Yield Gap Australia

@ipaddockapps @JohnDeereAUNZ Thanks for this positive feedback. We have had a range of responses (positive and negative) to our choice of colours.

Dunno how accurate this map is but the legend is BLOODY WONDERFUL #colourblindfriendly @JohnDeereAUNZ

@AmberB_C @ipaddockapps @JohnDeereAUNZ Thanks for the feedback @AmberB_C. We did select a colour blind friendly palette for these maps. We will look into this further for future developments.

@YieldGapAus this is how the #wheatcast would look to a person with Protanopia (red/green colour blindness). I used the free web colorblindsimulator.app and the result is definitely confusing, not much differentiation between yield kg/ha over 1500. If this map was made in R studio the viridisLite package includes colour blind friendly colour schemes that work well on maps.

This CSIRO #Wheatcast National wheat yield forecast is based on data to 1 Nov 25. Median expected yield is locked in @ 2.13 t/ha. With forecast national production @ 27.05 Mt. The map shows expected distribution of water-limited yields. For more see research.csiro.au/digiscape/digi…

This CSIRO #Wheatcast national wheat yield forecast is based on data to 15 Oct 25. Median expected yield is now 2.13 t/ha. With 12.7 Mha sown (ABARES est.) forecast production is 27.05 Mt. Map shows expected distribution of water-limited yields. For more - research.csiro.au/digiscape/digi…

This CSIRO #Wheatcast national wheat yield forecast is based on data to 1 Oct. Median expectation for 2025 is 2.24 t/ha. With 12.7 Mha sown (ABARES est.) forecast production is 28.5 Mt. Map shows expected distribution of water-limited yields. For more see research.csiro.au/digiscape/digi…

This CSIRO #Wheatcast national wheat yield forecast is based on data to 15 September. Median expectation for 2025 is 2.35 t/ha, with above average yields likely in all states. The map shows the median expected water-limited yields. For more details see research.csiro.au/digiscape/digi…

@agbyte_leet It’s a 15 year average. 100% is relative to the last 30 years of weather data from 1 Sept to harvest. It means that we predict an above average yield for each of those season finishes.

@YieldGapAus Great update, when you say 100% chance of above Ave yield, is that a 5yr rolling Ave? Or 10?

This mid-season CSIRO #Wheatcast national wheat yield forecast is based on data to 1 Sept. Median expectation for 2025 is 2.27 t/ha with a 100% chance of an above average yield. The map shows the median expected water-limited yields. For more details see research.csiro.au/digiscape/digi…

This mid-season CSIRO #Wheatcast national wheat yield forecast is based on data to 15 August. Median expectation for 2025 is 2.21 t/ha with a 91% chance of an above average yield. The map shows median expected water-limited yields. For more details see research.csiro.au/digiscape/digi…

@AaronHutcho @BenBoughton1 We put a lot of thought into the colour scheme. One key consideration is that it needs to be colourblind friendly. Otherwise we use the full range. Also, we provide median yields to 2 decimal places.

@YieldGapAus @BenBoughton1 They need a better contrasting colour scheme. Nearly enough fudge factor in colour to make them seem well correlated to actual yields all the time.

This mid-season CSIRO #Wheatcast national wheat yield forecast is based on data to 1 August. Median expectation for 2025 is 2.19 t/ha with an 86% chance of an above average yield. The map shows median expected water-limited yields. For more details see research.csiro.au/digiscape/digi…

@colbert_marty Just click on the link provided at the bottom of the original tweet.

@YieldGapAus Can I get a link to enable me to get a more precise insight to one or combination of the individual quadrants?

This early CSIRO #Wheatcast national wheat yield forecast is based on data to 1 June. Median expectation for 2025 is 2.08 t/ha with an 66% chance of an above average yield. The map shows the median expected water-limited yields. For more details see research.csiro.au/digiscape/digi…

@colbert_marty Yes

@YieldGapAus Sorry, is that 2025…?

@gsandral @CSIRO I'd have to look in the weeds to work out the impact of dry sowing but low soil moisture is a major factor on May 1. Keep in mind that we still have much uncertainty. The relative optimism for Wagga-Albury comes from climatology going forward.

@YieldGapAus @CSIRO Lots of crops sown dry between Wagga and Albury and thought that combined with low to no soil moisture would have been picked up in the mapping?

This early @CSIRO #Wheatcast national wheat yield forecast for 2024 is based on data to 1 May. Median expectation for 2025 is 2.22 t/ha with an 83% chance of an above average yield. The map shows expected median water-limited yields. For more details see research.csiro.au/digiscape/digi…

@Craigjcourela @CSIRO #Wheatcast is not using BoM forecasts. We simply use the last 30 years data, from today on, to predict 30 possible yield outcomes. The map shows the median value. Half the other years lie on each side of these values. At this stage there is a wide range of possible outcomes.

@YieldGapAus @CSIRO They have got us in a blue/ green colour we’ve had 25mm for the year so far, we’ve either got a lot of rain coming, which the bom aren’t forecasting or they’re way out of whack

In May, the major influence on #Wheatcast yield forecast is Plant Available Water (PAW). As you can see we are projecting low values in parts of SNSW, Vic, SA and WA. NNSW and QLD have near full profiles. Note that there is still a lot of uncertainty around yield predictions.

This @CSIRO #Wheatcast national wheat yield forecast is based on data to 15 Nov 2024. Final expectation for 2024 is 1.97 t/ha, which is 8% above the 15-year national average. The figure shows the evolution of expected median yields. For more see: research.csiro.au/digiscape/digi…

This @CSIRO #Wheatcast national wheat yield forecast for the 2024 wheat harvest is based on data to 1 Nov 2024. Median expectation is locked-in at 1.99 t/ha or 9% above the 15-year average. The map shows expected median water-limited yields. For more see: research.csiro.au/digiscape/digi…