Snow Tiger Ragnarok ❄

Brain fart: Maybe this is the plan? Thread?🧵

Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F never came on Friday. Here is the REAL reason why, and what it tells you: The most likely explanation is that he requested confidential treatment from the SEC. Confidential treatment is a legal tool that lets large funds delay disclosing positions they are still actively accumulating, sometimes for UP TO A YEAR. Funds use it for one reason: they are building a position big enough that public disclosure would MOVE THE PRICE AGAINST THEM before they are done. If that is what happened here, it means Aschenbrenner is quietly accumulating something significant and does not want the market to see it yet. The 24 year old who turned $225 million into $5.5 billion in 12 months going dark on the one day he was legally required to show his hand is not nothing. Pay attention to what happens when this position finally becomes public. We are checking every day, and when it comes, we’ll share it here publicly. Turn on notifications so you don’t miss the signal, this is VERY important. Many people will wish they followed us sooner.

I'm 100% sure if I met all you "photonic memory" experts in real life. 498 out of 500 of you couldn't explain CXL memory pooling or KV cache infrastructure and what $PENG actually does to derive revenue off that. This is why I'm seeing all these random $RKLB, $HIMS, or non technical AI experts on my timeline now. Backseat commenting completely wrong things about M7U MOCVD capex and $TSEM that aren't related. Or conflating every single term like an $SMCI integrator with photonics IP. Then just pitching buzzwords every under every one of my posts.

Roughly 400,000 Americans have died from synthetic opioids since 2018. That exceeds 130 September 11 attacks by death toll. Sebastian Gorka, senior White House official, publicly accused China yesterday of deliberately killing them as Opium Wars payback. The accusation dropped one day before Trump lands in Beijing. Gorka has placed the casus belli on the table. Gorka serves as Deputy Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Counterterrorism. He made the accusation in a Tuesday interview with Miranda Devine on the Pod Force One podcast, published as a New York Post exclusive May 13. Gorka framed Chinese fentanyl precursor supply as "deliberate targeted killing" of Americans and the Opium Wars in reverse. He cited the death toll as evidence of state intent. He presented no internal Chinese Communist Party documents directing the flow. The DEA's 2025 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report identifies China as the primary source for fentanyl precursors. State Department concurred in its March 2025 INCSR. ODNI's March 2025 Annual Threat Assessment listed Chinese precursor exports as a top-tier national security threat. Mexican cartels, primarily Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation, synthesize fentanyl from Chinese precursors in clandestine labs and traffic the product into the United States. Direct fentanyl shipments from China effectively ended in 2019 after class scheduling. Precursor flows continue through the Mexican port of Manzanillo. CDC National Vital Statistics System provisional data through April 2026 shows roughly 400,000 cumulative synthetic opioid deaths since 2018. The annual peak of approximately 73,000 occurred in 2023. The 2024 synthetic opioid death rate declined 35.6 percent year over year. The most recent 12-month total stands near 39,000. The First Opium War began in 1839 when Chinese imperial commissioner Lin Zexu seized and destroyed 20,000 chests of British East India Company opium in Canton. Britain went to war. The 1842 Treaty of Nanking ceded Hong Kong, opened five treaty ports to foreign trade, and imposed indemnities on the Qing dynasty. The Chinese Communist Party identifies the period from the Opium Wars through 1949 as the Century of Humiliation. Xi Jinping invokes the narrative as the founding grievance of modern Chinese identity. Gorka's framing inverts the historical roles. Fentanyl is the chemical. America is the target. The Opium Wars are the alleged precedent. China class-scheduled fentanyl in 2019 after US pressure. Cooperation collapsed August 2022 after the Pelosi Taiwan visit. The November 2023 Biden-Xi San Francisco summit resumed cooperation. China announced precursor export controls in November 2025 after Trump imposed a 20 percent tariff explicitly citing fentanyl. Trump cut the tariff after the controls. Chinese chemical firms increasingly accept Tether USDT through cryptocurrency rails outside SWIFT. TRM Labs and Elliptic on-chain analysis tracked approximately $27 million in precursor-linked payments through 2023. The Iraq War killed 4,500 Americans over eight years. Vietnam killed 58,220 over twenty years. Fentanyl has killed roughly seven times Vietnam in seven years. The death toll is verified by CDC. The intent is contested. DEA, State, and ODNI classify the flow as profit-driven criminal enterprise rather than state-directed warfare. The 35.6 percent decline in 2024 cuts against the deliberate-warfare thesis. If China were killing Americans on purpose, the rate would be rising. The rate is falling. Gorka's accusation collapses the distinction. It is the maximum-pressure entry posture into the Trump-Xi summit. Xi has 36 hours before Trump lands. The casus belli has been preemptively published. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

The Penn State professor who once ran quantitative research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond just gave a closed-door talk at the Oxford-Man Institute on which "anomalies" in asset pricing are real edge - and which are pure data mining. Front row: Man Group's $151B quant team. Oxford left the recording on a public server. Probably by accident. Almost nobody on quant Twitter has it. Bookmark it tonight before Oxford notices. Then read the article below.

