WiLLyTfE Tipster

⚽️Pinnacle KickOff Bot UPDATE⚽️ Results: 251 tips -> +40.79u YIELD 16.25% Tips with maximum liquidity for investing in sharp bookies (Asian, Exchange) #BettingTips Aimed at medium/high stakers. Backtesting since Sep2023 (Almost 2000 tips) docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@AleatoricFC @NeilMac555 Yes. Those movements (which can be negative depending on the market) create opportunities. But I want to emphasize again that it’s not just the movements that matter.

@WiLLyTfE1 @NeilMac555 Okay, so what you are saying is that those movements, not always, but sometimes create opportunities. Because the market overreacts. Your algorithm filters those ocasiona for profit. Is that it?

Barca 1.81 to win El Clasico this weekend

%CLV is a very accurate metric for comparing your long-term %YIELD. But when you’re investing just a few minutes before the markets close, it won’t matter much. My bot, for example, posts 3 minutes before the kickoff time. As I told you, for this type of approach, market movements, market patterns, and robust, consistent parameter filtering are the most important factors.

@WiLLyTfE1 @NeilMac555 Do I understand correctly that the market is inefficient at processing information? It overcorrects , creating opportunity. Is that correct? The reason I ask is that if this is true, then CLV loses value as a metric.

I started in September 2023 by tracking market movements in sufficiently liquid markets (<5% VIG) during the 80 minutes leading up to kickoff. I can’t speak to what I haven’t analyzed (i.e., matches with lower liquidity and movements that occur more than 80 minutes in advance). What I’ve learned over these nearly three years is that if you do steam betting, you’ll have to do it with soft bookies (to increase your edge). Steam betting at sharp bookies won’t yield long-term profits (if you simply bet on a market that has, for example, seen a 5% drop in odds). However, there are other ways to become profitable by following market movements during the 80 minutes before kickoff (more liquidity and information enter the markets). It’s not easy; I’ve made many mistakes over this time. You have to take into account opening odds, market patterns (each market behaves differently), and find robust, consistent filters over time (ones that perform well in backtesting but also generalize well in the future). Overfitting is inevitable; the key is that, within the complexity, the filtering should be as simple as possible and follow the most logical approach. Best regards.

@NeilMac555 @WiLLyTfE1 @WiLLyTfE1 what is the verdict?

All the information is in the spreadsheet PDF (link). In any case, I’ve been telling people who ask me that it might be best to wait until August. In June and July, access to the channel will be free, so people can also see what the bot is all about. I’ll post the access link here in early June. Best regards.

@WiLLyTfE1 Anyway to join?

⚽️Pinnacle KickOff Bot Update⚽️ ‼️Approaching 500 (499) published tips‼️ May +2.91u YIELD 11.19% Total +54.82u YIELD 10.99% Maximum liquidity. Designed for medium/high-stakers bettors using sharp bookmakers (Pinnacle|Asian|Exchange). This will be the last Premium month (until August). In June and July, the World Cup will be taking place and little else, so I will provide free access to the channel. I will keep the bot running 24/7, and results will be tracked independently. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@javierlopeix O tambíen puedes invertir en sharp bookies🤷‍♂️🤔. Y seguro que no te limitan.

¿Puedes hacer algo para que no te limiten? Si, no apostar. Si ganas te van a limitar. Seguro. Ahora bien, también debes saber que los que más ganan no es porque no les limiten, es porque son los que mejor se adaptan.

@Gunel09019361 Thank you very much👌💪

@WiLLyTfE1 Can't recommend more👍🏼🫶🏼

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@HarIeeyy Thanks for the reply, Harley. For now, things are still going quite well. On the Pinnacle kickoff channel, we’re approaching 500 tips with around an 11% yield, in high-liquidity markets🤞. So I can’t complain.

Thanks a lot mate, hope your service is still going well? Live service still running, 5% ROI for the season, 12% ROI across low volume channel Not sure about availability on sharps, a year or two ago was fine, but i think more complicated now. although I haven’t monitored properly in a long time, as most people take on softs

📆April Results 📚Bets placed 133 📈ROI 20.97% 💵Avg stake 0.54u/£27.00 💰15.6 units profit 💸£780.00 profit (£50 per unit) Another strong month to round off the penultimate phase of the season Season is running @ a ridiculous 19.90% ROI across 2375+ bets, performing way above what I expected. May could finish -30% ROI and i’d still be pleased with how this season has played out As most tipsters continue to stay quiet due to tough periods and losing their edge, I will continue to wave the flag of transparency and producing long term profitability in a challenging betting climate

