. "You come for our home, you are going to meet the whole family. Locked, loaded, and standing tall. Bring it on," he says.

@KobeissiLetter I believe these prices will drop as concrete steps are taken moving forward. Sanctions are on the horizon...

BREAKING: US oil prices surge above $108/barrel, now up +25% over the last week. That’s nearly +$10/barrel since President Trump’s “address to the nation” last night.

@JesseCohenInv What, do you expect them to hit an all-time high right away? Have you ever heard of something called “dampening”?

Why are gold and silver crashing as hopes of a de-escalation to the Iran war fade?

ISM Manufacturing: 52.7% vs 52.3 expected. Beat.Manufacturing expansion for the 3rd straight month. 17th consecutive month of overall economic expansion. This morning is giving the bulls two reasons to lean in: → Retail Sales +0.6% — consumer holding up → ISM Manufacturing 52.7 — factory floor still growing The nuance on ISM: Prices paid subindex hit its highest since June 2022. Manufacturing is expanding — but costs are accelerating. Energy shock is showing up in input prices before it shows up in output. Strong activity + rising prices = the Fed's nightmare scenario in one report. 17 months of expansion. But the quality of that expansion is changing. $SPX $XLI $DXY

@cryptorover Elliott's 1-2-3 setup is emerging. The classic third-wave structure is strong and is driving a significant move in a short period of time.

💥BREAKING: Brent crude closes March up +60%, its biggest monthly gain since 1988. Now up 72% since the start of 2026.

@brewmarkets The artificial intelligence sector was already strong, and this investment will significantly accelerate its growth. But I have a question: where is this all heading?

OpenAI just raised $122 billion. It's the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history.

@BitcoinMagazine I don’t think we need to make such a big deal out of things like this.

JUST IN: Bitcoin has closed its first green month after 5 months of red 👀

Retail Sales: +0.6% vs +0.4% expected. Beat. January was -0.2%. February bounces back hard. The American consumer just refused to blink — despite crashing sentiment, surging gas prices, and -92K February payrolls. Here's the nuance: this is February data. The Iran war started February 28. This print captures exactly one day of the conflict. The real consumer stress test shows up in March and April numbers. The headline is strong. The timing is the asterisk. For the Fed: a resilient consumer removes urgency to cut. Add this to the "no rush" pile — alongside 210K claims and a tight labor market. Powell said it Monday: rates are in "a good place." Today's retail number agrees. $SPX $XRT $TLT

In our previous analysis, we mentioned that the downtrend had come to an end. The price fell further, dropping to the $6,300 level. We believe the price has now completed the 5-wave structure and finished the diagonal. From here on, we expect the price to rise in three waves to complete Wave B, with an anticipated rise to $6,700. $SPX $QQQ $DXY $GLD

Powell just spoke at Harvard. Markets liked it. Key takeaways: → "Monetary policy is in a good place." Rate hike fears ease. → On the oil shock: "The tendency is to look through any kind of supply shock." Fed won't react mechanically. → The caveat: "You have to carefully monitor inflation expectations." If long-run expectations drift, the calculus changes. → On timing: "Monetary policy works with long and variable lags. By the time tightening takes effect, the oil price shock is probably long gone." Translation: the Fed is not hiking. But they're not cutting either. They're watching. The market needed this. Rate hike probability had crossed 50% Friday for the first time. Powell just walked that back without saying anything explicit. Michigan Consumer Sentiment revised down to 53.3 final — lowest of the year. The consumer is not as calm as the Fed. $SPX $TLT $DXY