Mercek

I made an exit strategy so you don't have too! So my main take away from the last bull run is you go into the bull market not knowing what is going on and you will assume you will figure out the top and sell perfectly. This does not happen even and you will get burnt. I did and i'm sure that many of you will have had similar experiences. There are so many ways to exit the market, here is just one idea I had that makes sense to me. Please change this as you see fit to taylor your portfolio. Step 1, Making a duplicate portfolio tracker: On coingecko/ coinmarketcap make a new portfolio. This will be important for this strategy. Once you start selling (this point will be discussed), you will not mark the sales on this duplicate portfolio. Only on your main one. This is so we can accurately track the % we should be selling. Step 2, when to start selling: This is not an exact science, however for the purpose of this I have chosen one month after the previous break of ATH. Feel free to change this however the rest of the data below will use this. Step 3: Estimating the length of the bull run: Below I will show the length of the last 3 bull runs from the point where they break the ATH. 2013, the break of ATH to top is 272 days. This was a very volatile bull markets however we don't expect this due to the size the market has grown too. 2017, the shortest of the three at 230 days. 2021, the longest bull run lasting 348 days. So here we have 3 bull markets to work with. Obviously we have to assume that something will change majorly for the next rally, however we use what we have to give ourselves the best chances. Average of the 3 = (348 + 230 + 272) / 3 = 283 days. Minus one month which we wait before we start to sell will equal 262. That is what we will be working with. Step 4, the strategy: First of all I will be working on the assumption that you are trying to sell 100% of the portfolio. 100% / 262 = 0.38%. This is what percent needs to be sold per day to achieve 100% sold using our time estimate. Now, you should not sell everyday 0.38%. Once you wait the month after the previous ATH breaks, you start counting percent, each day accumulating. E.G. day 1 = 0.38, day 2 = 0.76 etc. You let this build until a green green day which you sell. Could be worth waiting for the largest moves (+10-20%). Once you sell this amount, the count resets to 0. So why did we create the second portfolio? Because if you are selling the ratio in your portfolio would change. For example, if you hold 1 BTC and sell 50%, then the next day you sell 50% again, you would have 0.25 BTC. Not sold 100%. However, if you keep one portfolio not touching it when you sell, you can put in say what is 5% in dollars and the next day 5% again, and you would have sold 10%. Otherwise the maths will get extremely complicated. Once you get toward the end, you might have to sell on some red days. Don't be afraid! This is very important if you want to take full profits, so in the last say 100 days be less picky about you sell days. We always speak about DCAing in so use this strategy if you would like to DCA out :). NFA and Always DYOR!

if it wasnt for all the ai investment, and if those 5 6 big us companies werent just circulating money between themselves, the us wouldve been in recession already let a recession show up and you’ll see what central banks actually do five years ago they were saying no need to hike inflation is under control so what happened tradfi is stuck in a loop, you cant talk on autopilot here

@WorldOfMercek energy shocks don’t really push central banks into easing if anything they get more cautious because inflation risk rises and the policy tradeoff gets uglier

Attacks on oil and natural gas infrastructure in regions that are critical to global energy supply, especially in the Middle East, are not just routine geopolitical developments for markets. Moves like this can directly trigger supply shocks and create pressure that spreads across the world through energy prices. A contraction on the supply side like this has the potential to slow economies down while also pushing central banks back toward more expansionary and aggressive monetary policy. And that combination can create the foundation for a type of inflationary wave that is historically rare. The most important part of these periods is how markets actually price them. Markets often move higher in the middle of fear. Just like during the pandemic, prices can keep rising even when risk perception is at its peak, and most people struggle to believe the move for a long time. As a result, those who are still outside the market hesitate to enter because uncertainty feels too high. And those who are already inside start looking for the exit on the first pullback. That is what makes this one of the hardest psychological phases of a market, but also one of the most opportunistic.

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Realized losses (SMA7) are extremely elevated. → 6x higher than the COVID crash → 2x higher than the FTX collapse But this is not because we are going through a similar crisis. This is happening because over $600B of liquidity that was accumulated above $100K is starting to change hands. In other words, distribution. Bitcoin is moving from weak hands to strong hands.

