Lars "Xioteer" Longpiece

@dunik_7 Man that dumb intro turned me so off i can't even read the rest.

this is a genuinely underrated approach most people copy whales blindly and then wonder why they're losing the whole point is to filter by categories where they actually dominate 850% ROI sounds aggressive, but Polymarket is at that stage where early adopters are skimming the cream while the market is still inefficient priority mode with same-block execution is a game changer if it works as advertised the difference between 29¢ and 41¢ entry is literally the difference between profit and loss saved, gonna test this with a small bankroll

@Hrundel75 @_dominatos It 100% doesn not trade. never trust a fancy made UI that has an increasing P&L within seconds. Also, Mumbai and Cape Town that are shown in the vid do not even exist on Polymarket. It's LARP. Don't fall for this shit

@_dominatos It trades weather all over the world?

built a bot that trades weather on polymarket it collects a ton of weather data and claude analyzes it all to place bets across 16 cities still collecting more data to improve accuracy if it actually works will be open sourcing old versions of the bot for anyone who wants to learn

@0xwhrrari @_dominatos And it's LARP

@_dominatos 16 cities at once is serious coverage thats a whole weather trading desk honestly

@_dominatos Nice LARP. Neither Mumbai, nor Cape Town exist on Polymarket.

@polymarketbots @Polygun_ @thejayden @Polymarket Honestly, I am rather humble and admit when I struggle (like becoming profitable with my bot) than being whatever you are. 🤡

@Xioteer @Polygun_ @thejayden @Polymarket You said it yourself, you weren't as smart as you thought you were 👋

@polymarketbots @Polygun_ @thejayden @Polymarket

@Xioteer @Polygun_ @thejayden @Polymarket I need some of that confidence you have to give advice to people when you dont even know the difference between a VPN and a VPS .

@polymarketbots @thejayden @Polygun_ Omg, that comment is completely out of context my dude. What a clown🤣🤣🤡

BNB Markets spotted on @Polymarket 🚀 polymarket.com/event/bnb-up-o…

@Xioteer This is live real trading

I created a bot on Polymarket out of pure boredom By Sunday evening, it had paid my rent $1,870 for 36 hours The weirdest thing is, it never tried to predict anything > No models > No indicators > No AI magic Just speed. Here's what happened: While everyone is watching the charts on Binance, Polymarket reacts more slowly, seconds are enough So I gave Claude from Anthropic one task: Don't try to be clever. Just be faster than a human. That's all The mechanics were ridiculously simple: > Monitor price spikes on Binance > Second BTC spike > 0.4% -> instantly buy YES/NO on Polymarket > Exit when the odds normalize No prediction. Just catching the lag First hour - nothing. Second - $12. Third - $48 Then the American session opened, and volatility increased sharply The bot started making trades every 3-4 minutes > $15 > $22 > $18 > $31 At some point, I realized something unpleasant: it worked better when I wasn't watching it, so I closed my laptop When I returned, it had already made $640, making 27 trades overnight It didn't suffer a single loss because it wasn't guessing, but acting when the outcome was already clear Don't predict the future, trade with a delay

@kisoid82 No, to prove that this is not a LARP, what it most certainly is. Slop Tweets

@Xioteer So that you can follow me and copy me?

@Xioteer bro, this isn’t LARP

yesterday a friend messaged me: "i have 48 hours before the lawyers find out. you need to see this" he worked as a data engineer at a hedge fund in Zurich. he got fired on friday on monday, his vpn was still working he downloaded 3 jupyter notebooks before his access got cut one of them was called polymarket_edge_model_v4_FINAL.ipynb THE CORE IDEA: the fund doesn’t predict the outcome of the event. they predict the PANIC of other traders when the price moves sharply, 80% of players close at a loss. the fund takes the other side "liquidity vacuum trade" TRIGGER — 3 conditions at the same time: / price >2% in 90 seconds / volume >3x the average / 70%+ of orders on one side the bot trades AGAINST the crowd expected_price = EMA(200) × (1 + sentiment_offset) deviation >12% = entry stop at 25% take profit at EMA ±3% win rate: 73.2% across 1,847 trades. sharpe 2.7 i rewrote it in python over the weekend. 172 lines first week: +$412 from $1,500 the formulas are above. claude will handle the rest.

@zostaff Anything is more useful than what you are trying to pull.

@Xioteer okay bro, you are cool go do something useful for once

I BUILT THE FIRST BOT THAT ARBITRAGES BETWEEN POLYMARKET AND KALSHI SIMULTANEOUSLY $100 -> $5,214 in 24 hours 847 trades, zero directional risk polymarket and kalshi are the two biggest prediction markets both trade the same events but their pricing algorithms are different which means their prices drift apart the gaps are small - 3 to 8 c, but they happen constantly if you trade that difference automatically fast thousands of times the math starts working for you the bot spots the gap in milliseconds buys YES on polymarket at $0.61 sells YES on kalshi at $0.67 while people are still looking at the chart the bot already closed the trade and moved on they say arbitrage in prediction markets is impossible they say the spreads are too small they say the market is efficient $5,214 in one night says otherwise

@zostaff Dude. The "Bitcoin Price today" are inherently different to each other. This whole dashboard is a fucking joke. I can go into detail with what is wrong with it. But one thing I can say. NO FUCKING trader would use this garbage dashboard. 100% Larping

@Xioteer as you say, bro, you know better

@Conservativgal1 @DiligentDenizen Probably white nazis behind it!

@DiligentDenizen Could be false flag. Either way, prayers for those injured.

@_21Nad @raysonsiosol

@raysonsiosol It isn't your daily reading but you put out misinformation about what you know nothing about I should add value to your ai generated slop misinformation?? Lmao how ever you wanna call it, gambling/prediction, it's what it's only unprofitable folks complained on the tl lol.

prediction markets are just gambling for people who think they're too smart to gamble and you're not the house. polymarket had $21.5B in volume last year you know who made money? • the platform (fees on every trade) • the whales (moving markets with size) • the insiders (announcement of announcement) you know who didn't? retail traders who think they're smarter than the crowd. "but i'm just pricing in probability" everyone thinks THEY'RE the exception. "i study the markets, i understand odds" the polymarket leaderboard says otherwise. top 10 traders control like 40% of accurate predictions everyone else is just feeding the machine. if you're not moving $100k+ per position, you're not influencing anything you're just hoping your $69 bet on "will eth hit $2k by friday" is smarter than the guy with $500k riding on the same outcome avoid prediction markets unless you're the whale. or just admit you like gambling and go to a casino the house always wins, and on polymarket, you're not the house thoughts?