Es que da igual .Si quieres ser mas realista cambia el caso B del 10% a 7% YIELD. Las ganancias del caso B serían 14000 en 200 apuestas al mes en sharp. Los high stakers normalmente van a preferir eso que hacer 6000 apuestas al mes de 100€ en Retabet a un 3% YIELD para ganar 18000. Hay gente que valora comodidad y gestion de riesgo, y ahi el Yield entra en juego. Tambien son matemáticas. Como dijeron en una respuesta. Cada cual hace lo que mas se adapta a el. Todo es válido. Pero hay que contar los diferentes escenarios posibles y cuando se habla de gran volumen hablar de los inconvenientes que eso tiene (tiempo, limitaciones, mayor drawdown ..etc)

Cuando dices luego le vino el drawdown lo que estas diciendo es que no tiene un 10% de yield. No recuerdo sus stats pero no estaban en un 10% de yield. No es realista un 10% de Yield en mercados con más de 1000€ de liquidez en asia sostenido en miles de apuestas (2k -3k -4k), los mejores de pickyo rondaban el 4-5-6% y algunos mercados ni tenian el maxbet en 1000€, lo siento pero no te lo compro, no es realista el ejemplo.

El yield importa menos de lo que crees. Un sistema al 4% de yield con 900 apuestas al mes genera más dinero que uno al 18% con 30. La matemática no negocia.

@ZonaApuestasYT Por que se lo quedaria para el? Si no le afecta a sus inversiones. Nishikori obtuvo casi un 10% tras mas de 2000 tips (luego le vino el drawdown) y ahora está trabajando a % con un sindicato que le dará mucho mas dinero y menos estrés que antes.

Si alguien saca un 10% de yield en mercados asiáticos con 1000€ de liquidez (no 50€) se lo queda para el, no hay inversores detrás porque el sistema sería demasiado bueno para compartir. De hecho es una situación subrealista no hay ningún tipster con 2.000 Picks en mercados asiáticos de 1000€ de liquidez con un 10% de yield. Con 500 o 1000 Picks puede que haya por pura suerte en la varianza.

April Results +8.17u YIELD 6.43% Total (473 tips) +51.91u YIELD 10.97% A poor end to the month cost us a few units. Even so, another positive month, adding 8u in highly liquid markets. As I’ve said before, in this final part of the season, market volatility is higher (the teams’ needs carry a lot of weight in the odds), which makes me a bit sceptical about the quality of the tips published by the bot (some tips meet the parameters when they wouldn’t have done so at other times of the season). But we managed to make a profit in April, and let’s hope May does too. May will be the channel’s last premium month (until August). In June and July, as everything will be on hold due to the World Cup, I will provide free access to the channel. I will leave the bot running 24 hours a day, and the results obtained during the World Cup will be treated separately. Best regards. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@theblackw1zard @NeilMac555 My bad again😅 But still give me Romario on that XI.

@WiLLyTfE1 @NeilMac555 Just to make it right, Stoichkov and Salenko scored 6 in 94. Perhaps Id go with Romario.

🌎🏆I asked ChatGPT to make the best World Cup XI from the 90's. What changes would you make?

My mistake. I didn’t read the part about the World Cups. So Stoichkov ahead of Laudrup, and still Romário ahead of Batistuta. Romário was the top scorer (5 goals) and best player of the 1994 World Cup. Brazil were champions. He scored in the quarterfinal and semifinal. Batistuta scored 10 goals across the 1994 and 1998 World Cups (2 hat-tricks vs Greece and Jamaica in the group stage). Argentina were eliminated in the Round of 16 and the quarterfinals respectively. His most important goals came in the Round of 16 vs Romania and England. I’d rather be Romário in 1994 than Batistuta (1994 and 1998 combined) —I don’t know about you.

@WiLLyTfE1 @NeilMac555 Batistuta has twice as many goals as Romario..

Throughout this last year, I’ve noticed that the first movement after markets open has become much less accurate than it was a few years ago. Because of this, benchmarking services no longer work the way they used to at the moment Pinnacle markets open. The reason? I can’t be sure, but I think I have a suspicion why. I could be wrong. The lines that were once moved by a human who knew what they were doing (even if it was system-assisted) are now being moved by bots. And nowadays, anyone can build a bot that detects statistical value. The downside: that initial movement has turned into garbage. And benchmarking based on the opening odds’ first movement has as well. The upside: the human who used to move those opening odds will now find great opportunities a few minutes later. Fortunately, closing odds (with much higher liquidity) are still quite accurate. And I suppose the human factor has something to do with that—or at least I’d like to think so. In short, AI can be helpful , but human knowledge still has its power (at least in predictive football markets).