The Fed is announcing its rate decision today. This could end up being one of the most important and most difficult meetings of the year. Right now the Fed is sitting in the middle of two major forces. → Geopolitical risk tied to the US Iran situation → The possibility of inflation starting to heat up again So this meeting is not just about rates. It is also about how the Fed plans to deal with both of these pressures going forward. Market expectation is mostly dovish. Why? → Powell’s recent communication style → The stronger narrative that the US economy has stabilized → The sense of geopolitical relief and strength signaling after the Venezuela process → The way markets have adapted faster than expected to tariffs and the new setup But a hawkish tone is still very possible. Especially because of two things. → Oil → Fertilizer Both matter more than people think because they can quietly rebuild inflation pressure from the base. So there is still a real chance the Fed leans into the idea that inflation could harden again. And we already know Powell’s usual style. He avoids giving clear direction. He stretches the process. And he keeps pushing clarity further out. That is why tonight is not only about the decision. The tone will matter just as much as the rate itself. We will see. Just remember: Everyone sees the decision. Only the prepared catch the direction.

@voicehavefun lmao 😭😂

@WorldOfMercek the first real signal of recovery?😉

What metric gives the first real signal of recovery? There are hundreds of metrics you can use to track Bitcoin. But when it comes to spotting a real recovery, one of the most important is the share of new investors entering with new liquidity. If I asked what a real move higher needs, you’d probably say two things: 1. New money 2. New investors And the nice part is that this is actually very easy to track on-chain. 👇 After both the COVID crash and the FTX collapse, you can see this metric slowly starting to rise again. That’s important, because real recoveries usually do not begin with price alone. They begin with participation. And yes, I do think we’ll eventually see this kind of rise again. But for now, I think it’s still too early to say that signal is here.

There’s also another point people should keep in mind. Bitcoin did not go through a crisis like COVID this time. It also did not go through a shock event like the FTX collapse. This decline happened mostly within normal market dynamics, without a true systemic crisis behind it. That matters. Because in a real black swan event, I do think the market could revisit the 50K area. But unless something genuinely breaks, there is still a strong wall around 60K, and so far it has held. In my view, only a major crisis is strong enough to break that wall. And if you also consider that the U.S. midterm elections are getting closer in November 2026, the probability of that kind of crisis arguably fades a bit more with each passing week. So for now, my view is simple: → the true recovery signal is new investor participation → that signal has not clearly arrived yet → but this is also not the same kind of breakdown we saw during past crisis-driven selloffs Thanks for reading 🙏

One signal I usually watch for is early network? DEMAND. @diamante_io reportedly had 1.5M+ users interacting with the testnet before mainnet launch, which says a lot about the curiosity around quantum-secure infrastructure. With mainnet now live, the interesting question is how quickly developers and users actually start building on it. Post-quantum security is a niche today, but that might not stay the case forever.

@MEXC_Official Prediction markets are quietly becoming the best way to trade narratives Nice to see MEXC stepping in early and actually leaning into this meta 👏

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@okx @Uniswap @Dune @Alchemy @jasonklau this lineup is crazy, def tuning in!!

Introducing Agent States - a new series exploring the future of agentic money. Featuring the best AI minds in crypto from @Uniswap, @Dune, @Alchemy, plus our CIO @Jasonklau, who's bringing something big. 🗓 Mar 17, 8:30AM PT Join us: x.com/i/spaces/1mjgn…

Google Trends is one of the simplest ways to read crypto investor emotion. And the 400 level looks more important than most people realize. In every bull cycle, crypto-related search interest has expanded. 2017 peaked around 450. 2021 pushed to 580. 2025 went above 750. Each cycle pulled in more attention than the last. Right now, we’re sitting around 300. That tells me retail still isn’t fully awake. And when you look at the last 3 bull cycles, 400+ stands out as a key threshold. At the start of major bullish phases, crypto search interest tends to move above 400 pretty quickly. So if you care about sentiment, that’s a level worth watching. What crypto-related term do you search most often on Google?

