xellirk.ethᵍᵐ

Bearish sentiment is through the roof: Median short interest in Russell 3000 stocks is up to 4.3%, the highest in 15 years. This is now 1.0 percentage point above the 2022 bear market levels. At the same time, short Interest in the energy sector ETF, $XLE, is up to the highest since the 2008 Financial Crisis. Short interest in the sector has DOUBLED over the last few weeks, posting its most rapid jump this century. All while put options volume in the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, surged to 8.6 million contracts, the highest since "Liberation Day" in April 2025. Conditions are ripe for a short squeeze.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 $4.3 trillion mortgage provider Fannie Mae to accept crypto-backed mortgages, WSJ reports.

BREAKING: President Trump says Iranian negotiators are "begging the US to make a deal" while they "publicly state that they are only looking at our proposal." "They better get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is no turning back, and it won't be pretty," Trump says.

🗣️ "Before an announcement by President Trump, unusual activity takes place." Chief economist and head of economic research of the Gulf Research Center in Riyadh John Sfakianakis calls for an investigation into billions of dollars of trading taking place before President Trump's announcements on the Iran war. ＠SkyYaldaHakim | trib.al/ymQU8O4

JUST IN - The U.S. has passed, through Pakistan, a 15-point plan to Iran aimed at ending the war in the Middle East — NYT

The "one-month ceasefire" situation: Israeli media is now reporting that US envoys Witkoff and Kushner are preparing for a one-month ceasefire with Iran. This ceasefire will be utilized to "hold talks" as the war nears the end of its 4th week. But, will Iran accept? It has become increasingly clear that Iran's primary source of leverage in this war is their ability to dictate the narrative in capital markets. If a ceasefire is announced, driving treasury yields and oil prices lower, Iran loses a significant portion of their bargaining power. This points to further rejection of peace talks by Iran. However, it is now clear that there is a lot happening behind the scenes and the war appears to be closer to its end than its beginning. We expect immense volatility ahead.

Absolutely incredible: Minutes after the 10Y Note Yield rose to 4.43%, US officials said peace talks with Iran could come as soon as Thursday. However, yields continue to hold as skepticism over peace talks has grown, with the 10Y Note Yield now at 4.40%. Once again, we cannot afford the 10Y Yield nearing 5%.

JUST IN - Pentagon to order, within the next hours, 3,000 troops of the Army's elite 82nd Airborne Division to deploy to the Middle East to "support" the Iran War — WSJ

JUST IN - Germany's Volkswagen will reach an agreement with the Israeli "Iron Dome" manufacturer to switch from the automotive business to the missile defense business — FT

*US TO ORDER 3,000 82ND AIRBORNE SOLDIERS TO MIDDLE EAST : WSJ

Just 15 minutes before Donald Trump's Truth Social post about 'talks' with Iran, there was an odd peak of market activity – did some know what he was about to say? Sky's @EdConwaySky reports Live updates: trib.al/MOtUYsz

The spike in oil prices caused by the war in Iran has led markets to price in rate hikes from the ECB and Bank of England, with the BoE potentially raising rates four times this year

SHELL CEO WARNS IRAN WAR COULD HIT FUEL SUPPLIES Shell CEO Wael Sawan says the Iran conflict is tightening fuel supplies, with jet fuel already affected, diesel next, and gasoline at risk ahead of the summer driving season. Europe could see shortages by April, and South and Northeast Asia are already feeling pressure. Shell is advising governments on demand cuts, stockpile use, and alternative purchases. A recent Iranian missile strike also hit Shell’s Pearl facility in Qatar, though the site remains secure with no injuries.

The Bond Market doesn't believe the Pump UST 10yr Yield ramps back up to 4.37% and the Yield Curve continues to flatten = #Quad3

MARKETS: $BTC climbs back to $71,000, outperforming gold amid Middle East tensions. $550M in mostly shorts liquidated as open interest declines, suggesting rally isn't fueled by new leverage.

BREAKING: Over $240 million worth of levered crypto positions are liquidated in 60 minutes after President Trump threatens to "obliterate" Iran's power plants.

The S&P 500 is now down 7.6% from its January peak. Is that a lot? Not at all. This is right in line with the median correction off an all-time high since the March 2009 low. We see a decline of this amount or more during most calendar years. That's the price of admission.

Current headline that came out: IRAN UNWILLING TO DISCUSS HORMUZ WHILE UNDER ATTACK: OFFICIAL All Trump has to do to close the market w/ a bid is say "We are pausing our operations while we negotiate - we'll give them one shot and one shot only otherwise we will continue" This could easily be the headline that changes it all and be prepared for. Just depends if Baron loads his 0DTE first or not.

JUST IN - Chuck Norris dead at 86 — Variety

Metals rotating int Crypto. Never thought it would be triggered by such a negative event. Pure sell the news and rotation.