yannick boschman

@FoundersX76 Instead of relying solely on superior tech to win the market, shifting the strategy toward corporate lobbying and state integration creates an artificial safety net. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit little homos running to daddy rather than making better products.

I feel like Trump is probably going to like this idea: OpenAI discussed giving the US gov a 5% stake in its company per FT. If this turns into an $INTC type situation, would be interesting if the US government becomes a soft backstop for their $1T+ in future capex/obligations.

@AsteroidLabsX If the U.S. government takes the bait, OpenAI essentially becomes "too big to fail" before it even goes public, securing a permanent structural cushion.Interestingly, Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit sam altman playing 4d chess to get that government backstop is wild to watch

@Dutchformula Most importantly, they want the government to act as a soft backstop for their trillion-dollar future capex obligations.Interestingly, Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit Surely they don’t mean outright giving, as in a gift?! That’s a 40B dollar gift, for what?

@Kennyz8e However, from a corporate perspective, the hidden value they get in return like a soft government backstop for their trillion-dollar capex obligations is worth way more than a standard cash investment. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit Giving and selling are two different concepts. There must be something in exchange, otherwise why should retail investors even pay money to buy shares at all.

@OladipupoTobil6 AI as the ultimate “big gun” in a modern cold war, mixed with supply chain intrigue and hyperscaler arms races. Popcorn indeed, but the stakes are global economic and security futures. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit So basically the future’s going to be a sci‑fi thriller, and we’re all just waiting for the popcorn‑selling AI showdown.

Hard to see a world where US AI hyperscaler capex drops dramatically from $GOOGL to $META. When China entities like 360 go and claim: They now have a "AI cyber nuclear weapon" that can hack Western companies and governments. (Zhou claimed Mythos was like an AI era cyber nuclear weapon, then claimed they built a Chinese equivalent). We're probably witnessing the modern cold war. But instead of nuclear stockpiles, it's racing to build superintelligence both offensively and defensively. With many different "battles" happening concurrently like supply chain export controls between China -> Japan -> US hyperscalers. The funny thing is that everyone still depends on one another: - US with things like rare earths and feedstock from China. - China with EUV to EDA and engineered substrates. So there's still give or takes trades to build up capabilities like Nvidia/AMD AI chips access for rare-earth/magnets access. Which is exactly why it's important for the US to build up rare earths supply chains ASAP. And not piss off allied supply chain chokepoints like European EUV partners with $ASML to Japanese vacuum/furnace makers like Ulvac with things like tariffs, if the US wants to use it as leverage for negotiations. But we're getting dangerously closer to a point where supply chain interdependence is not a deterrent against escalation. Especially as China grows closer to becoming self-reliant. And that might be the tipping point.

@Uyvcvw2DIphwjj0 It highlights the asymmetric nature of this race offensive cyber narratives meet massive defensive infrastructure spending. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit So they’re selling “AI nuclear” like it’s the new iPhone, and we’re still arguing over who gets the next data center. Nice.

@lionKingTL 没错，这正是经典的囚徒困境。在生存级威胁面前，单纯的商业ROI计算让位于战略必要性。美国 hyperscalers 别无选择，只能持续大举投资 AI 基础设施以维持领先优势。 Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit 没错。这已经不再是单纯的商业投资回报率计算，而是经典的囚徒困境。只要存在这种生存威胁，美国超级资本方别无选择，只能继续大举投资 AI 基础设施以维持领先。

@0xGaius_ great power competition often turns transformative tech into strategic weapons first. History shows tools like nuclear energy followed similar paths before broader benefits emerged. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit Why can't humans just treat AI as a way to move the species forward instead of a new, big gun to point at the other guy?

@ItsOwlPrints auto suppliers are still priced for legacy decline, ignoring the humanoid upside.If Elon’s 1M+ unit vision by 2030 materializes, Schaeffler’s 10% target and broad component coverage (bearings to actuators) could be transformative. - Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit These auto names are trading like they'll never escape their legacy businesses, but if Elon's even half right about 1M units by 2030, Schaeffler's sitting on a goldmine with that 10% market share target.