ETH went from $1,400 to $80. That was a 17.5x drawdown for anyone who bought the top. Did Ethereum fail? No. SOL went from $260 to $8. That was a 32.5x drawdown for anyone who bought the top. Did Solana fail? No. BTC went from $20,000 to $3,000. Then from $69,000 to $15,000. Did Bitcoin fail? No. Every market has examples like this. Only fools judge an asset by the pain of people who entered badly and managed risk even worse. At some point you have to stop blaming the market for your own failure.

I stopped trusting trending lists the moment I learned they could be bought. That’s when I started relying more on @GeckoTerminal. What I usually check now is the Trending Pools / New Pools section. It shows on-chain activity across DEXs, so you can quickly see which pools are actually gaining traction rather than just being promoted. When you pair that with the raw liquidity and transaction data, it becomes much easier to separate genuine momentum from noise. 🔗 If you’re trading on-chain regularly, it’s worth exploring yourself: geckoterminal.com/explore/new-cr…

Ref: EUCLIDEAN218495 🔗 OpenSea opensea.io/collection/pla… 🔗 MagicEden magiceden.io/collections/po…

The gates are now open wider at @EuclidProtocol! 155K Passport holders now have access to the Private Mainnet: swaps, liquidity, yield. What’s interesting to me is the design: one liquidity pool across 50+ chains without bridging or fragmented liquidity. They’re also rolling out Euclid Swap and Euclid Launch, which should make the ecosystem more complete over time. Phase 2 feels like the moment where early LPs position before the crowd. Once public mainnet opens and liquidity floods in, yields won’t look the same. Minting is closed, so the only way in now is the Euclid Passport on secondary. Mainnet + TGE expected H1 2026 For those interested, passport links + my code in first reply 👇🏻

@RemLiquidity love seeing you actually listen and adjust fast removing that cooldown clears up so much confusion feedback loop like this is how real platforms get built

After the launch and the huge influx of traders joining Solana Funded, we’ve been keeping a close eye on feedback coming from the community. First off, we really appreciate everyone who has taken the time to share their thoughts. Solana Funded was built for traders in the trenches, so hearing what the community thinks about the product genuinely matters to us. One concern we’ve seen come up a few times is around the large win cooldown. Some traders thought that after hitting a big win their account had been locked, which understandably caused some confusion. In reality, the cooldown just meant that you had completed your trading day. The idea behind this rule actually came from a good place. In trading, it’s very common for people to hit a big win and then keep pushing their luck, overtrade, and end up giving those gains straight back. The cooldown was originally put in place to protect that progress and stop traders from overtrading once they’d had a strong day, carrying that progress into the next trading day. That said, Solana Funded is built around giving traders freedom, and we never want people to feel restricted or confused when using the platform. Because of the feedback we’ve received, we’ve decided to remove the large win cooldown rule so traders can manage their accounts however they choose after a strong day. We’ll keep listening, keep improving, and keep building this with the community. Appreciate everyone who’s been part of the launch so far. This is just the start.

I wouldn’t call it “decoupling” just yet On one side you have an index made up of 500 companies, which naturally moves slower and more smoothly. On the other side you have BTC alone, a much higher-beta asset. Expecting both to move in perfect sync isn’t really the cleanest comparison to begin with. In fact, if instead of the full S&P 500 you compared BTC to a higher-beta pocket inside it, like software, the behavior would probably look a lot closer. That’s the real point: SPX usually expresses the same macro stress more slowly, while BTC tends to price it faster and more violently. So sometimes BTC breaks first, and sometimes it can look relatively strong while the index is still rolling over. But that doesn’t automatically mean true decoupling. Most of the time it’s just the same stress being priced at different speeds.

@WorldOfMercek btc holding strong while spx bleeds. decoupling confirmed? looks like btc is finally acting as a true store of value not just a risk asset. correlation is breaking down frens

One interesting pattern: BTC can sometimes stay surprisingly resilient vs the S&P 500, even during risk-off phases. I went back and marked the closest historical analog windows where this happened 👇 Top: BTC Bottom: S&P 500