WooaDady

@HanChulYong 레트로핏 제공 자체는 맞는 말인데, 그게 왜 필요해졌는지가 핵심 아닌가요? HW3로 된다고 해서 팔았는데 안 되는 상황이면 문제는 이미 그 이전에 있는거죠. 이유는 모르겠디만 무엇인가에 꽃혀서 다른사람들의 의견이 이해가 잘 안되시는거 같은데....님이 핵심에서 벗어나셨습니다.

@WooaDady 핵심 벗어 나신 것 같습니다. HW3 하드웨어 한계로 인해 리트로핏 업그레이드를 제공한다는 거죠.

주변에 보면 사기라고 주장하는 오너분들의 실망감은 이해하지만, 기술적 한계적인 부분에 대한 책임을 지고, HW3 FSD 차량에 한하여 AI4+ 카메라 레트로핏을 제공하겠다라고 선언을 했는데. 이해를 못하시는 분들이 많은거 같음. 비감독형 구현이 하드웨어상 어렵기 때문에 업그레이드 해준다는데.. 사기라고? 😂 그리고 지금 사트에 감독형 FSD v14 부러워서 편파 애기나오는 시점에 HW3 6월말에 동일한 버전 압축해서 넣어 준다고 두번이나 언급했는데. 써보지도 않고 성능 떨어진 버전 준다고 이미 사기라고 한다. 😂 같은 주주, 오너라도 기업에 비전과 해당 소식에 관심만 가져도 정확한 워딩이 구분되리라 보는데.. 왜 딴소리하는 궁금하네요. 오늘 어닝콜에 질의에 대한 답변을 정리하면 비감독 FSD 구현을 위해선 모든 HW3 차량은 AI4업그레이드를 해야만 합니다. 이는 로보택시 사업에 연장선 사항이기 때문에 필요함. 결국 모든 테슬라 차량은 비감독 FSD 구현이 되어야 됨. 자율주행의 최우선은 안전이다. 만약 사고라도 난다면 더 오랜 시간이 걸리기 때문에 조심스럽게 접근하려고 노력중. 한번도 해보지 않은 일이기 때문에 완성 시점에 대한 예상은 쉽게 애기하기가 어러움. 다만 시간이 갈수록 빠른 대규모 학습을 통해 안전 데이터가 확보 되며 확률이 올라감. 초기 HW3 가 될거라 예상했으나, E2E AI 학습으로 전환후에 감독형까진 압축기술을 통해 구현이 가능한것으로 에시됨, 비감독은 현재 메모리폭 대역이 핵심인데 하드웨어 한계로 구현이 불가능하게 되었다. 이것은 해보지 않으면 예상할수도 없는일. 감독형 FSD는 구현이 가능함. (국내 사트 적용 버전) 6월말에 최종 v14버전을 압축하여 기능의 거의 유사한 Lite버전을 배포 하겠다. 비감독 버전이 완성 예상 시점 26년 연말인데, 안전성을 확보한 대규모 변환 시점은 27년 정도가 될거라 본다. AI4 모델에 v15 버전이 들어감. 비감독이 완성되면 HW3 FSD 차량에 AI4 컴퓨터 + 카메라 하드웨어 업그레이드 레트로핏을 제공 하겠다. 서비스 센터를 통해 교체는 너무 혼란 스럽고 복잡하기 때문에 빠르게 진행하기 위해 소규모 레트로핏 공장 또는 임의 시설을 활용 할것으로 예상. 더 편리한 빙법은 이미 완성된 신형 차량을 트레이드인을 통해 할인 된 가격으로 제공할 예정이다. 결국, 어떻게든 책임을 지고 비감독형을 구현하기 위해 단행하겠다는 의지를 이번 어닝콜에서 들었습니다. 실망보단 격려를 해주자고 애기하고 싶습니다. 포기하지않고 끝까지 노력한 결과 세상에 처음으로 대규모 피지컬 ai가 등장하게 된 것 입니디. 완전 자울주행은 세상에 없던 기술입니다..

