XAU 🧲

Gold dipped to $4527 and has rebounded toward $4545. Key support sits around $4518–$4513. A confirmed break below this zone could open further downside toward $4500–$4480. On the other hand, if support holds, gold is likely to recover and retest the $4560–$4580 range.

Nothing too surprising in the preliminary statement—the Fed’s message still shows labor market conditions remain soft, but not much has changed compared to the previous meeting.

30 minutes from now, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will say his final “Good afternoon.”

The main disagreement centered on language suggesting the Fed remains open to future rate adjustments depending on economic data and risks.

Governor Stephen Miran again dissented, supporting a 0.25% rate cut, while the other three dissenting votes came from the Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas Fed presidents.

The Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged, with no surprises.

Those three agreed with keeping rates unchanged, but opposed adding any “easing signal” to the policy statement at this stage.

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He stressed that this is not true free passage, but a system where Iran controls who can use the international shipping route and how much they must pay.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared unconvinced, arguing that this so-called “reopening” would still require ships to seek Iran’s permission and potentially pay fees, with non-compliance risking attacks.

THE WHITE HOUSE CONFIRMS PRESIDENT TRUMP AND THE NATIONAL SECURITY TEAM HAVE DISCUSSED IRAN’S PROPOSAL

Never backs down. For America. 🇺🇸🇺🇸

Goldman Sachs raised Brent’s 2026 year-end target to $90 from $80 as Persian Gulf disruptions persist. Invesco sees $80 as the floor. Tight supply, falling inventories, and delayed recovery keep oil supported.

Trump opens Hormuz but keeps Iran under blockade → market sees partial de-escalation. Oil upside is capped as supply risk eases, while gold rises on lingering uncertainty. Overall: mixed signals, gold supported, oil struggles to break higher.

Vice President JD Vance gives an update in Pakistan: "The simple fact is that we need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon, and they will not seek the tools that would enable them to quickly achieve a nuclear weapon."

New York Times: Iran struggles to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as it cannot locate all deployed mines. Tehran lacks the specialized equipment and capability to safely clear the remaining mines, leaving the waterway dangerous for shipping despite efforts to lift the blockade.

UPDATE: Markets turn green, oil drops back below $100. Iran says Lebanon is part of the ceasefire, warns it will exit if strikes continue. U.S. & Israel deny this—Donald Trump urged Benjamin Netanyahu to scale back strikes. Israel seeking direct talks with Lebanon ASAP.

Another 2 setups: 600 pips & 400 pips. #GOLD #XAUUSD #fxtrading