Winnable

76% chance one of the current top 4 – Freo, Swans, Cats, Hawks – wins the flag

Flag Ranks after Round 11: 1 - Geelong (↑1) 2 - Sydney (↓1) 3 - Fremantle ( – ) 4 - Hawthorn (NEW) Brisbane's big loss sees them drop a long way - but they've only fallen back one place and sit next in line at 5th.

Flag Ranks after Round 10: 1 - Sydney ( – ) 2 - Geelong (NEW) 3 - Fremantle (↑1) 4 - Brisbane Lions (↓2) Geelong have jumped from 5th and the Hawks have dropped out, but remain next in line

Flag Ranks after Round 9: 1 - Sydney ( – ) 2 - Brisbane Lions (↑1) 3 - Hawthorn (↓1) 4 - Fremantle ( – ) Geelong are next in line and then there's a big gap after that.

Flag Ranks after Round 8: 1 - Sydney ( – ) 2 - Hawthorn ( – ) 3 - Brisbane Lions ( – ) 4 - Fremantle ( – ) No changes this week - still a gap after the top 3, and the Cats at 5

Flag Ranks after Round 7: 1 - Sydney (↑3) 2 - Hawthorn (↓1) 3 - Brisbane Lions (↓1) 4 - Fremantle (NEW) There's now a gap behind the top three - Geelong’s bad loss slides them to fifth, allowing Freo to break into the ranks.

Flag Ranks after Round 6: 1 - Hawthorn (↑1) 2 - Brisbane Lions (↓1) 3 - Geelong (NEW) 4 - Sydney (↓1) A good round for the Cats, and a bad one for the Dogs. It remains a very even top 4, with the Dockers the next best.

Mark Blicavs kicks a goal from a throw-in on the wing

Flag Ranks after Round 5: 1 - Brisbane Lions ( – ) 2 - Hawthorn (↑1) 3 - Sydney (↑1) 4 - Western Bulldogs (↓2) Dogs slide a little with their loss to the Hawks, but it's an even top 4 right now- with a bit of a gap to 5th (Freo)

Flag Ranks after Round 4: 1 - Brisbane Lions (↑3) 2 - Western Bulldogs (↓1) 3 - Hawthorn (↓1) 4 - Sydney (↑3) Brisbane never left the ranks despite starting 0-2, and their strong win sees them back to number 1

Flag Ranks after Round 3: 1 - Western Bulldogs ( – ) 2 - Hawthorn (↑1) 3 - Gold Coast(↓1) 4 - Brisbane Lions ( – ) Hawks and Suns effectively =2nd, the round's results just slightly more favourable to Hawthorn despite their byes. Cats and Freo next in line.

@roberto_boberto On Gerard Whateley's sen show- towards the end of their Means Test segment today, clipped up here as Dataland cms.megaphone.fm/channel/NTETP1…

@WinnableAFL Link?

Adam Simpson says he hadn't seen Expected Score until Ken showed him this season (?)

Flag Ranks after Round 2: 1 - Western Bulldogs ( – ) 2 - Gold Coast (↑5) 3 - Hawthorn ( – ) 4 - Brisbane Lions (↓2) The Suns have now shown enough to rise to 2nd

Flag Ranks after Round 1: 1 - Western Bulldogs (↑1) 2 - Brisbane Lions (↓1) 3 - Hawthorn (↑4) 4 - Adelaide ( – ) Dogs are the standout team right now, ahead of a very even pack of six teams. Cats, Swans and Suns round out the group at ranks 5-7.

Flag Ranks after Opening Round: 1 - Brisbane Lions 2 - Western Bulldogs (↑1) 3 - Geelong (↓1) 4 - Adelaide Gold Coast and Sydney have risen to ≈4th, but remain ranked just behind at 5 and 6

2026 Pre-season Finals Forecast

Geelong is the only team to have defeated Hawthorn in multiple finals this century. #AFLCatsHawks

If Kennett Curse results were flipped, Hawthorn would have: - made finals in 2009 - finished 3rd on the ladder in 2010 instead of 7th - been 20-2 W-L, equal with Pies in 2011 - been 19-3 and 1st in 2012 - been 21-1 and 1st in 2013 #AFLCatsHawks

Brisbane become the seventh 4+ consecutive prelim team this century: 01-04 Lions 07-11 Cats 09-12 Magpies 11-15 Hawks 17-20 Tigers 19-22 Cats 22-25 LIONS