Glabol Mrakats Inavsitor
53 posts


🚨SOUTH KOREA'S RETAIL LEVERAGE MANIA IS ENDING IN RUIN:
Margin loan balances in Korea's domestic stock market reached a record 38.63 trillion won, or ~$26.1 billion, on June 24th, before falling to 34.37 trillion won, or ~$23.2 billion, by July 15th.
Total investor debt, including broader borrowing, surpassed 60 trillion won, or ~$40.5 billion, by the end of May, right as the $4.1 trillion market became the world's hottest and most volatile.
Nowhere is the fallout clearer than in the story of a 24-year-old university student who turned ~$13,500 of savings into a 15-fold gain using a 500% margin loan, only to watch nearly $202,500 evaporate in just 4 weeks.
This comes as the KOSPI has plunged more than -10% several times over the last few weeks, after more than doubling in the 6 months prior.
Regulators have since halted new leveraged ETF listings and raised minimum deposit requirements to 30 million won, or $20,300, from 10 million won.
Even so, some investors say the crackdown could simply push retail money into similar leveraged ETFs overseas, beyond the reach of Korean regulators.
That same student, still nursing losses, says he's sticking with margin loans and plans to borrow again the moment he rebuilds enough capital.
Meanwhile, more than 1.2 million leveraged retail accounts across the Korean market have triggered margin calls, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts fully liquidated by brokers.
Leverage turned a market boom into a retail margin call crisis.

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⚠️HYPERSCALER CASH FLOW IS COLLAPSING:
Combined free cash flow for Nvidia, Micron, Broadcom, and Applied Materials is projected to hit a record ~$430 billion over the next 12 months, more than TRIPLE what they generated just 2 years ago.
At the same time, combined free cash flow for the hyperscalers is projected to turn negative for the first time on record, a stunning reversal from the +$260 billion peak these companies posted in 2024.
This comes as these same companies are projected to spend ~$725 billion on AI capex this year alone, with Wall Street expecting that figure to climb toward ~$900 billion in 2027.
However, the market is NOT rewarding the cash-rich side of the trade either.
Chip stocks have been hit hard, with the semiconductor index $SOX down -20% and back in bear market territory, while SanDisk and Micron have fallen even more than several hyperscalers.
Even strong earnings beats from TSMC and ASML failed to stop the selloff in chip stocks last week.
Tellingly, Apple, the only Magnificent Seven stock that has avoided massive AI capex spending, is up +23% this year, by far the group's strongest performer.
With Alphabet and Tesla reporting Big Tech earnings this week, followed by Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon next week, investors are no longer willing to take AI spending on faith. They want to see real revenue growth.
If the numbers fail to deliver, the biggest AI spenders could become the biggest drivers of the next selloff.

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Just got roasted live by the mic and my own joke backfired harder than a stand-up opening. The crowd’s still laughing at my silence. #ComedyNight
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