@HanChulYong 마지막으로 23년 3월 인수 할 당시 롱레인지 7000만원 초반대에 FSD까지 일시불로 구매 했는데, FSD광고 아니었으면 5시리즈나 E클래스 구매했겠죠.

@HanChulYong 그리고 레트로핏이나 트레이드인도 아직 확정된 보상이 아니라 검토 수준인데, 이걸 근거로 책임을 다하고 있다고 보긴 어렵습니다. 기술이 어려운 건 이해하지만, 그 리스크를 소비자가 감당해야 하는 건 아니죠. 그래서 사기라는 표현까지 나오는 것도 완전히 비논리적이라고 보긴 힘듭니다.

@DennisCW_ 새로운 테슬라는 무료로 줘야지? HW3는 테슬라가 도로 가져가고

Actually: Just Give HW3 Tesla Owners a Lifetime FSD "Subscription" on their New Tesla 🥸 Win win

@larsdegrauw 우선 법적으로 소송을 진행해야 테슬라가 화해조정방법으로 움직이지, 가만히 있으면 우리차는 폐차될것입니다

It's clear: Tesla promised me (and many) hardware 3 users a FSD ready machine, Elon confirms here clearly that the hardware will never be able to do FSD His retrofit and upgrade promises with local factories sound like a very long road, in the meantime HW3 cars will degrade in value and people will have to gamble on the promises of a man who has lied to them before I think HW3 users have a real claim for full refund for the hardware part of the car, as it does not deliver on one of the core promises.

@ElectricRaph 너 HW3 차량 소유하고 있는거 맞지?

To all HW3 owners, I understand your frustration. I see many people saying that it’s a lie from Elon and Tesla, etc., but I believe rather that I wouldn’t call it a lie. I’d rather say it’s an overestimation on the part of Elon and Tesla. We also have to remember that vision-based autonomous driving is a new technology, so it’s difficult to predict. Nevertheless, I still find it honest of them to propose several solutions to remedy it.

@SebAaltonen 넌 더하기 빼기가 안되는구나? 속아서 샀는데 또 한대를 더 사라고????????

Musk also said that they are going to give a discount for a new car for those who bought FSD for HW3. Simple solution: Get the $8000 FSD package for free on a new car purchase if you bought FSD for an old HW3 car. That would settle most cases. No extra cost for Tesla.

@cb_doge @ArtificialAnlys 그래서 난 퍼플렉시티로 검색하고 결과물만 클로드나 챗지피티한테 생성함. 어차피 그록은 퍼플렉시티랑 똑같은데 가격만 비싸니깐

• xAI Grok → 17% hallucination • OpenAI GPT-5.5 → 86% hallucination Grok delivers the lowest hallucination rate in the market and 5.1 times lower than ChatGPT.

@buccocapital 난 첫번째 답변 이후 “너 내 사용량 줄일려고 일부러 그러는거지?”라고 입력함

Claude is so fucking bad right now Honestly I don't even look at the first response I just say "Hey man that fucking stunk can you try again but actually put some effort into it?" And then it does the actual work

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla. Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice: Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD." He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation. Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done. BUT IT DIDN'T Those promises are now officially broken. The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4. Not a refund or a free upgrade... A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla. Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS. But that's not even the worst part. Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety. What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe. How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake. Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating: Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right? WRONG Dig into the actual filing: The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs." They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation. GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap. Let me put that in perspective: 3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings. All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet... 3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year. So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion. The math doesn't work. They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares. The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time: Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again). They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought. Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year. Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline. And here's what really kills the bull case... The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it: Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation. That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion. And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment. Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15. Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not. The stock is $387. So what exactly are you paying for? You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone. I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981. And I am telling you: Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career. THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC

@wholemars 야! 이미 HW3가 무감독 fsd가 안된다는건 어떤 버전이 됐던지간에 형편 없는 성능일거라고 인정한건데 뭐가 기대가 돼?? 속아서 똑같은 돈을 지불하고 저성능 기능을 받는건데 기대가 돼?

