Witold Repetowicz
45.5K posts
@WitoldRPL
Ph.D./ War Studies University, Info Ops Foundation Poland, Casimir Pulaski Foundation, Defence24/ writer, journalist and film (documentary) director
This is a HUGE win for America. We need to ignore the people who won't be happy until there is a ground invasion of Iran. My father promised to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and that's exactly what he is achieving!!!
Kilicdaroglu is currently trying to subdue the Turkish main opposition CHP headquarters through police force to seize the building in Ankara. Real shame. This is the party which has founded the Republic of Turkey.
While Trump negotiates a deal with the Islamic Republic, a deal with zero human rights clauses, regime is hanging people in silence. Today they hanged another innocent Iranian. Mojtaba Kian was arrested, tried, and executed in less than 50 days. All of it happened under a 13-week internet blackout the longest state-imposed digital blackout in human history. No witnesses. No international pressure. No chance for his family to scream for help. You cannot make peace with a regime that executes their own people faster than the world can count them. None of the U.S. presidents included human rights as a central condition in their nuclear deals with the Islamic Republic. That omission gave the regime power, money, legitimacy, and time while the Iranian people paid the price. 💔
If it is perceived in the region that a deal with Iran allows the regime to survive and become more powerful over time, we will have poured gasoline on the conflicts in Lebanon and Iraq. A deal that is perceived to allow Iran to survive and possess the ability to control the Strait in the future will put Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Shia militias in Iraq on steroids.
It’s hard to overstate how deeply Netanyahu views this moment as a possible personal and political defeat. A U.S.–Iran agreement under Trump would be a major blow to him mainly diplomatically, but above all politically. For years, Netanyahu built his political identity around being “Mr. Iran,” the leader who insisted that only pressure, deterrence, and force could stop the Iranian regime. And now, after multiple rounds of operational successes but one resounding strategic failure, and after finally succeeding in drawing the United States into direct confrontation with Iran, he may be forced to accept an agreement that not only legitimizes the very regime he sought to weaken, but also exposes the collapse of his long-standing Iran doctrine. His approach was based on the belief that more pressure, more military power, and tighter coordination between Israel and the United States would eventually either force Iran into submission or destabilize the regime itself. Instead, the result has been a more radicalized, more resilient, and more dangerous Iran, one that even Washington now hesitates to confront militarily again. If this confrontation ends with an agreement, an even bigger strategic question emerges: what future American president would be willing to commit U.S. forces to another major Middle Eastern conflict after seeing the political and military costs of this one? Netanyahu had what may have been his greatest opportunity to prove his central strategic theory: that a close Israeli-American military partnership could fundamentally reshape Iran and perhaps even threaten the regime’s survival. By every indication, that assumption failed. Against this backdrop, reports of a tense conversation between Trump and Netanyahu become much easier to understand. They also help explain the extraordinary level of pressure now coming from Jerusalem, and the extent to which Netanyahu is trying to persuade, or pressure, the administration not to move toward a deal with Tehran. The bottom line is that a U.S.–Iran agreement would not only signal the failure of the military confrontation Netanyahu pushed for, but also the collapse of the broader strategic doctrine he has championed since entering Israeli politics, all on the eve of what could be the most critical election of his career. In that sense, the next Israel’s leadership need to learn the fundamental lessons of this war. More than ever, this conflict demonstrates the urgent need for Israel to develop a different long-term strategy for dealing with Iran and especially to understand the following: Israel’s confrontation with Iran will not bring normalization with the Arab world, nor will it resolve Israel’s most fundamental security challenges, first and foremost, the Palestinian issue. The belief that regime change in Iran would transform Israel’s position in the Middle East was always detached from reality. In fact, the consistent opposition of Gulf leaders and major Arab states to further escalation against Iran has demonstrated this repeatedly throughout the conflict. Israel will not be able to use the “Iran card” as a substitute for addressing the core political issues shaping the region. Anyone arguing that military confrontation with Iran alone can unlock normalization is mistaken and, more importantly, misleading others about the strategic reality of the Middle East. Because despite the undeniable tactical and operational achievements of the campaign, this failure may ultimately leave Israel facing a more dangerous strategic reality, one that has not fundamentally improved its position in the Middle East. #IranWar
Warunki porozumienia USA-Iran wg Al Jazeery: - uwolnienie irańskich aktywów zamrożonych ze względu na sankcje; - zniesienie amerykańskiej blokady Iranu; - zakończenie walk na wszystkich frontach (zatem także zakończenie izraelskiej operacji w Libanie); - wycofanie wojsk USA z bezpośredniego sąsiedztwa Iranu (cokolwiek to oznacza) W zamian za to Amerykanie mają dostać: - otwarcie Ormuzu. Znoszenie blokady irańskich portów przez Amerykanów i otwarcie Ormuzu przez Irańczyków będą pewnie odbywały się stopniowo. Jak już te wszystkie warunki zostaną spełnione, obie strony będą miały 30 dni na wynegocjowanie porozumienia w zakresie irańskiego programu nuklearnego (termin 30 dni może być wydłużony). Pewnie na tym etapie negocjowane będzie pełne zniesienie sankcji z Iranu. Irańskie źródła idą bardziej w kierunku takim, że "otwarcie Ormuzu" = każde przekroczenie Ormuzu będzie odbywało się w porozumieniu z irańskimi siłami zbrojnymi oraz, że docelowo kwestia Ormuzu będzie rozstrzygnięta przez Iran i Oman (bez udziału USA). Czekamy oczywiście na finalną wersję porozumienia, ale - na ten moment - brzmi to jako dość nierówny układ. Same zamrożone irańskie aktywa, które mają być uwolnione w ramach pierwszej fazy, to jest ok. 100 mld dolarów. Tymczasem rzecznik irańskiego MSZ-u w swoim wpisie porównuje (choć nie wprost) Trumpa do cesarza Filipa, który zawarł w imieniu Rzymu bardzo niekorzystny układ z Persją - Armenia trafiła pod perską kontrolę, a dodatkowo Rzym musiał zapłacić 500 000 denarów.