Citadel's head of quant research on what separates the best from everyone else: "deep technical experts, but also curious and creative." "the most powerful skill is to be able to frame the most important next question." being curious and creative is the most underrated edge in algo trading.

Before the market opens, always prepare your mind first. One powerful trading psychology video can save you from costly mistakes, emotional decisions, and revenge trading. I try to start every day listening to great traders talk about discipline, patience, and mindset. Bookmark

This is the kind of market where you simply buy what the president tells you to: Chips $INTC Intel $NVDA NVIDIA $AMD AMD $TSM TSMC AI Infrastructure $DELL Dell $VRT Vertiv $NBIS Nebius $CRWV Coreweave $IREN IREN $HUT Hut 8 Rare Earths $USAR USA Rare Earth $CRML Critical Metals $TMC The Metals Company Critical Minerals $TMQ Trilogy Metals $UAMY United States Antimony $MP MP Materials $LAC Lithium Americas Quantum $IONQ IonQ $QBTS D-Wave Quantum $RGTI Rigetti Energy $BE Bloom Energy $GEV GE Vernova $FCEL Fuelcell $PLUG PlugPower $VICR Vicor Memory $SNDK Sandisk $MU Micron $STX Seagate $WDC Western Digital $P Everpure $MRAM Everspin Space $RKLB Rocket Lab $ASTS AST SpaceMobile $PL Planet Labs $FLY Firefly Aerospace $GILT Gilat Drones $AVEX Aevex $ONDS Ondas $UMAC Unusual Machines Nuclear $XE X-energy $LEU Centrus Energy $CCJ Cameco $OKLO Oklo $UUUU Energy Fuels AVs & Robotics $TSLA Tesla $AMZN Amazon Batteries $TE T1 Energy $ELVA Electrovaya $FLNC Fluence Energy Never miss the leading stocks again: fullstackinvestor.co/portfolio

This 1-hour MIT Probability Theory lecture is the mathematical foundation behind the 3 formulas top traders use > Law of Large Numbers - a tiny edge compounds into profit over enough trades > log-normal distribution - why modelling markets with normal distribution fails every time > Shannon entropy - how to detect insider information before it moves the price 87% of wallets on prediction markets lose the ones who win understand this math watch this

The MIT professor who trains quants for Citadel, Two Sigma, and Renaissance just gave a closed-door keynote at Oxford in front of Man Group's $151B team. They left the recording on a public server. Probably by accident. 1 hour. Free. No one's talking about it. Bookmark it before Oxford notices. Then read the article below.

>be Jim Simons >born 1938 in Brookline, Massachusetts >shark eyes, warm smile, galaxy brain >age 3, realize numbers double infinitely >age 4, obsessed with Zeno's paradox >parents: "what is wrong with this kid" 1950s: >MIT at 17 >graduate in 3 years >too easy >Berkeley PhD in 2 years >thesis is 20 pages >advisor doesn't know if it's genius or insane 1964: >join the NSA >job: crack Soviet codes >coldest war, hardest puzzles >you're very good at this 1967: >write a letter to the New York Times >call Vietnam "a stupid war" >NSA: "you can't do that" >you: "just did" >fired immediately 1968: >become math professor at Stony Brook >age 30, youngest department chair ever >do actual math >invent Chern-Simons theory >physicists use it for decades >you treat it like a footnote 1978: >get bored of academia >everyone says markets are random >you: "what if that's bullshit" >start trading with math 1982: >found Renaissance Technologies >strip mall office in Long Island >no suits, no MBAs >hire physicists, astronomers, codebreakers >Wall Street experience? disqualifying 1988: >launch Medallion Fund >close it to outsiders almost immediately >only employees can invest >this matters the method: >find patterns humans can't see >trade thousands of times a day >tiny edge × massive volume × time = infinite money >nobody knows exactly how >employees sign insane NDAs >secrets go to the grave the returns: >66% annually before fees >39% after fees >for 30+ years >not a single losing year >2008 financial crisis: +82.4% >best track record in history >better than Buffett, Soros, everyone >not even close the money: >net worth hits $31 billion >all from math >no oil, no inheritance >just patterns in the noise tragedy: >son Paul died in 1996 bicycle accident >son Nicholas drowns in 2003 >two sons gone >pour billions into autism research, math education, basic science May 2024: >die at 86 >never wrote a memoir >never explained how Medallion works >never needed credit the codebreaker who cracked the market. 66% a year. 30 years. the greatest investor who ever lived and nobody knows how he did it.

Jane Street pays $400K+ to first-year traders out of college, no PhD required. This 26-minute mock interview with two actual Jane Street traders, Graham and Andrea, will teach you more about passing a quant trader interview than the entire Green Book. They walk through a real probability puzzle - exactly the kind that gets you cut in round 2 - and show you what interviewers actually look for. It's not the right answer. It's how you reason out loud. 26 minutes. Free. Watch it today. Then read the article below.