So excited for AI3 cars to get V14 lite this summer!!

@MissJilianne 트레이드인 형편 없어요. 고객 돈으로 자신들의 실수를 메우려는것이 트레이드 인입니다. 하드웨어 교체? 10년이 걸릴지 20년이 걸릴지도 모르는 일입니다. 그동안 우리차는 사고가 나거나 폐차 되겠죠...아직 안갯속입니다.

Tesla sent me an email informing me their trade-in estimate has increased for my Model S Plaid. No thanks, I want the Unsupervised Full Self-Driving I paid for over three years ago.

@CharlesMullins2 한국은 규제때문에 결국 막을테고 과학자들이 미국으로 건너가서ㅜ기술을 현실화 할테니 걱정마세요😄

🚨 BREAKING: South Korea just held fusion plasma at 100 million°C for 102 seconds. That’s hotter than the Sun’s core. And more than double the previous record. Read that again. Human-made star fire… held stable for over a minute and a half. This matters because fusion has always had one brutal enemy: confinement time. Getting plasma hot is hard. Keeping it stable is harder. That’s where reactors fail. This is why 102 seconds matters. It hints we’re moving from “fusion is possible”… toward “fusion may scale.” No carbon. No long-lived waste. Fuel from seawater. If confinement keeps improving, this could become one of civilization’s turning points. Question: Are we watching the first real engineering steps toward star power on Earth? Follow me for frontier physics before it hits textbooks.

@iamtobi 업그레이드를 위해 공장까지 따로 지어야 한다는데 실현 가능성이 있을거 같아??

Elon just confirmed there will be an Upgrade for HW3 cars to reach HW4 (computer and cameras) 🔥⚡️👏🏻

@shawncarelli @elonmusk 이 얘기 사실 예전부터 계속 나왔던 거잖아. FSD 일시불 구매자는 무료로 해줄 수도 있다고. 더 답답한 건, 언제 해주겠다는 명확한 약속도 없음. 계획이 있는 건지, 그냥 시간 끌다가 넘어가려는 건지 알 수가 없잖아.

FSD HW3 owners will be upgraded to HW4! @elonmusk

@naturevideos 피라냐는 먹을수 있어?

This is how locals catch piranhas in South America..

@teslascope 그리고 더 황당한 건, 3년 된 차를 왜 바꿔야 하냐는 거지. 고장 난 것도 아니고, 제조사가 제공 못 하는 기능 때문에 교체를 해야 되는 상황이면 그건 소비자 책임이 아니잖아. 할인 조금 해주는 걸로 퉁칠 문제가 아니라, 이런 경우는 그냥 소비자한테 비용 전가하는 거지.

"How will HW3 vehicles reach Unsupervised Full Self-Driving?" – HW3 does not have the capability to achieve Unsupervised Full Self-Driving. – Customers will be offered a discounted trade-in and the ability to upgrade the Autopilot hardware and cameras.

@teslascope 솔직히 HW3 차량 트레이드인 한번 넣어보면 답 바로 나옴. 가격 보면 진짜 말도 안 나올 수준일걸. 애초에 차를 현금으로 산 사람이 얼마나 된다고… 대부분 할부인데, 할부 끝나기도 전에 또 새 할부로 갈아타라는 구조잖아. 이건 그냥 계속 빚 돌려막는 느낌임.

@GerberKawasaki 그러게 되지도 않는걸 15000$에 팔았잖아? 원인과 결과야. 그나마 책임지는것이 기업의 책임이지

Not a good conference call for current tesla owners. Basically HW3 customers are screwed. They sold about 3 mil of these teslas and about 285k have FSD. So the liability is in the billions. $TSLA