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Shai played bad. Chet did awful. We got out rebounded by 21. Ajay didn’t show up and it still took them 2 overtime periods to beat OKC. Thunder fans I think we will be ok, we knew this series would be a battle. #thunderup
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🚨 𝗡𝗕𝗔 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗣𝗟𝗔𝗬 🏀
Dylan Harper under 10.5 points
$50 to someone who 𝗟𝗜𝗞𝗘𝗦/Comments when we 💰! Let me know if tailing 🔥
Posted hours early in Discord. Analysis⤵️
Dylan Harper and the Spurs face off against the Thunder here in game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. This is a big test for a young inexperienced team on the road in a tough environment. Specifically for the Rookie, Harper will be in the biggest game of his carer tonight with alot of pressure and high stakes.
Harper has met the occasion in plenty of games throughout the 1st and 2nd round, but those matchups against POR and MIN were much easier and more favorable for a handling gaurd.
For reference, the Blazers allowed the tied for the 2nd most pts to pick & roll handlers and the Timberwolves the most in the league this season. They also allowed the 4th and 10th most ppg in transition in the regular season (1st and 2nd most in playoffs).
This is key because those are the 2 primary ways Harper scores, via Pick & roll ball handler or in transition. This season Dylan has a 23.6% frequency as PnR handler and scores 27% of his pts in transition.
So Harper's numbers are drastically inflated due to favorable matchups in first 2 rounds of playoffs, he's also shooting out of his mind (56.6% in post-season). That is simply not sustainable, especially against an elite defense.
OKC allowed the fewest transition ppg and tied for the fewest pts per possession to pick & roll handlers this season. They also ranked 1st in defensive rating and gave up 2nd fewest paint ppg, 3rd fewest restricted area FG's.
This is key as Harper relies on interior scoring, 54% of his FG's are in the restricted area and he takes 63% of his total shots in the paint (69% in playoffs).
On the season with Wemby & Fox available vs top 10 paint, restricted area, and transition defenses, Harper averages only 8.4 ppg going under in 9/12 games. One over vs OKC due to an outlier 63% FG, another was because of to 67% on 3's and Vassell was out that game. Under in 2/4 vs Thunder, the two overs mentioned above he covered by just 1 bucket.
Also always blowout risk @ OKC which is the toughest environment to play in. I expect the Thunder defense to be elite tonight, we see the Spurs have a low 107.5 point team total. That's significantly less than their avg of 116.9 ppg in the playoffs for a reason, it's a brutal matchup.
We saw guards like Booker, Green and Reaves struggle with efficiency in these playoffs vs OKC, I find it tough to believe a rookie like Harper will be able to be efficient enough in this spot.
We were getting his pts line at 9.5 in easy matchups in blowout scripts where Harper was expected to get extended run in regular season, a 10.5 line in this extremely tough matchup on the road isn't warranted. It's inflated due to the first 2 rounds in easier matchups and shooting at an unsustainable clip.
Widely available across many different sites and sportsbooks, this line was plus money at time of post in discord on a few sites.
#Gambling𝕏 #NBA

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@UnderdogNBA What difference does it matter the game was over in the third quarter 😂
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@3OOJU @YourOCLakerFan i have a 10k payout bro i knew we was chalked 😂😂
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