This 1 hour Stanford lecture on Markov Decision Processes will teach you more about the math behind systematic trading decisions than a 3 month internship at Jane Street or JPMorgan. Bookmark & replace one movie today with this lecture, then read the complete article below.

Here's the humanoid exposure crowdsourced list: - $OUST - Rainbow Robotics (277810) - $AMBA - Ubtech Robotics - $MKA - Nextronics - $SYM - Harmonic Drive (6324) - $VPG - Beijing Geekplus - $MBLY - $ARBE - Nabtesco (6268) - $SERV - $HSYDF - Robotstrategy - $ZBRA - $CATL - $ABB - $BOT - Unitree (not public yet) - $LSCC - Esunny Robot (300024) - $NOVT - $RR - $PDY - Hesai (2525) - $SHA.DE - $XBOT - $XPEV - $BAM - $ALNT - 6268.T - $AMBQ - $ATOM - $MRAM - $ISRG - $HLIT - Robosense (2498) - $HG - $ACUVI - $CGNX - $KLIC - $BSL - $AEVA - $AUR - $CTH.V - $IMSR - $NEO - $KDK - $MRLN - $KITT - $INDI - $NOVT Off the top of my head: Harmonic Drive, $OUST, $BOT, $VPG, $MBLY, and Ubtech showed up the most. Will start doing DD into mentions.

3 rules to save your ass: 1. Is the market above 9 & 21EMA : ✅ 2. Am I with the trend, not against it: ✅ 3. I have a watchlist I am focused on: ✅ On Green days: I am happy On Red days: I am hunting for stocks

A breakdown of the photonics value chain and best positioned business: Layer 1: Materials & wafers • $GLW • $AXTI • $IQE • $AIXA • $AMS Layer 2: Core photonic devices • $IPGP • $COHR • $LITE • $LASR • $SIVE • Layer 3: Components & modules • $AAOI • $MTSI • $FN • $VIAV • $LPTH Layer 4: Systems & equipment • $ASML • $BESI • $ASM • $LPKF • $MKS Layer 5: Test, metrology & yield • $CAMT • $FORM • $AEHR • $ONTO • $VIAV

I found the exact document Jane Street, Citadel and Two Sigma use to hire candidates MIT published it for free 51 pages Zero to quant. Probability. Statistics. Market making. Real interview questions from the top 5 funds The same mathematical foundation I built the neural networks article on this week If you're serious about applying that framework - read this first Bookmark it before it disappears

Jane Street pays $750k/ year for quants who can answer how to use Stochastic Process and Markov Chains in quant trading. This 1-hour MIT lecture on probability gives you the same insights quants get paid $60K/month for. Bookmark & watch today. Then read the article below.

1 year ago, Trump bought $INTC at $20 and now its going to $200+ by year end. $INTC was losing $1 billion per quarter, but now they partnered with $AAPL. Here's Trumps 12 favorite stocks to buy: 1. $DELL — Buy Zone: $180–$200 AI server demand exploding. Dell powers enterprise AI infrastructure, government compute, and sovereign cloud expansion. 2. $CSCO — Buy Zone: $75–$80 Critical networking backbone for AI data centers, cybersecurity, government infrastructure, and enterprise communications dominance. 3. $NOK — Buy Zone: $8–$9 5G infrastructure, secure telecom networks, and Western alternatives to Chinese communications equipment are strategic priorities. 4. $TSLA — Buy Zone: $360–$370 American robotics, autonomous AI, energy storage, and manufacturing leadership all tied into one company. 5. $ASTS — Buy Zone: $50–$60 Space-based cellular infrastructure could become critical American communications and defense technology. 6. $IONQ — Buy Zone: $25–$35 Quantum computing race versus China. Massive long-term implications for cybersecurity, military, and AI acceleration. 7. $LMT — Buy Zone: $420–$440 Defense AI, missile systems, aerospace dominance, and military infrastructure remain core U.S. strategic priorities. 8. $NVDA — Buy Zone: $160–$170 AI compute king powering American hyperscaler leadership. 9. $PLTR — Buy Zone: $110–$120 Government AI operating system deeply connected with defense and intelligence growth. 10. $ORCL — Buy Zone: $130–$140 Sovereign cloud and national AI infrastructure expansion accelerating globally. 11. $AMD — Buy Zone: $132–$148 Critical US AI chip competitor helping reduce dependence on foreign manufacturing. 12. $RKLB — Buy Zone: $19–$24 Space and defense infrastructure becoming increasingly important for national security dominance. Remember, Trump is investing back into US companies for dominance. For DELL, I'd add Dec 2028 $350 calls (for a buy and hold play). ♻️RESHARE this post and share 1 comment for my KEY SUPPORT LEVELS for when SPY crashes in May/June.

The founder of Renaissance Technologies - the hedge fund that makes 66% a year, runs the most secretive trading floor on Earth, and has never accepted outside money - once stood in front of 500 mathematicians and explained exactly how he did it. Jim Simons. The Einstein Lecture. American Mathematical Society. 1 hour 20 minutes.They left it on a small university channel. Almost nobody knows it exists. No one's talking about it. Bookmark it before they do. Then read the article below.