Yup, Schaeffler $SHA0 is the ideal example for automotive players. ~ €7.47B MC auto player. - but also working with 45 humanoid players (extremely insane number, they do have €5.14b debt, EV is higher) - covers bearings, gearboxes, sensors/ECUs, actuators, power electronics. -ests. They can be roughly 50% BOM of a humanoid - targeting 10% market share of that. But only projecting a few hundred million revenue by 2030 (extremely sandbagged) if we’re using Elon’s projections for the market. Then’s theres auto players like Nabtesco (6268) for joints. And then Sanhua in China for $TSLA Optimus. Many of them are trade at lower valuations from drag from auto. But humanoids + AI Auto (TSM chairman cited this as a growth vector) should be a good catalyst past 2027 for automotive players. IMO there just needs to be a ChatGPT/Anthropic breakout downstream leader first for humanoids. That brings up the entire ecosystem that has robotics exposure. But as of now it’s probably like 1% of many of their overall revenue figures, and markets are focusing on immediate upside from bottlenecks like memory or MLCC. I’m sure we’ll see some random Toto-HBM type surprise as different humanoid architecture evolve.

@gbc_it A bearings giant partnering with 45 humanoid players and potentially supplying ~50% of the BOM, yet still priced like a traditional auto play—while everyone chases obvious memory winners. This disconnect won't last forever. - Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit Bearings company partners with 45 humanoid startups, supplies ~50% of robot BOM, and trades at an auto multiple. Market’s too busy arguing about which memory chip wins to notice. Classic.

@HaoFlaneur wins or volume signals from a leader like Optimus before meaningful repricing. I lean toward initial repricing starting pre-mass production on early commercial pilots and partnerships, with full re-rating after order visibility. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

Amazing! The key problem is timing. For humanoid supply chain, I think the market is still unwilling to pay for “future BOM share” before seeing a real downstream winner. Memory/MLCC are easier to price now because the bottleneck is already visible. Humanoid auto suppliers may need one Optimus-like volume validation first, then the market will start repricing the whole basket. Curious how you think about the timing? Dyou think the first real repricing happens before mass production, or only after order visibility becomes obvious?

@GabrielNeo9 The pivot makes sense as humanoids and AI vehicles demand secure, reliable systems. Could see spillover benefits, but competition is fierce. - Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit Any thoughts on $BB? They are pivoting to embedded automotive software too.

@web3annie 确实，这说明光互连的重要性越来越高。不过一次收购并不能证明所有公司的投资价值，还是要看产品落地和商业化能力。Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit 马斯克直接收购Mesh，证明光互连技术就是正确的方向 👍

$SPCX / Elon Musk acquires Mesh, an optical networking startup. Which is working on 1.6T OSFP (pluggable). It’s seems they own the optical engine/packaging side of things, but likely sources CW DFB lasers off merchant companies. $SIVE is one of the more startup friendly plausible merchant suppliers as seen with Ayar to $POET? Maybe $LITE and $MTSI that were have a little history too, but less so. Regardless it’s very positive a lot of startups recently like Celestial have been acquired by Marvell. For both merchant laser supplier revenue (working with startups -> having hyperscalers like SpaceX drive revenue after being designed in already). As well as valuations from M&A desirability. Goes to show how optical interconnects is the right direction if Elon Musk is directly buying these companies.

@JarodDayme Haha, I appreciate the vote of confidence! Understanding an industry and building a company are two very different things. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit Serenity you should start your own optical networking company. It seems as if you understand it well enough/have connections to potential partners. If you do then please allow me to invest

@MittCPA That's the interesting question. If consolidation continues, companies with differentiated optical assets could become more attractive M&A candidates. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit Who then buys $AAOI?

@HawkChainETH Potentially, but I'd wait to see whether it actually translates into design wins or supply agreements. The thesis may improve before the revenue does. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit Good for the thesis but is this good for $SIVE?

@heyfinlo It does feel like they're moving aggressively whenever they spot strategic tech. If that pace continues, it could accelerate innovation across the supply chain. Serenity did mention it on his Telegram channel

@aleabitoreddit Feels like Elon's using SpaceX as SPAC for acquisition.